Vegas Play of the Day: Vanderbilt at Kentucky

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Oct. 8, 2016 | 2 a.m.

We’re entering the third season of the annual South Point-lined Play of the Day competition, effective July 1.

Starting bankrolls have reset to $10,000, with the maximum bet being to win $1,000 and the minimum wager $300. Ray Brewer won the 2015-2016 season, after Taylor Bern prevailed in 2014-2015.

Vanderbilt plus-3.5 at Kentucky: $550 to win $500

Having watched both of these teams, there’s no question in my mind that the Commodores are better. I was surprised the spread was this high, and metrics backed up my skepticism.

Vanderbilt ranks No. 83 in Football Outsiders’ F/+ rankings, while Kentucky is at No. 97. The stronger team shouldn’t be getting more than a field goal.

Vanderbilt’s defense is decent, a descriptor that can’t be applied to any unit Kentucky fields. The Commodores arguably deserved to beat Florida last week, outgaining them on an overall and per-play basis but losing the turnover margin in a 13-6 defeat as 12-point underdogs.

It was a much more passable performance than what Kentucky managed in Alabama. The Wildcats gave up nearly 500 yards and didn’t sniff the 200-yard mark themselves in a 34-6 loss at Alabama as 36-point underdogs.

Everyone around the program knows Kentucky coach Mark Stoops is on his way out. Vanderbilt coach Derek Mason is still fighting for his job.

So to review, Vanderbilt is the more efficient, more improved and better coached team. Why are the ‘Dores getting points again?

Current Standings: Bern (14-9, $12,297), Brewer (12-11, $10,305), Keefer (16-13-1, $10,131)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.