ASSOCIATED PRESS
Michigan running back Chris Evans (12) fights off Rutgers defenders as he runs with the ball during the second half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 8, 2016, in Piscataway, N.J.
Saturday, Oct. 15, 2016 | 2 a.m.
Related Coverage
One of the oldest unwritten rules of shrewd sports betting is to never lay an abundance of points on the road.
Michigan mocked that guideline last week in the latest example of why nothing is absolute in sports books. Despite coming into Saturday as the largest favorite on the board at minus-30 traveling to Rutgers, the Wolverines were covering within 22 minutes of game time.
They ended up nearly tripling the line, beating Rutgers 78-0 in one of the biggest blowouts in the modern era of college football. Luckily most bettors didn’t follow conventional wisdom, as 99 percent of the money at William Hill sports books was on Michigan as of Saturday morning.
Those gamblers were treated to one of the easiest wins imaginable, as Michigan piled up 600 yards while holding Rutgers to 39 yards, or less than 1 per play. It felt like the most publicly beneficial savage beatdown since Ohio State ruthlessly ran over Bowling Green 77-10 with a similar split of the 90-plus percent of the tickets on it in Week 1.
That only increases the anticipation for when the two hated rivals meet at the end of the season. Every year there’s a game stands out above the rest on the college football schedule, and this year it’s undoubtedly the regular-season finale that’s expected to decide the Big Ten East division.
Ohio State currently sits as a 9-point home favorite over Michigan ahead of the Nov. 26 showdown at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, where it opened minus-6 in the games of the year market over the summer.
Both teams still have minor obstacles, of course, with Ohio State’s toughest game by the odds coming tonight when it goes to Wisconsin as an 11-point favorite. Michigan projects as a bigger favorite than that in all of its remaining games, though road trips to Michigan State and Iowa could be somewhat in the same vicinity.
The destruction Michigan left in Piscataway, N.J., showed that bettors shouldn’t be shy about taking it on the road if the number is right.
Check below for Week 7 of college football by the odds, which previews and picks the 10 biggest games from a betting perspective every week and takes sides on extra games at the end. After an 8-6-1 showing last week, the overall record stands at 52-35-3.
-
North Carolina State plus-17.5 at Clemson, over/under: 61; 9 a.m. on ABC
The team at the top of the ACC Atlantic division is rolling now. Both of them are, actually.
Clemson and North Carolina State are the only teams with undefeated league records in what’s threatening the SEC West as the toughest division in the nation by the odds this year. They’ve both done it by getting past sluggish starts.
The Tigers have covered four straight since what now seems like a distant memory of eking out victories over Auburn and Troy to start the season. The Wolfpack are on a three-game against the spread win streak after it looked like they would fall into the same disappointing pattern that had them at 16-20-1 against the spread under coach Dave Doeren coming into this season.
Matthew Dayes is getting much of the credit for NC State, but its defense is what’s truly stood out. NC State ranks ninth in the nation against FBS opponents in giving up only 4.4 yards per play behind emergent junior pass rushers Bradley Chubb and Kentavius Street.
Clemson is one of the few teams rating even higher, giving up only 4.1 yards per play with senior linebacker Ben Boulware leading a defense that lost most of its other stars from last year’s national championship game appearance.
Guess: Clemson minus-17.5
-
Kansas State plus-14 at Oklahoma, over/under: 59.5; 9 a.m. on ESPN
Sharp bettors aren’t swayed by emotion, as their focus remains solely on getting the best numbers.
This game could work as an example. The betting public likely would have stayed away from both sides this week if they burned them in the same fashion they did the big-money gamblers last week.
Steam shot up the lines on both Oklahoma and Kansas State in Week 6. Oklahoma went from a 10- to as high as a 14-point favorite against Texas last week, but allowed a late touchdown to win only 45-40 and not cover any spread.
Kansas State went from minus-7 to as high as minus-10 in a similar situation where it gave up a score in the final seconds to surrender the cash in a 44-38 win.
But this game took a surprising amount of action early in the week. And it was almost all on Oklahoma.
The Sooners rose quickly from a 10-point favorite, as high-stakes players weren’t afraid to go with them again. What the Sooners did last week was scary.
They became only the fifth team ever to field a 300-yard passer, Baker Mayfield, a 200-yard rusher, Samaje Perine, and a 200-yard receiver, Dede Westbrook. The Sooners outgained the Longhorns by nearly 250 yards, while the Wildcats were on the other side, outgained by more than 250 yards against the Red Raiders.
Guess: Kansas State plus-14
-
Wake Forest plus-21 at Florida State, over/under: 53.5; 12:30 p.m. on ESPN
By losing two of its first five games, Florida State became one of the first teams in the nation to clinch “under” tickets cashing on its win total.
Wake Forest could become one of the first to go “over” this afternoon, as it’s a victory away from eclipsing the total of 5.5 wins set by oddsmakers in the offseason. The odds don’t like the Demon Deacons’ chances, given that the current moneyline of minus-1600 on the Seminoles in the game implies only a 7 percent chance of the upset.
But the likelihood of Florida State getting off to such an up-and-down start to the season wasn’t significantly higher than that. The Seminoles were a popular pick to make the College Football Playoff in the offseason, with money coming in on their over 10 wins as action also drove down their price to win the national championship to 7-to-1.
Florida State is now 300-to-1 to win the title, needing complete upheaval to have any shot at the playoff field even after edging Miami 17-16 as 2-point underdogs last week.
Florida State’s struggling defense did appear to get on track in the victory, holding a high-powered Miami to 4.6 yards per play.
Wake Forest is also coming off its best defensive showing of the year, limiting Syracuse to nine points and 4.9 yards per play.
Guess: Florida State minus-21
-
Alabama minus-14 at Tennessee, over/under: 57.5; 12:30 p.m. on CBS
Tennessee’s magic wore off in overtime of a 45-38 loss to Texas A&M as 7.5-point underdogs last week.
The betting public’s support withered away like a light smoke right along with it. The Volunteers are being bet against more than any other week this year going into today’s game, as the Crimson Tide opened as only 10-point favorites.
By kickoff at this rate, they could be laying the same two-touchdown price as they did last week at Arkansas. Alabama had no trouble with that, as they were covering within the opening 10 minutes and held on above the number with a 49-30 victory.
The Crimson Tide forced five turnovers, including three interceptions by sophomore cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick. Tennessee was committing giveaways, as it lost five fumbles and threw two interceptions at Texas A&M.
That took away from an otherwise spectacular day from senior quarterback Joshua Dobbs, who racked up more than 450 yards of offense. Dobbs has shown flashes in covering against Alabama in each of the last two seasons.
But it’s been nine years since Tennessee took down Alabama outright.
Play: Tennessee plus-14
-
Nebraska minus-3 at Indiana, over/under: 56.5; 12:30 p.m. on ESPN2
Cue the “Pros vs. Joes” clichés.
No game on the board will divide recreational bettors and their more serious counterparts than this inter-division Big Ten showdown. The vast majority of the tickets will be on Nebraska; the vast majority of the bigger money will be on Indiana.
And it didn’t take until game day for the pattern to present itself. Nebraska drew about 70 percent of the bets through Thursday, yet the line swayed four points from opening at minus-7.
The support on both sides is understandable. Nebraska is undefeated and drawing dark horse playoff hype behind veteran quarterback Tommy Armstrong and running back Terrell Newby.
The Cornhuskers hadn’t lost against the spread all year until beating Illinois 31-16 as a 21-point favorite last week.
But Indiana has been far more explosive — rating 10th in Football Outsiders’ IsoPPP metric to Nebraska’s 47th — with quarterback Richard Lagow regularly striking big plays to receivers Nick Westbrook and Ricky Jones.
Indiana has covered in both of its Big Ten games, beating Michigan State outright as 5-point underdogs and losing 38-17 to Ohio State when getting 28 points on the line. The Hoosiers’ last against the spread loss was in a 33-28 defeat to Wake Forest as 7-point favorites when they had a 259-yard edge but a minus-5 turnover margin.
Lean: Over 56.5 points
-
North Carolina plus-7 at Miami, over/under: 64.5; 12:30 p.m. on ABC
Whichever team responds better to disappointment should cash this afternoon in South Florida.
That doesn’t mean the Hurricanes and Tar Heels are dealing with the same type of disappointment. The fallout from the first ACC losses by the two preseason favorites to win the Coastal division feels much different.
North Carolina has far more problems in need of repair after getting blown out 34-3 as 2.5-point favorites hosting Virginia Tech. Junior quarterback Mitch Trubisky’s ascent was halted as he totaled only 58 passing yards with two interceptions.
Meanwhile, Miami is back to sorting through the heartbreak of another bizarre loss to rival Florida State. The Hurricanes, 1.5-point favorites, would have tied the game with less than two minutes to go but the Seminoles blocked an extra point from Michael Badgley to win 20-19.
Most heavy-volume bettors celebrated both results, as Florida State and Virginia Tech were two of the sharper sides in ACC games last week. More money appears to have come on North Carolina this week, as the spread lost a hook from its opening number.
It’s certainly a must-win for both teams. One conference loss isn’t damning in a division as competitive as the Coastal, but two would be much tougher to come back from.
Play: Miami minus-7
-
Ole Miss minus-7.5 at Arkansas, over/under: 67; 4 p.m. on ESPN
Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly usually finishes the fight in sports books.
It seems like the senior Clemson transfer can’t help himself, as he was already the subject of mockery for his brashness and now has added to it with his bye-week exploits. Kelly rushed onto the field of a high school football game when a brawl broke out after his younger brother suffered a late hit, but didn’t throw any punches before being restrained.
The jokes have flown ever since, but it’s no laughing matter what Kelly has done for bettors. He’s 12-6 against the spread as a starter for the Rebels the last two years, and has been extremely efficient so far this year.
Kelly is averaging 9.2 yards per passing attempt with 13 touchdowns to four interceptions. The SEC quarterback closest to him in passer rating is Arkanas junior Austin Allen, who’s thrown for 8.7 yards per attempt and 15 touchdowns to five interceptions.
But Arkansas is on a three-game skid against the spread, having not developed the caliber of running game it wants to build its offense around. The Razorbacks are only averaging 3.5 yards per rushing attempt against FBS opponents, making the Rebels’ own mediocre 4.6 yard per rush look much better when juxtaposed.
Lean: Ole Miss minus-7.5
-
Stanford plus-3 at Notre Dame, over/under: 55; 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Stanford and Notre Dame can commiserate with each other. They’re equally disappointing.
Despite both teams enduring seasons that have fallen fall short of expectations, the spread in their meeting remains unchanged. Notre Dame is the same three-point favorite it was this summer when games of the year lines were unveiled.
It might be surprising to look back and think this now afterthought of a matchup projected as the premier showdown of Week 7 just a couple months ago. Notre Dame lost its third of four both straight-up and against the spread at North Carolina State last week, 10-3 as a 2.5-point underdog.
The Irish’s offense full of talented playmakers like quarterback DeShone Kizer and running back Josh Adams could never ignite in the wet conditions caused by the aftermath of Hurricane Matthew. The Cardinal were even worse, losing 42-16 as 7-point favorites at home against Washington State, with their own quarterback/running back duo of Ryan Burns and Christian McCaffrey similarly underwhelming.
Betting action is split. No one can decide which team is more positioned to turn around its struggles.
Lean: Stanford plus-3
-
Arizona State plus-12 at Colorado, over/under: 61; 5 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks
An inflated line doesn’t necessarily mean a bad line.
Sometimes there are valid reasons for a point spread to be pumped higher than it should be devoid of context. Arizona State isn’t 12 points worse than Colorado, but it might be 12 points worse than Colorado when playing without a quarterback.
The Sun Devils are at risk of that after having already lost both players in their preseason position battle to injury. Sophomore Manny Wilkins, the original starter, could be back this week, but if not, the controls fall to freshman Dillon Sterling-Cole.
Colorado’s quarterback situation is also unresolved, though backup Stephen Montez has played as well as starter Sefo Liufau in filling in due to injury over the last two games.
The Buffaloes now sit alone as the last undefeated team against the spread in the nation after losing to USC 21-17 as 5-point underdogs last week. It was a fortunate cover as USC receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster slid to run out the clock instead of scoring late in the game, but it counts all the same.
The winner of this game will sit at the top of the Pac-12 South Division despite season-opening odds listing the teams as two of the three biggest long shots in the league.
Guess: Colorado minus-12
-
Ohio State minus-11 at Wisconsin, over/under: 44.5; 5 p.m. on ABC
Wisconsin has covered against the teams that came into the season second and third in odds to win the Big Ten in its last two games.
Now it’s time for the Badgers to test themselves against the prohibitive favorites. They’ll have to do it without the support of the betting market, as Ohio State remains this season’s most popularly bet team.
The Buckeyes’ first non-cover of the season, a 38-17 win as 28-point favorites against Indiana last week, did nothing to slow the public's excitement. They’ve grown from a 10-point favorite at Camp Randall despite their worst performance of the year — and not only against the spread.
Junior quarterback J.T. Barrett went only 9-for-21 throwing for 93 yards, as Ohio State dropped out of the top 10 nationally in yards per play. The Buckeyes are now 11th at 6.8.
They’re still second defensively in giving up only 3.6 yards per play. Wisconsin couldn’t navigate the one team ahead of Ohio State, as it earned only eight first downs against Michigan, so the game may come down to if freshman quarterback Alex Hornibrook improved during a bye week.
Like Ohio State, Wisconsin has only failed to cover once this year and it came against its most anonymous opponent. The Badgers slipped past Georgia State 23-17 as 36-point favorites.
Lean: Wisconsin plus-11
-
Extra points
UCLA plus-8 at Washington State The Cougars have won a combined 93-49 the last two weeks, but that came against two deeply flawed teams so there’s no better time to sell high. Even if Josh Rosen doesn’t play, this is too many points.
Northern Illinois plus-3 vs. Central Michigan Huskies are finally getting it together, while the Chippewas are slowly falling apart. This line is at least three points too high.
Northwestern plus-7 at Michigan State Odds still haven’t caught up to how much Michigan State, which has dropped three in a row straight-up and against the spread, is struggling. Northwestern might not only be better, but also fresher coming off of a bye.
Syracuse plus-20.5 vs. Virginia Tech It’s as if Michael Vick and Andre Davis are back with the amount of love the Hokies are taking after last week’s decimation of North Carolina. While Virginia Tech is back close to its heyday on defense, there’s still a long way to go on offense and being worthy of a spread this large.
Georgia Southern plus-11 at Georgia Tech This is the biggest game of the year for the Eagles, which run the triple option as well as the Yellow Jackets. They’ve fixated on this date ever since losing in the closing seconds of the first-ever meeting between the teams last year.
Nevada-Reno plus-2.5 at San Jose State San Jose State might be the worst team in the nation, and shouldn’t lay points against anyone. There’s more talent on the Wolf Pack roster, making it only a question of if coach Brian Polian is capable of utilizing it.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
Join the Discussion:
Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.
Full comments policy