Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 1 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Sept. 8, 2016 | 2 a.m.

For the last five years, sports books have made an investment opportunity as safe as U.S. savings bonds available to NFL bettors in the offseason.

Gamblers only needed to wager on the Jacksonville Jaguars to go under their season win total, wait a few months and collect a sum of nearly double their initial stake. The NFL’s most recent laughing-stock franchise mostly enabled the approach to be a low-risk affair, as the Jaguars hadn’t even threatened beating their over/under until last season. Jacksonville lost its last three contests to finish 5-11, just short of its preseason win total of 5.5.

But golden moneymaking ventures never last forever. Don’t expect to recoup any assets banking on the Jaguars prolonging their streak of futility this year.

In fact, rush down to a CG Technology sports book and bet on the Jaguars to go over 7 wins. The upside will cash this season.

Jacksonville has stayed patient as general manger David Caldwell and coach Gus Bradley have built over the last three seasons, and this year will reap the benefits. The Jaguars finally fielded a decent offense last year, as they averaged 5.5 yards per play with Allen Robinson emerging as one of the game’s best receivers and Blake Bortles taking a step toward being a solid NFL quarterback.

The Jaguars’ defense wasn’t too far behind and gets injected with a major talent boost this season. Highly drafted Jalen Ramsey, Myles Jack and Dante Fowler will all play their rookie seasons, while free agents Malik Jackson, Prince Amukmara and Tashaun Gipson also come into the fold.

Count Jacksonville over 7 victories along with Oakland under 8.5 wins and Buffalo under 8 wins as the final over/under bets of the season for Talking Points, before getting to the real objective — picking the games.

The blog is coming off a strong year, 140-118-9, picking every game in the 2015-16 season.

Read below for Week 1 of this year’s picks column, where we’ll pick every game each week in three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses.

Plays (0-0)

New Orleans Saints minus-1 vs. Oakland Raiders Two years ago, it was seen as lunacy to bet against the Saints in the Superdome. After two mediocre home seasons, there are suddenly lines stretching out of sports books looking to bet on a team there that’s notoriously struggled in early kickoffs across the country. That makes it clear the pendulum has swung: The Saints are now undervalued at home.

Baltimore Ravens minus-3 vs. Buffalo Bills Baltimore is a bet-on as long it’s healthy. Being the most injured team in the league was only part of the Ravens’ immense misfortune last year as they also suffered from a minus-14 turnover margin and seven losses of less than a touchdown, a pair of figures that should improve.

Dallas Cowboys plus-1.5 vs. New York Giants Dak Prescott offers more promise than last year’s fill-ins for Tony Romo. Prescott and fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliot should find plenty of room to run behind what’s still one of the best offensive lines ever assembled facing a mediocre Giants’ defensive front.

Leans (0-0)

New York Jets plus-2.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals Must fade the sentiment that the Bengals immediately pick up the form that had them at 9-2 straight-up, 10-1-1 against the spread before Andy Dalton got hurt last year. And even if they do, the Jets were no easy out themselves in 2015 with the second-best against-the-spread record in the AFC behind the Bengals.

Chicago Bears plus-6.5 at Houston Texans The betting market’s love for the Texans, which opened as low as a 4-point favorite in this spot, is confounding. Here’s a reminder that they were getting shredded 30-0 by the Chiefs at last sighting, and haven’t laid this many points since 2014.

Denver Broncos plus-3 vs. Carolina Panthers Working under the assumption that both the Broncos and Panthers regress at roughly the same rate after winning their respective conferences last year, simple math reveals this line as faulty. Denver is only getting a 1.5-point adjustment on the point spread playing on its home field, which holds one of the best advantages in the NFL no less, after pummeling Carolina 24-10 on a neutral field in Super Bowl 50.

Kansas City Chiefs minus-7 vs. San Diego Chargers Some sharp support has come in on San Diego, which makes for the implication that the Chargers are undervalued coming into the year. It’s just as likely, however, that the Chiefs are being offered at a discount as their stretch of playing like the NFL’s best team over the second half of last season feels forgotten.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-3 at Atlanta Falcons There are more compelling reasons to expect improvement from Tampa Bay than Atlanta. Leading the Buccaneers’ list is a year of development for quarterback Jameis Winston and the addition of former Falcons coach Mike Smith as defensive coordinator, a position he’s previously thrived in with the Jaguars.

San Francisco 49ers plus-2.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams The excitement on the Rams relocating to Los Angeles and appearing on “Hard Knocks” has bettors wagering on them in every capacity. Preparing to take the resultant value by going against them until the hype dies down.

Pittsburgh Steelers minus-3 at Washington Redskins Washington somehow evaded what were far and away the four best offenses in the NFL by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings last season. Facing a Pittsburgh attack favored to finish in the top spot this season feels like comeuppance for a weak Washington defense.

Guesses (0-0)

Minnesota Vikings minus-1.5 at Tennessee Titans Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer is one of the best in the NFL, having gone 18-14 straight-up and 23-9 against the spread. Tennessee coach Mike Mularkey is not, entering the season with records of 18-39 straight-up and 26-30-1 against the spread.

Cleveland Browns plus-4 at Philadelphia Eagles The Browns may have lucked into opening the season against one of the only teams in as much of a rebuilding state as their own perpetual position there. There are no indications that Philadelphia quarterback Carson Wentz is ready to start in the NFL.

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-5.5 vs. Green Bay Packers Not the ideal spot to put my trust in the Jaguars into motion, but 94 percent of the money wagered so far at William Hill sports books is on the road team. Going contrarian is therefore more desirable in a game where the number looks right.

Indianapolis Colts minus-3.5 vs. Detroit Lions Hedging an earlier position on the Lions now that the spread has moved closer in line with personal projections and with thoughts on the Colts having improved. Hoping for a 4-point Indianapolis win to cash in on a slim middle.

Miami Dolphins plus-10.5 at Seattle Seahawks Miami’s destructive defensive line — the starters are Cameron Wake, Ndamukong Suh, Earl Mitchell and Mario Williams — create just enough of a mismatch against Seattle’s perennially poor offensive line to keep this close, or at least make for the possibility of a backdoor cover. The Seahawks only opened as a 7.5-point favorite.

Arizona Cardinals minus-6 vs. New England Patriots The best game of Week 1 also looks like the hardest to call with no sufficient way to project what the Patriots will get out of replacement quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Therefore, let's pick against the team traveling across the country for a late kickoff against an opponent that’s terrorized the whole NFL when healthy.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.