Five sports, five bets: What to wager on this weekend

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Aug. 15, 2020 | 2 a.m.

NBA bubble action is slowing but not going away just yet.

With games scheduled throughout the day, bettors have been gambling around the clock on basketball for the last two weeks. Six teams are packing up and heading home from Disney World, however, after the eight-game regular season portion of the restart concluded Friday night.

The only matter of business left before playoffs begin on Monday is figuring out the identity of the final team leaving the resort. The Portland Trail Blazers and Memphis Grizzlies face off this afternoon, and then again on Sunday if the latter wins, in a play-in round for the final round.

It’s one of the headliners of a busy sports weekend that the column is diving fully into. It’s another week of no future bets, as I’m going exclusively with plays that will have a resolution in the next 48 hours.

Read below for this week’s five picks. Records are attached individually by league with the monetary figure calculating the success of a hypothetical bettor placing a $100 wager on every pick that’s run in the column. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time.

Golf (4-1-1, $224.89): Billy Horschel minus-125 vs. Si Woo Kim in third round of the Wyndham Championship at Circa Sports

This weekend's PGA Tour event is Billy Horschel's to lose.

That may sound bold with a four-way tie at the top of the leaderboard through the first two rounds, and an additional 21 players within three strokes. But Horschel was my favorite play coming into the week in Greensboro, NC., and I'm sure not going to back down now that he has a share of the lead.

He's a golfer who does practically everything well and is unlucky to be sitting on only three professional wins with none in two and a half years. He's played well enough to have amassed more hardware and, at worst, should turn in two more solid rounds.

The latter doesn't apply to Kim, who may win this tournament for the second time in four years but also may flame out and wind up outside of the top 20. Consistency isn't his strong suit; there's a great deal of variance inherent in every round the South Korean star plays.

Horschel's steadiness makes laying this price an easy ask. Look for any possible ways to back him over the next two days. 

NBA (1-1, -$9.10): Memphis Grizzlies plus-6 vs. Portland Trail Blazers at Circa Sports

“The Dame Show” can’t keep this pace forever.

Damian Lillard has carried the Blazers into the No. 8 seed in the western conference playoffs with one of the most spectacular eight-game stretches of all-time. Portland has gone 6-2 in the NBA bubble including three straight wins where Lillard has averaged 51 points per game.

Memphis is a lot better defensively than those last three opponents, though, as the Blazers have already seen in Orlando. The teams squared off in the second day of the restart and the Grizzlies held Lillard to 29 points in a dead-even game.

Portland ultimately prevailed 140-135 in overtime but notably came into the game as a 3.5-point favorite. There’s no taking away what Portland has done in the bubble — and it will almost surely be advancing to the playoffs as it’s hard to imagine Memphis winning back-to-back matchups as would be required — but a 2.5-point shift largely because of an unsustainable scoring stretch is too much.  

NHL (2-2, $18.33): Boston Bruins minus-116 vs. Carolina Hurricanes at Circa Sports

Imagine getting this short of a price with the Bruins against almost anyone in the NHL two weeks ago. Or don't, because it's impossible.

Boston was the most efficient team in the league all season, and while it's struggled in the Eastern Conference bubble in Toronto, there's a larger sample indicating they're still one of the teams to beat. The series with Carolina is tied at one win apiece but Boston has created more scoring chances and tallied more expected goals.

And that's without star David Pastrnak in Game 2 as the winger was ruled out shortly before puck drop. He's expected to return today, but even if he's not in the lineup, these odds on the Bruins are too juicy to pass up.

It's taking them a while to get going, but this is still the same team that ran roughshod over the rest of the league and scooped the President's Trophy just a few months ago. 

UFC (4-5, -$279): Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier under 2.5 rounds plus-135 at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

With all the excitement revolving around a championship main event to determine the greatest heavyweight in UFC history, it’s easy to lose sight of the fact that both Cormier and Miocic have their troubles at this point of their career.

Neither the 41-year-old Cormier nor the 37-year-old Miocic can take a punch like they could when they were younger. They’ve each knocked each other out in each of their first two fights, and in a pick’em rubber match, it’s likely one of them does again — and quick.

This will be their first fight taking place in the 25-foot octagon, and that’s no small thing to gloss over. Studies, and the eye test on top of it, have proven that the smaller cage — the regular dimensions are 30 feet — stimulates more action and leads to more stoppages.

A counter argument could be that this fight may not be a striking battle, as Cormier has shown signs he intends to wrestle Miocic more than their first five rounds at battle. But that’s not a detriment to this bet either.

Ground-and-pound can be just as lethal when a pair of 235-pound men with declining ability to take a punch are involved.

NASCAR (5-4, $166.91): Matt DiBenedetto minus-120 vs. Aric Almirola in Go Bowling 235 at William Hill

Throw out most of what has happened in the current Cup season when handicapping Sunday’s race. With NASCAR heading into the Daytona road course, it’s far more important to look at what has happened previously on road courses.

And DiBenedetto was a terror on road courses last year, not pulling down wins in any of the three races but competing in all of them. Almirola was the opposite.

Both drivers have put together strong seasons so far, but Almirola probably has a leg-up based on recent form and equipment. Those edges will go out of the window on road courses.

A 50-to-1 shot to win, DiBenedetto is being mispriced in what could slowly be turning into a specialty of his.

Lifetime column record: 23-18-1, $261.04

Previous, pending bets: NC Dinos will not win KBO Series at minus-230; Indianapolis Colts over 9 wins at minus-125; Kiwoom Heroes to win KBO Series at plus-600; New York Jets to win the AFC East at plus-900; Rakuten Golden Eagles to win Japan Championship Series at plus-500; Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East at minus-110; Houston Astros to win the World Series at 12-to-1; Denver Broncos under 8 wins at minus-120

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.