What to watch and how to bet at UFC 290

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, July 7, 2023 | 2 a.m.

UFC 290 is perhaps the most uncompetitive fight card in promotional history on paper.

The pay-per-view capper to International Fight Week on Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena is high on star power if not intriguing matchups; just not ones that are particularly evenly-matched by the betting odds.

Gone are the days when the UFC’s biggest events wouldn’t feature a favorite of more than -200 (i.e. risking $200 to win $100) in sight. This time around, it’s difficult to find a single fight without a favorite of at least -200.

There are three such bouts on the card — Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield, Shannon Ross vs. Jesus Aguilar and Kamuela Kirk vs. Esteban Ribovics — but all of them are buried deep on the preliminary card.

The final eight fights of the card feature a favorite at an average price of -800. Granted, that mean is massively skewed by middleweight super-prospect Bo Nickal shaping up as the biggest favorite in UFC history at -3000 with short-notice newcomer opponent Val Woodburn coming back at +1200 (i.e. risking $100 to win $1,200).

I’m not going waste time handicapping that squash match, but I’ll place bets on the other four main-card bouts below with three bonus plays on the preliminary card.

All the plays will be tracked in the weekend wagers column, which will make its return on Saturday. Find all seven bets below, which are placed at the denoted sports book in Las Vegas with the best odds on the chosen side. Listed odds on each fight come from the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas.

Featherweight unification bout: Alexander Volkanovski (-380) vs. Yair Rodriguez (+290)

Rodriguez is a highly dangerous striker; Volkanovski is a nearly perfect striker.

Over the course of 25 minutes, it’s difficult not to see the latter winning out. Volkanovski’s technique should be the difference.

The longtime champion is too sound to take much damage, and too relentless not to find his own openings. A price tag of -400 on Volkanovski to win outright is bit prohibitive, but taking him at +155 to win inside the distance or +220 by knockout is an easier sell.

There’s a chance Volkanovski takes Rodriguez down to the ground and forces a tap, but the victory feels more likely to come by strikes so let’s gamble on the higher price.

Bet: Volkanovski by KO/TKO/DQ at +220, $150 to win $330 at Boyd Sports

Flyweight championship bout: Brandon Moreno (-190) vs. Alexandre Pantoja (+160)

The champion Moreno is hovering around a -200 favorite in the co-main event and not climbing any higher for one primary reason: Pantoja’s successful history against him.

Pantoja beat Moreno twice, in 2016 and 2018, and now gets a chance to make it thrice for a belt. But the first two wins were a long time ago and are holding too much influence in the betting market.

Moreno has gotten significantly better since then. So has Pantoja, some may argue, but Moreno is far more well-rounded and has proven capable of keeping up a high pace in a 25-minute fight.

The 27-year-old Moreno is also entering his prime, while the 33-year-old Pantoja is moving out of it — especially in a light weight class like at 125 pounds where the aging curve is more pronounced.   

Take away the first two fights in this series and the line is closer to -300. It should be at least -250.  

Bet: Moreno at -190, $380 to win $200 at SuperBook

Middleweight bout: Robert Whittaker (-400) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (+300)

Let’s take Du Plessis at his word with the South African pleding he’s fixed his cardio issues going into the biggest fight of his career.

Du Plessis might be underrated after having won his first five fights in the octagon, but Whittaker is a significant step-up in competition as the rightfully-ranked No. 2 middleweight in the world. Whittaker should pick apart Du Plessis on the feet to notch a win, but most likely not enough to secure a stoppage.

This matchup feels like a competitive boxing match where both men have their moments, at least more than current odds are implying.

Bet: Over 2.5 rounds at +140, $150 to win $210 at Circa Sports

Lightweight bout: Jalin Turner (-300) vs. Dan Hooker (+240)

Turner’s 77-inch reach has bothered virtually everyone he’s faced in the 155-pound division, and Hooker shouldn’t be any exception.

Hooker might be the bigger name based on his history of big-name opponents over the last decade — including Rodriguez and current lightweight champion Islam Makhachev — but he’s lost four of his last six and might be on the downside of his career. He’s primarily a striker, but has developed his grappling admirably over the years.

His ground game still might not be ready for Turner, though. “The Tarantula” has repeatedly used his length to his advantage to frustrate and ultimately choke out opponents.

The same has a good chance to occur here.

Bet: Turner by submission at +250, $130 to win $325 at Boyd Sports

Light heavyweight bout: Jimmy Crute (-130) vs. Alonzo Menifield (+110)

These two fought four months ago at UFC 284 with Crute reaching as high as a -230 favorite.

The bout ultimately ended in a draw after the referee penalized Menifield one point for repeated fence grabs. The competitive nature of the fight showed the line should have never been that high, but now it’s over-adjusted.

Shooting all the way down to as low as -120 on Crute is not justified. The Australian is a crisper striker, and overall better fighter as long as he can dodge Menifield’s big-time power.

The market expected Crute to be able to do so the first time they fought, and shouldn’t have this much hesitance in the rematch.

Bet: Crute at -120, $300 to win $250 at STN Sports

Light heavyweight bout: Vitor Petrino (-240) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+190)

I’ve pointed out and somewhat maligned the chalky nature of UFC 290, and then proceeded to pick all favorites anyway.

That ends here. The early prelims is where bettors can find a big underdog with some fight.

Neither Petrino nor Prachnio are sure-things at light heavyweight, as either is capable of landing a big punch to stop the fight prematurely.

Why can’t it be the more experienced and tested Dutch fighter? Petrino, a Brazilian, has the flashier undefeated record but his level of competition leaves much to be desired.

This matchup is closer than the market indicates.

Bet: Prachnio at +240, $100 to win $240 at BetMGM

Lightweight bout: Kamuela Kirk (+120) vs. Esteban Ribovics (-140)

Kirk is moving up from featherweight to lightweight, a traditionally tricky shift with bigger and stronger opponents awaiting, but he may have found a soft landing spot.

Ribovics is talented but can’t stop a takedown. Kirk figures to have a wrestling edge, and the resulting control time could go a long way towards him building up a lead on the scorecards.

Ribovics is more likely to win if the bout doesn’t reach the scorecards, but a fight this tightly-contested feels destined to go the full three rounds.

Bet: Kirk at +125, $200 to win $250 at BetMGM

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or