Charlie Riedel / Associated Press
Houston forward Ja’Vier Francis dunks the ball during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Texas Tech in the semifinal round of the Big 12 Conference tournament, Friday, March 15, 2024, in Kansas City, Mo. Houston won 82-59.
Sunday, March 17, 2024 | 7 p.m.
Note: Full opening point spreads from Circa Sports for the first set of NCAA Tournament games are posted at the bottom of the page.
The past week of conference tournaments should have served as a reminder to the millions gearing up to bet on the NCAA Tournament: There’s a reason college basketball this time of year is referred to as “madness.”
Rarely does everything on courts across the country play out neatly to form — especially so far this year.
The betting favorite prevailed in only a little more than a fourth of the conference tournaments — nine out of 34. Does that unpredictability portend a similarly upset-ridden next three weeks as the “big dance” plays down from 68 teams starting with Tuesday’s “First Four” games in Dayton to a national champion crowned on April 8 in Phoenix?
It could.
There’s a clear favorite leading the field, defending champion and overall No. 1 seed Connecticut at a near consensus 4-to-1 to cut down the nets, but that distinction has traditionally been more of a curse than a blessing.
The pre-tournament favorite hasn’t cashed in in the event since 2018 when Villanova marched to the title with odds of around 6-to-1 behind Naismith Player of the Year Jalen Brunson.
A team hasn’t won priced as short as Connecticut this year since 2012 when Kentucky cruised as a 2-to-1 favorite behind Naismith Player of the Year Anthony Davis.
Purdue’s Zach Edey is expected to take home his second Naismith trophy this year and his team is the third choice at +650 (i.e. risking $100 to win $650) at Circa Sports. Houston — a No. 1 seed for the second straight year alongside Purdue — is the second choice at 6-to-1.
Want to back the blueblood teams with perhaps the most NBA talent? No. 3 seed Kentucky at 23-to-1 and No. 4 seed Duke at 26-to-1 are among the most popular choices in the futures market.
Or maybe it’s worth considering the teams playing their best basketball at the end of the year? No. 2 seed Iowa State at 16-to-1 and No. 4 seed Auburn at 23-to-1 both crushed their way to tournament titles this weekend in the Big 12 and SEC, respectively.
Connecticut was the only the major-conference team to win its tournament as a favorite, becoming Big East tournament champions at -125 (i.e. risking $125 to win $100). But winning a conference tournament is far from an harbinger of NCAA success traditionally.
The Huskies themselves lost in the semifinals of last year’s Big East tournament before winning the national championship.
Only three of the last 10 national champions also won their conference tournaments.
National champions don’t fit into any singular tidy profile. That’s not how single-elimination tournaments function.
A lot of unexpected moments happen, and that usually includes the conclusion.
That’s worth keeping in mind when placing bets over the next few days, or even while just filling out a bracket.
Find opening odds for the first set of games below. Keep in mind that many moved immediately so these numbers are best to use as reference. These all come from Circa Sports, which were taking the biggest bets in town — a $5,000 maximum — within an hour of the selection show.
First Four
No. 16 seed Wagner +3 vs. No. 16 seed Howard
No. 10 seed Colorado State -2 vs. No. 10 seed Virginia
No. 16 seed Montana State -3 vs. No. 16 seed Grambling St.
No. 10 seed Colorado -2.5 vs. No. 10 seed Boise St.
East Region
No. 1 seed Connecticut -25.5 vs. No. 16 seed Stetson
No. 8 seed Florida Atlantic -2.5 vs. No. 9 seed Northwestern
No. 5 seed San Diego State -6 vs. No. 12 seed UAB
No. 4 seed Auburn -14 vs. No. 13 seed Yale
No. 6 seed BYU -6.5 vs. No.11 seed Duquense
No. 3 seed Illinois -12 vs. No. 14 seed Morehead State
No. 7 seed Washington State pick’em vs. No. 10 seed Drake
No. 2 seed Iowa State -16 vs. No. 15 seed South Dakota State
West Region
No. 8 seed Mississippi State +1 vs. No. 9 seed Michigan State
No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s -5.5 vs. No. 12 seed Grand Canyon
No. 4 seed Alabama -11 vs. No. 13 seed Charleston
No. 6 seed Clemson +3 vs. No. 11 seed New Mexico
No. 3 seed Baylor -13 vs. No. 14 seed Colgate
No. 7 seed Dayton +1 vs. No. 10 seed UNR
No. 2 seed Arizona -20 vs. No. 15 seed Long Beach State
South Region
No. 1 seed Houston -23 vs. No. 16 seed Longwood
No. 8 seed Nebraska pick’em vs. No. 9 seed Texas A&M
No. 5 seed Wisconsin -5 vs. No. 12 seed James Madison
No. 4 seed Duke -12 vs. No. 13 seed Vermont
No. 6 seed Texas Tech -4 vs. No. 11 seed NC State
No. 3 seed Kentucky -13 vs. No. 14 seed Oakland
No. 2 seed Marquette -14 vs. No. 15 seed Western Kentucky
Midwest Region
No. 8 seed Utah State +2.5 vs. No. 9 seed TCU
No. 5 seed Gonzaga -7 vs. No. 12 seed McNeese State
No. 4 seed Kansas -7 vs. No. 13 seed Samford
No. 6 seed South Carolina -1.5 vs. No. 11 seed Oregon
No. 3 seed Creighton -12 vs. No. 14 seed Akron
No. 2 seed Tennessee -20 vs. No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
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