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Friday, Oct. 25, 2013 | 2 a.m.
Using betting lines as the basis for their argument, pessimists could conclude that this NFL season is revealing parity as a myth.
Sun's NFL betting game of week 8
- Which big favorite do you think has the best chance to cover this week?
- Seahawks minus-11 at Rams — 28.3%
- Packers minus-9 at Vikings — 23.0%
- Saints minus-11 vs. Bills — 19.0%
- 49ers minus-17 vs. Jaguars — 16.8%
- Broncos minus-13 vs. Redskins — 12.8%
This poll is closed, see Full Results »
Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.
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A season that’s already produced the largest favorite in NFL history is now featuring one of the most unevenly matched weeks in memory. Of the 12 games scheduled between now and Monday Night Football in week 8, as many as five could close with a double-digit favorite.
At this point last year, there were seven teams that had taken 10 points or more in a game. There have already been 13 in 2013.
The performance of those unsavory dogs, however, could present a lingering case of competitiveness as they’ve gone 7-5-1 against the spread with three outright victories.
Screaming out “small sample size” on the double-digit underdogs is both unnecessary and untrue. Their success is well-documented going back many years.
Teams taking 10 points or more covered at a profitable 54 percent clip from 1988-2011, according to research conducted by WagerMinds.
Keeping that in mind, the three sportswriters in the Sun’s NFL handicapping contest may have made a shrewd move in mostly refraining from the double-digit favorites lurking all over the betting board. The New Orleans Saints minus-11 hosting the Buffalo Bills were the only team laying a big number that any of the three took with their six weekly picks, which are available at the bottom of the page.
New Orleans hasn’t given that large of a number since 2011, when it went 2-1 against the spread and straight-up in the scenario. Buffalo has already covered a double-digit line once this season, narrowly falling to the New England Patriots 23-21 as 10-point underdogs in week 1.
Two of the Sun’s prognosticators jumped on New Orleans — which is coming off of a bye week sporting a 5-1 straight-up, 4-2 against-the-spread record — this week. Two also took the lone team teetering between a single- and double-digit underdog Sunday.
The Minnesota Vikings shot as high as plus-10 at home against the Green Bay Packers after quarterback Josh Freeman’s freakishly horrendous 20-for-53 passing debut in purple. They crashed down to the current 9-point line roughly around the time it came out that Christian Ponder would return as the starting quarterback against the Packers with Freeman injured.
It’s a telltale sign a team has reached a point of desperation when someone like Ponder — who’s 13-14-2 against the spread as a starter in his three-year career — potentially necessitates a positive line move. The Vikings are 1-5 straight up and 2-4 against the spread on the season.
Double-digit home underdogs are even more reliable than their traveling counterparts, though. The same WagerMinds study found that 59 percent of teams at plus-10 or more in their home stadium cashed in the 23-year span.
Gamblers might have a chance to bet on two in a row in week 8. After the Vikings and Packers play in Sunday Night Football, the Seattle Seahawks go on the road as 11-point favorites at the St. Louis Rams on Monday Night Football.
The games will draw consecutive prime-time audiences, knowingly or not, into Las Vegas’ seasonlong parity debate.
Read below for all of this week’s picks.
Ray Brewer
Record: 22-18-2 (5-1 last week)
Giants plus-6 at Eagles
Chiefs minus-7.5 vs. Browns
Saints minus-11 vs. Bills
Dolphins vs. Patriots over 45.5
Steelers minus-2.5 at Raiders
Vikings plus-9 vs. Packers
Taylor Bern
Record: 21-21 (3-3 last week)
Bengals minus-6.5 vs. Jets
Saints minus-11 vs. Bills
Patriots minus-6.5 vs. Dolphins
Giants plus-6 at Eagles
Raiders plus-2.5 vs. Steelers
Cardinals minus-2.5 vs. Falcons
Case Keefer (2012 champion)
Record: 17-25 (1-5 last week)
Lions minus-3 vs. Cowboys
Browns plus-7.5 at Chiefs
Dolphins plus-6.5 at Patriots
Cardinals minus-2.5 vs. Falcons
Raiders plus-2.5 vs. Steelers
Vikings plus-9 vs. Packers
Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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