September 21, 2024

UFC 185 breakdown, betting odds and picks

Odds suggest Joanna Jedrzejczyk will test Carla Esparza in co-main event

Carla Esparza Defeats Rose Namajunas in Tuf 20 Finale

L.E. Baskow

Carla Esparza and her team celebrate her win over Rose Namajunas following their Women's Strawweight title bout at the Pearl in the Palms on Friday, December 12, 2014.

More than half of the 10 UFC champions will climb into the octagon before the end of spring.

The promotion’s next three pay-per-views, running through UFC 187 on May 23 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena, all feature two separate title defenses. If any belt changes hands, odds indicate it’s most likely to be one at risk Saturday in Dallas at UFC 185.

Women’s strawweight champion Carla Esparza is just a slight favorite in her first attempted defense against challenger Joanna Jedrzejczyk in the evening’s co-main event. Sports books offer the Polish Jedrzejczyk, who wrapped up her training camp in Las Vegas last week, at plus-135 (risking $1 to win $1.35) with Esparza posted at minus-160 (risking $1.60 to win $1).

That implies just less than a 60 percent chance of Esparza retaining her title, far lower than all the other scheduled defenses.

By contrast, Esparza’s contemporary headlining over her in Dallas is the biggest favorite of the bunch. Lightweight champion Anthony Pettis is a minus-500 favorite over Rafael dos Anjos, who comes back at plus-350.

That means the line gives Pettis better than an 80 percent chance at keeping his belt. The Sun’s picks panel agrees, with none of the five members taking a risk with dos Anjos.

They aren’t collectively dismissive of Jedrzejczyk’s chances, but aren’t totally convinced either with just one person calling for Esparza’s demise.

Check below for a breakdown odds and picks from KSNV’s Randy Howe(15-6 year to date), ESPN.com’s Brett Okamoto (14-7), ESPN Radio’s Steve Cofield (14-7), Las Vegas Sun’s Case Keefer (13-8) and Las Vegas Sun’s Ray Brewer (12-7) on every fight.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.