Las Vegas Sun

March 19, 2024

Gaming:

Five pressing questions at the start of the 2015 World Series of Poker

Predicting answers that will come over the next seven weeks at the Rio

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Steve Marcus

Martin Jacobson’s winning hand is displayed during the 2014 World Series of Poker Main Event on Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2014, at the Rio. Jacobson, of Sweden, beat Felix Stephensen of Norway to win the $10 million first-place prize.

The constant clacking of shuffled poker chips officially overtakes the Rio convention center for the next 50 days this afternoon.

The 46th annual World Series of Poker will begin at noon with the first of 68 tournaments scheduled through July. The vast majority of the world’s professional card players will stay in Las Vegas throughout the summer in a quest to win poker’s equivalent of a championship trophy — the WSOP bracelet.

The $10,000 buy-in Main Event, poker’s world championship, will cap the series, but the WSOP has an arguably even bigger event planned to kick off festivities. The cheapest open tournament in WSOP history, a $565 buy-in called The Colossus, starts Friday and will run for at least five days.

It’s drawn most of the pre-WSOP chatter, but there’s plenty of other areas of intrigue.

Check out the Sun’s list of the five most pressing questions at the 2015 WSOP, along with our best guess at the answers, below.

How many players will enter The Colossus?

Cash will change hands when the event’s official registration numbers are released Saturday night. For as much as this question has ruled the conversation in the poker world, players have surely made some friendly proposition bets with each other over the final tally.

The Colossus is guaranteed to become the largest live tournament in the history of poker, with WSOP Executive Director Ty Stewart two weeks ago hinting pre-registration alone eclipsed the previous record of 8,773 participants. The line at the Rio cashier cage might stretch all the way to the Palms before the four starting flights spread out across Friday and Saturday begin play. The WSOP estimates capacity for the Colossus at 24,200 entrants, a number that’s not out of reach for an event of this magnitude.

Prediction: Surveying the landscape, the guesses from poker insiders range from 12,000 to 20,000. Let’s position right in the middle and call for 16,824 entrants — just short of doubling the 2006 Main Event, which currently holds the record.

Who will emerge as a new star?

Just a few years ago, the annual question was if someone would separate from the pack and become one of the summer’s biggest stories. But with the WSOP offering a record-high 68 bracelet events in 2015 — for comparison’s sake, that’s more than double the 33 in 2004 — it’s an inevitability at least one player, and likely a few, will transcend into the upper category.

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WSOP player Brandon Shack-Harris considers his play during the Poker Players Championship final table of professional poker players at the Rio on Thursday, June 26, 2014.

The proliferation of tournaments like the Colossus also helps, with their sheer mass overwhelmingly favoring someone previously unknown to prevail. Other cheaper events that will produce massive fields include the $1,500 buy-in Millionaire Maker starting June 5, the $1,500 Monster Stack beginning June 12 and the $777 buy-in Lucky 7s running July 3.

Last year’s biggest breakout player, Brandon Shack-Harris, started his run by winning the first-ever $1,000 buy-in pot-limit Omaha event. Shack-Harris went on to three more final tables, including a second-place showing in the $50,000 buy-in Poker Players Championship, and five in-the-money finishes, totaling nearly $1.5 million in winnings.

Hundreds of hopefuls are showing up with plans to be this year’s Shack-Harris.

Prediction: This one is practically impossible to call. Going to the Rio and asking a random person in the registration line for their name might work as well as any strategy. To be more methodical, let’s consult results from the WSOP’s circuit events. With seven lifetime victories on the circuit but limited success at the big show to this point, online savant Ari Engel seems like a fine choice.

Which established professional will win the Player of the Year award?

It was already difficult for a player to break out of obscurity to win the coveted overall honor since the WSOP first implemented it in 2004. The improbability only heightens given the WSOP’s partnership with the Global Poker Index rankings system to determine this year’s winner.

The formula places a greater emphasis on the higher buy-in tournaments and championship events. The last six winners have succeeded in at least one tournament with a buy-in of $10,000 or more, and it’s almost impossible that the streak will snap this summer.

The award is most associated with Daniel Negreanu, who took the inaugural version before repeating two years ago to become the only player to win it twice. Expect someone the ilk of Negreanu, tournament poker’s all-time winningest player with $29. 9 million in earnings, to get their permanent Player of the Year banner this year.

Prediction: The prerequisites for a Player of the Year pick are palpable. It needs to be someone who’s steadfast in playing every day, supported by a large enough bankroll and proficient in a wide variety of games. So why not Paul Volpe? The Philadelphia native won a bracelet last year in deuce-to-7 lowball as well as making deep runs in razz, Omaha hi-low and no-limit hold’em tournaments. GPI currently ranks Volpe as the No. 32 tournament player in the world.

How much will Phil Ivey play?

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Phil Ivey takes part in the $111,111 One Drop High Rollers No-Limit Hold'em event during the World Series of Poker on Wednesday, June 26, 2013, at the Rio.

The man christened “The Tiger Woods of Poker” in the early 2000s still commands more attention than any contemporary at the tables. The poker world sees the 39-year-old Ivey as the player most likely to catch up to Phil Hellmuth’s record 13 WSOP bracelets.

Ivey won his 10th last summer, but rumors are swirling that he’s limiting opportunities to add to his total in 2015. He won’t be a total no-show like in 2011, but might focus on only a handful of the more expensive events.

Ivey prefers cash games, and might spend more of his time at Bellagio and Aria as well as traveling to Macau playing for more money than most WSOP tournaments can boast.

Prediction: All it will take is a big prop bet or two on winning a bracelet to knock Ivey out of his tournament-poker apathy. Ivey won’t be an everyday fixture at the Rio like in past years, but he’ll play more than the general consensus.

Will anyone win three bracelets?

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George Danzer reacts after busting out during the final table of the Poker Players Championship Thursday, July 4, 2013 at the Rio.

At least one player has won multiple bracelets for 15 consecutive years. Getting three in a single series is the new milestone.

German professional George Danzer became the sixth player all-time and first since 2009 to pull off the feat last summer. Ivey, Hellmuth, Puggy Pearson, Ted Forrest and Jeffrey Lisandro are the only other members of the exclusive fraternity.

No one has ever earned four or more WSOP titles in a single year.

Prediction: The easy answer is no. The odds are heavily stacked against any player achieving that level of success. But give me a decent prop-bet price on the “yes,” say 5-to-1, and I’ll switch my pick. It’s the World Series of Poker, right? Time to gamble.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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