Opening of baseball season offers a variety of wagers

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, April 3, 2016 | 2 a.m.

There’s no rest for sports books this time of the year, as the major events keep piling up. A day before the conclusion of the NCAA Tournament on April 4 is Major League Baseball’s Opening Day, creating action from early morning to late night at betting windows. To get a sense of the upcoming baseball season from a gambling perspective, here’s a glance at the three most popular ways to wager in the preseason.

FUTURES ODDS

The Chicago Cubs sit alone at the top of betting boards in odds to win the World Series, including at a price of 9-to-2 at the Westgate Superbook. That standing should make fans cringe as much as celebrate.

If anything, the betting market anointing Chicago the favorite may hint at its 108-year championship drought extending.

Only one preseason Las Vegas favorite in the past 15 years, the 2009 New York Yankees, has lived up to expectations with a title. The six champions that followed the Yankees all came into the season somewhere from 20-to-1 to 30-to-1.

Five teams currently fall within that range at the Superbook — the St. Louis Cardinals at 20-to-1, the Pittsburgh Pirates at 20-to-1, the Detroit Tigers at 25-to-1, the Arizona Diamondbacks at 25-to-1 and the Seattle Mariners at 30-to-1.

Our pick: Washington Nationals at 17-to-1. We’ll eschew the recent 20- to 30-to-1 trend for a team just outside of the group at William Hill sports books. Washington came into the season as the favorite or second favorite each of the past three years, and there’s nothing to suggest the team’s odds should nearly triple in 2016. Here’s to hoping Harper follows his first MVP award by leading his team to the Commissioner’s Trophy.

WIN TOTALS

Futures odds are a more common betting avenue for the masses and not always reflective of where professional handicappers see value going into the season. Win totals are the place to get a feel for where the big money is coming in.

This year, five teams have taken enough action on their “over” to push the total up at least 1.5 games at the Superbook, while four have seen a similar shift on their “under”. Either way, the moves spell bad news for the defending World Series champions.

The Kansas City Royals opened with an over/under of 86 wins before their number plummeted to 84.5. Three American League Central division rivals — the Cleveland Indians at 87 wins, Detroit Tigers at 82.5 wins and Chicago White Sox at 82 wins — went the other way, seeing their totals rise.

The biggest moves were on the Philadelphia Phillies, boosting from 64.5 to 67 wins, and the Los Angeles Angels, dropping from 81.5 to 79.5 wins.

Our pick: Kansas City Royals under 85 wins. Not to pile on the Royals, but the betting market may not have corrected downward enough. No advanced-metric projections have Kansas City anywhere near 85 victories, a number that’s still available at William Hill. In fairness, the Royals have disproven statistical pessimism to win the American League each of the past two years. But their starting pitching problems appear more pronounced this season, which should cause the magic to run out.

PROPOSITION BETS

Proposition wagering is on the rise across all sports, and baseball is no different. Even fans who hardly bet on a game all year can’t wait to dive into the preseason numbers.

It’s why William Hill posts nearly 100 betting options, while the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook publishes a Super Bowl-like packet of props. The most buzzed-over odds are typically the futures to win the home run title.

The Superbook released odds on 56 players to lead the league this season. Perennial favorite Giancarlo Stanton from the Miami Marlins remained at the top at 7-to-1, with two locals close behind.

Las Vegas native Bryce Harper is tied for second choice at 12-to-1, while Chicago Cubs star and Bonanza High graduate Kris Bryant is 15-to-1. Bryant is offered at the same price as last year’s winner Chris Davis, who belted 47 home runs.

Our pick: Miguel Sano at 30-to-1. There’s value on taking the best player in the league, the Angels’ Mike Trout, at 12-to-1 but let’s aim for a bigger payout and go for a longer shot. There’s so much hype for Bryant that a more powerful second-year player is unjustly further down the board. While Bryant hit a home run every 21.5 at bats last season, Sano managed one every 15.5 at bats.