Las Vegas Sun

May 19, 2024

The bets of summer: put your money on these baseball teams in April. Thank us in October.

Kershaw

Alex Brandon / AP

Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw celebrates striking out Washington Nationals’ Wilmer Difo for the final out of Game 5 of a baseball National League Division Series, at Nationals Park early Friday, Oct. 14, 2016, in Washington. The Dodgers won 4-3.

With the NFL and NHL on the way, many have wondered whether Major League Baseball would be the next major professional sports league to bring a team to Las Vegas.

It’s not blind speculation, either. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred gave the possibility credence during a spring training press conference in Phoenix.

“Las Vegas could be a viable market for us,” Manfred said. “I don’t think that the presence of legalized gambling in Las Vegas should necessarily disqualify that market as a potential major league city.”

Manfred has expressed interest in expansion, which hasn’t occurred since 1998, but it’s still likely a few years away. For now, legalized gambling is the only game in town when it comes to Major League Baseball — and it’s booming.

The state’s casinos have set a record for total amount wagered on baseball three years in a row. That’s partly because of the popularity and preponderance of preseason proposition wagering, with hundreds of options available at sports books.

None are more exploitable for bettors to profit on than over/under win totals, so with the 2017 season starting this week, here are six bets to help pass the time until a team shows up in town.

Tampa Bay Rays over 78 wins

It’s always preferable to back a young team that everyone else is discounting if it has the ability to squash expectations. Ninety-five percent of the money on the Rays’ win total at William Hill sports books has come on the under. That’s silly considering they have a pair of breakout candidates — Kevin Kiermaier and Steven Souza Jr. — in the outfield alone. Tampa Bay also had the worst luck in the league last year, going 13-27 in one-run games. History has proven a record like that incredibly fluky and likely to rebound.

Seattle Mariners under 86.5 wins

Every year at about this time, excitement and reasons for optimism spread about the Mariners potentially ending the league’s longest postseason drought, which now stands at 16 years. They sound louder than ever this year, following an 86-win, near-miss season. Don’t get swallowed up by the hope. The Mariners are a flawed team. Their offense is built around two aging sluggers, Nelson Cruz and Robinson Canó, who may fall off any moment. The concern is even more pronounced with the pitching staff, as top two starters — Felix Hernandez and Hishashi Iwakuma — each declined last year.

New York Mets over 88.5 wins

The Nationals’ losses might be the Mets’ gains. This is a spot to buy low on one of the best teams in the league in a post-hype situation. The Mets were a trendy World Series pick last year after finishing as the runner-up in 2015, but lost in the wild-card game in a season that mostly failed to live up to expectations. And yet, they still won 87 games even with a slew of injuries. It’s a risk to expect their stacked starting rotation — headed by Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey (Steven Matz already is on the disabled list) — to stay healthy, but if it does, the reward is large.

Washington Nationals under 91.5 wins

A team that could go the opposite way of the Dodgers and face increased competition from its divisional rivals this season is the ever-popular-to-bet Nationals. They still have the best roster in the National League East, but a case could be made that each of the other four teams has improved. Washington won’t waltz to another 95-win season like last year, even though 94 percent of the money on its win total is on the over at William Hill sports books. The Nationals also have one clear weakness in their bullpen, which can be counted on to turn a few wins into losses.

Los Angeles Dodgers over 93.5 wins

The Dodgers have averaged 92 victories over the past four seasons, and none of those teams was as loaded with talent as this one. Los Angeles might be the only team that can rival Chicago with stars at every position, and even a few more in backup roles. Top pitcher Clayton Kershaw is filling in to his annual prop-betting role as Cy Young Award favorite, while 22-year-old third baseman Corey Seager is suddenly the fourth choice in National League MVP odds. There’s no one else in the National League West that strikes fear into the Dodgers, so they should rack up divisional wins without much problem.

Chicago Cubs under 96.5 wins

There’s a reason five of the past six World Series champions — the 2014 San Francisco Giants being the exception — have gone under their win total in their title-defense season. The betting market bloats the predictive value of a championship, and diminishes the role luck plays — which isn’t to say the Cubs weren’t the best team in baseball. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they will be again. They benefited from an exceptionally healthy pitching corps and fielded one of the best defenses in baseball history. Some regression in both of those categories is likely.

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