Analysis: Early UNLV roster projection for 2019-20

By Mike Grimala (contact)

Friday, March 8, 2019 | 2 a.m.

With Shakur Juiston set to take a redshirt year and return to UNLV next season, now seems like a good time to start sorting out the rotation for the 2019-20 Runnin’ Rebels.

In the first in our series of (not quite) offseason roster projections, you’ll notice there are 15 players listed. That’s unusual, as Division-I teams are only allotted 13 scholarships. Juiston’s return accounts for one of the extra slots, as does the inclusion of non-scholarship player Nick Blair. As the math stands, UNLV will have to create one open scholarship for next year somehow; it’s not a difficult task, considering how common transfers are in today’s game, but seeing as how the 2018-19 season is still ongoing I’ll hold off on projecting anyone to leave the program.

So what does Juiston’s return tell us about next year’s team? Well, according to this projection, it looks like small-ball may not be as prevalent next year, but the defensive gains could make up the difference.

Let’s take an early, early look at the 2019-20 team:

Starting lineup

Point guard: Amauri Hardy, junior

Hardy is putting the finishing touches on a nice breakout season, as he jumped from 5.0 points and 1.6 assists per game as a freshman to 13.3 points and 3.4 assists as a sophomore. Even more encouraging, he has upped his 3-point accuracy from 29.4 percent last year to 35.7 percent this season. Though he spent most of this season sharing point-guard duties with Noah Robotham, the numbers say Hardy is ready to run the show: His usage rate jumped from 14.1 percent last year to 23.2 percent this year, but his turnover rate is basically the same (13.3 percent to 14.0 percent, respective). This is his job for sure in 2019-20.

Shooting guard: Bryce Hamilton, sophomore

This hasn’t been a superlative freshman campaign for Hamilton, as he’s averaging just 3.7 points in 11.9 minutes per game during conference play. He has shown flashes of potential, however, including a 10-point game against Cincinnati and a 5-of-5 shooting performance against UC Riverside. There’s a lot of projection involved here, but if he takes a step forward between Years 1 and 2 — as Hardy did — Hamilton should hold down this spot.

Small forward: Joel Ntambwe, sophomore

This is where Juiston’s return starts to have a ripple effect on the rest of the roster. Ntambwe has enjoyed most of his success this season since moving to power forward, where his length (6-foot-8) and shooting ability (40.4 3FG%) make him difficult to defend. With Juiston anchoring that spot, Ntambwe slides back to small forward and a more perimeter-oriented role. If Marvin Menzies can get creative with his offensive scheme, there’s no reason Ntambwe can’t coexist with Juiston. But it’s safe to say we won’t see Ntambwe playing quite the same role next year.

Power forward, Shakur Juiston, senior

Juiston got off to a slow start offensively this season while adjusting to his new role as a featured option, but what the Rebels have really missed has been his defense. Though it was just an eight-game sample size, Juiston held opponents to 0.764 points per possession, according to Synergy Sports data, making him the team’s top frontcourt defender by a wide margin. If he can bring that kind of D for a full season in 2019-20, UNLV will be better for it.

Center: Mbacke Diong, junior

Diong’s offensive improvement was impressive this season, but his defense didn’t take the huge leap forward that many were expecting. His block rate actually decreased from 6.8 percent as a freshman to 6.3 percent this year, and his steal rate went from 2.6 percent to 1.9 percent. Having Juiston around to help on the interior could free up Diong to be more of a playmaker on the defensive end.

Bench (rotation)

Guard: Trey Woodbury, sophomore

Woodbury is a much better shooter than he has shown this year (28.6 3FG%). With the experience he’s gained as a freshman, he should be able to settle in and compete to be the first guard/wing off the bench.

Guard: Ethan Anderson, freshman

With the caveat that I haven't been able to dive into the scouting reports for the incoming freshmen yet, I think at least one of the young guards will have to play significant minutes. Anderson is a big, physical point guard, and though he'll probably need some time to learn the position, he's the early pick to secure a rotation role — especially if he can score off the dribble.

Forward: Nick Blair, senior

It’s rare to have a non-scholarship player in the rotation, but Blair has earned this spot by playing bigger than his size (6-foot-5) and making shots (36.1 3FG%).

Center: Cheickna Dembele, junior

Menzies loves Dembele’s ability to execute and communicate the defense. That’s why he’s above Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua on the depth chart for now.

Bench (depth)

Guard: Josh Pierre-Louis, freshman

Pierre-Louis is an explosive athlete and could very well play himself into the rotation early.

Guard: Jay Green, junior

We haven’t seen much from Green in his two years at UNLV. His biggest contributions will probably come in practice.

Forward: Tervell Beck, junior

Beck fell completely off the map this season, and it’s hard to see him recovering a meaningful spot in the rotation over the offseason. He has a long road back to earning real minutes.

Forward: Ben Coupet, junior

One of two holdovers from Menzies’s first recruiting class, Coupet is a valued member of the practice squad. His appearances in games will be on an emergency-only basis.

Center: Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, sophomore

He actually started a handful of games this season as a true freshman, but Tchamwa Tchatchoua obviously needs more time to polish his game.

Center: Djordjije Sljivancanin, junior

The other member of Menzies’s first class, Sljivancanin is more myth than man at this point. He hasn’t played a minute since Feb. 25, 2017.

Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.