Sunday Sweats: Seven bets to add to your NFL Week 14 card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Dec. 9, 2023 | 11:30 a.m.

NFL betting favorites’ run of dominance has hit an abrupt halt in the last three games.

Teams laying points had been flattening their overmatched opponents the last two weeks with a 22-5 straight-up, 20-7 against the spread going into Week 13’s Sunday Night Football. Then the Green Bay Packers stunned the Kansas City Chiefs 27-19 as 6-point underdogs and the outright upsets have flown in ever since.

The Cincinnati Bengals downed the Jacksonville Jaguars the next night on Monday Night Football, winning 34-31 in overtime as 10-point underdogs. Then, on Thursday Night Football, the New England Patriots dismissed their 5.5-point underdog tag to defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers 21-18.

The Bengals’ win loomed especially large for sports books, as they were inundated with bets on the Jaguars. Not only were the vast majority of tickets on the home team but so too were the larger wagers early in the week to push the line from 7.5 to 10.

The Jaguars’ loss took a chunk out of the Week 13 Sunday Sweats as I needed them to finish off the teaser. That didn’t happen and the column took a slight loss (-$20) for one of the only times this season.

I’m out to turn it around in Week 14.

Read below to find bets in all seven of Sunday Sweats’ usual categories. Lines are the best currently available at publication time in Las Vegas with the sports book noted. Plays from other betting columns will be linked and tracked here at the bottom of the page. Check back Sunday for an additional prop in the Raiders’ gameday preview that will also be tracked as part of the Sunday Sweats.

Tasty Total (10-3, $1,294): Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens over 39.5 (South Point)

$165 to win $150

It’s completely anecdotal, but I feel like a lot of the big, weather-based moves early week in the betting market haven’t come through this season. It could partially be because the weather has often wound up not as bad as initially forecasted. That could happen today at M&T Bank Stadium. It’s still looks like it’s going to be rainy, but perhaps not as windy as first feared. Wind affects totals more than rain. This still might be a difficult over to hit, but I’ve trusted both offenses more than the market all season. Only truly awful conditions should bring this total to below 40. Most sports books are at 40.5, which is a fairer price. I still lean over there but it likely wouldn’t be enough for a bet. At 39.5, I don’t mind trusting the likes of Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson, Kyren Williams and Gus Edwards.     

Two-(Or Three-) Team Teaser (6-7, -$370): Indianapolis Colts +8.5 & Baltimore Ravens -1.5 at -125 (Caesars/William Hill)

$250 to win $200

Despite the Bengals’ breakout on Monday Night Football, the flip in favorite status this week towards them and away from the Colts is a bit much for me. I still expect Indianapolis to win the game. That makes getting more than a touchdown by lengthening the spread through the 3 and the 7 too appealing of an opportunity to pass up. The line move also answered a question that I had struggled with through most of the week – which team to pair with the Ravens on a teaser. There were plenty of other options, but none felt quite right until the Colts crossed over into standard teaser range. The Rams are playing better, but the Ravens are a different caliber. Just more or less needing Baltimore to win outright is a deal.

Moneyline Parlay (3-10, $597): Chicago Bears & New York Jets at +570 (Circa Sports)

$80 to win $456

These might be the two underdogs I trust to win best this week, and Circa is offering the best prices on both. Chicago is +150 hosting Detroit two games after nearly knocking it off on the road before an endgame collapse. Now they get to play off a bye week and on their home field. The Bears have a great chance to defeat their divisional rival. Texans at Jets similarly projects as more of a coin flip considering the visitors’ injury situation. Houston already lost receiver Tank Dell for the year last week, and several other skill players quarterback CJ Stroud relies on also populate the injury report. The Jets have upset a good teams this year — the Eagles and the Bills — and the Texans might be next.

Player Prop (14-11, $702): James Cook over 47.5 rushing yards at -115 (BetMGM)

$230 to win $200

The second-year running back out of Georgia has been getting more carries since the Bills’ offensive coordinator switch from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady, and this might be his best matchup yet. The Chiefs’ pass defense has been great this year but the rush part of their stop unit has been middling. These Chiefs vs. Bills games have shown a tendency to get out of control on the scoreboard in the past but this year feels different. Buffalo may try to establish itself at the line of scrimmage early. And, if the Bills are nursing a lead as the betting market has implied with steady action on them all week, they’ll also be running the ball a lot late in the game. I think Cook will have closer to 60 yards than 50 yards.

Lookahead Line (7-5, $315): Cleveland Browns -2.5 vs. Chicago Bears in Week 15 (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$220 to win $200

Yes, the Bears are playing a lot better and I think they have a real shot at an upset this weekend against the Lions. But playing against what’s been the NFL’s best defense this season on the road next week? Hard pass. The look-ahead market’s love for the Bears has gone too far and not factored in the matchups enough. The Browns have the athleticism to contain Bears quarterback Justin Fields on defense. Offensively, they didn’t look as poor last week with Joe Flacco taking over despite a 36-19 loss to the Rams. This line looks low regardless of how this week’s games play out — injuries are the only extenuating factor, as usual — but it should particularly shoot up if the Browns handle the Jaguars at home as 3-point favorites.

Future Finding (1-4, $375): South Carolina women’s basketball to win NCAA Tournament at +450 (Circa Sports)

$400 to win $1,800

I believe this is the first women’s college basketball wager I’ve ever made. I just happened to be poking around some niche future markets and stumbled upon what looks like one of the most valuable wagers on any board in town. No, I don’t have much expertise on the sport but I’m relying on sources that do. All sets of analytical ratings have South Carolina sitting at No. 1 in the country by a wide margin. They imply that the Gamecocks should be much lower than this number and a runaway favorite to win their second title in three years. The women’s game picked up a lot of steam in sports books during last year’s March Madness, and the prospect of having some rooting interest deep into the tournament this year sounds fun.   

Non-football Play (9-4, $2,206): Washington +4.5 -114 vs. Gonzaga (Boyd Sports)

$228 to win $200

Once again, there aren’t many options on the board for Sunday away from the NFL yet so I’ll scroll to the final college basketball game on Saturday’s monster slate. The in-state Bulldogs and Huskies square off semi-regularly but the games haven’t been very memorable as a result of the former being a whole lot better than the latter. But the gap has trimmed this season. Washington has its best team in years and won’t be bothered by Gonzaga’s pace and length — which it’s traditionally used to overwhelm lesser opponents. The atmosphere will be raucous at Washington’s home Alaska Airlines Arena, another element in its favor that shouldn’t be looked over here.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 50-45, $4,664

Weekend betting column year to date: 164-171-4, $13,183

Weekend betting column all-time: 642-675-11, $31,712 

Previous pending wagers: Texas to win the College Football Playoff at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000); Tanner Mordecai to win the Heisman Trophy at 200-to-1 ($30 to win $6,000); LSU to win the College Football Playoff at 20-to-1 ($150 to win $3,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff at 8-to-1 ($350 to win $2,800); Carson Beck to win the Heisman Trophy at 30-to-1 ($100 to win $3,000) Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Anthony Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 9-to-1 ($200 to win $1,800); Zay Flowers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 30-to-1 ($65 to win $1,950); Miami Dolphins to not make the playoffs at +105 ($300 to win $315); Cleveland Cavaliers to win Central division at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); Derrick Henry to lead the NFL in rushing yards at +850 ($200 to win $1,950); Justin Herbert to lead the NFL in passing yards at +550 ($200 to win $1,100); San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West at -165 ($660 to win $400); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at -190 ($570 to win $300); Tampa Bay Buccaneers NOT to make the playoffs at +120 ($200 to win $240); Boston Celtics to win the NBA in-season tournament at +950 ($200 to win $1,900); Victor Wembanyama to win NBA Rookie of the Year at +125 ($400 to win $500); AJ Brown to win Offensive Player of the Year at 18-to-1 ($100 to win $1,800); Rudy Gobert to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year at 5-to-1 ($300 to win $1,500); Carolina Panthers +5.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($110 to win $100) Tyreek Hill to win Offensive Player of the Year at Even money ($500 to win $500); Atlanta Falcons -2 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($220 to win $200)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or