Analysis: Raiders’ coaching miscues hit new low in home-opening loss to Steelers

By Case Keefer (contact)

Monday, Sept. 25, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Kick the field goal to pull within five points or aim for the end zone to tie the game.

Raiders coach Josh McDaniels claimed he considered both those options ahead of a crucial fourth-and-4 play with 2:25 remaining in his team’s 23-18 "Sunday Night Football" loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers before sending in the kicking team. He said n his postgame news conference he didn’t know how close he was to choosing the opposite, more aggressive route but also expressed no regrets.

“It doesn’t matter what the decision is there if we don’t execute well,” McDaniels said. “If you choose to kick it there, you’ve got to play defense, and I had confidence in our defense. They had been playing well and I thought we had an opportunity to get the ball back there with a couple minutes to go and go back down there and win it with a touchdown. That was the thought process.”

It didn’t work out, as the Steelers gained a first down to help the drain the clock all the way to 12 seconds remaining before the Raiders received a punt to get the ball back at their own 15-yard line. Any shot of a miracle was extinguished when Las Vegas quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo then threw his third interception of the game on the first play to clinch a second consecutive loss and drop the team's record to 1-2.

McDaniels mentioned on a couple occasions that he was “just trying to do the right thing,” throughout the game with his coaching decisions, but in at least this one key case, he failed spectacularly.

The Raiders needed a touchdown and a two-point conversion to extend the game, and they instead kicked a field goal. They of course then still needed a touchdown, but never got a real opportunity to make it happen.

The betting odds on Pittsburgh to win the game spiked from -500 (i.e. risking $500 to win $100) to -1000 once Daniel Carlson knocked through the 26-yard field goal, implying nearly an 8% decrease in the Raiders’ win probability.

Those are the types of negative dings a team can’t take in decisive situations, and a hint as to why Las Vegas’ close-game fortune isn’t necessarily going to flip this season. The Raiders went a season-crushing 4-9 in one-score games last year, including losing each of the first six, and there were hopes the bounces or luck would swing the other way in 2023.

It happened in Week 1 when the Raiders edged the Broncos 17-16, but that can’t be counted on to continue — especially not when McDaniels is inadvertently sabotaging his teams’ chances.

“We’re going to need another possession anyway so it’s not a lack of confidence (in the offense,)” McDaniels said of the decision.

That type of reasoning was more prevalent in the NFL as recently as decade ago, but with a revolution in information and analytics, coaching calls in critical spots have gradually improved. Several teams have an assistant whose role it is to advise the head coach on what years of data indicates is the optimal choice.

The Raiders are apparently not among that group. McDaniels said he “confers with some other people,” but the decision is ultimately his alone. He could find some solace in that his players evidently didn’t disagree with the decision as those who spoke to the media in the locker room afterward defended McDaniels.

“I agree with what coach did,” running back Josh Jacobs said. “I think we had faith in our defense. They were starting to play good at the end of the game, and we believed that we can get the ball back with time to score.”

Jacobs had his best game of the year but was still relatively ineffective as a rusher, gaining 60 rushing yards on 17 attempts for an average of less than four yards per carry. His fellow offensive superstar, receiver Davante Adams, was the game’s biggest standout with 13 catches for 172 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

Garoppolo targeted Adams on second-down before the field goal at the end of the game, but the pass fell incomplete. He then looked towards Jakobi Meyers, who had seven catches for 85 yards, on third down but Steelers linebacker Kwon Alexander stood strong in coverage.

Adams and Meyers found holes so frequently in Pittsburgh’s zone defense, however, that it might have been nice to give them one more chance with the game on the line.

“It’s tough because this is a really good team — we have a lot of potential,” Adams said. “You’re not a good team until you prove it, but this team has some potential. We’ve got the players.”

Adams scored the game’s first points when McDaniels made a shrewd play call on fourth-and-1 from the 32-yard-line on the Raiders’ second possession. Garoppolo ran play action, faking a handoff to Jacobs that Pittsburgh bit on to help ensure an over-the-top completion that the receiver took into the end zone.

But for the second consecutive week, the Raiders would fall into a midgame lull to make the early touchdown a distant memory. The Steelers scored the game’s next 23 points after Adams’ touchdown, as the Raiders allowed second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett to have arguably the best game of his career.

Pittsburgh came into Las Vegas’ home opener with the worst-rated offense in the league, but Pickett ignited starting with a 72-yard touchdown pass to Calvin Austin less than a minute after Adams’ first score. Then Garoppolo started making mistakes.

He didn’t handle consistent pressure from former Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt and his complements well, taking four sacks in addition to his trio of interceptions. Watt, who finished with two sacks and four quarterback hits, was closing in on Garoppolo during his first interception — thrown right to cornerback Levi Wallace on a pass intended for rookie tight end Michael Mayer.

The second pick was even worse, as Garoppolo held the ball for a prolonged time in the pocket before just throwing it up for grabs and allowing veteran cornerback Patrick Peterson to snag his 35^th career interception. The Raiders’ own veteran ballhawk, Marcus Peters, had a shot at the 33^rd pick of his career but dropped what would have been a sure touchdown on the possession after Austin burned him for a touchdown.

The defense started to look lifeless after the near-miss, especially following Garoppolo’s second interception when Pickett then led the Steelers 81 yards down the field on six plays in just more than three minutes. Pittsburgh tight end Pat Freiermuth capped the drive with a 14-yard touchdown pass from Pickett.

“I don’t have any issue with the effort or intentions of the defense,” McDaniels said. “They gave us an opportunity to win the game.”

The Raiders’ defense recovered after Freiermuth’s score late in the third quarter, forcing two consecutive three-and-outs. The improvement influenced McDaniels’ eventual choice to kick the field goal, and the defense went out to the field right before the two-minute warning determined to validate his trust in them.

“We were talking the whole time — ‘Everybody stay calm,’” edge rusher Maxx Crosby said. “Nobody blinked. It was just, ‘We’re going to get a stop and get our offense a chance. That’s what we’re paid to do.’”

Steelers running back Najee Harris, who had 19 carries for 65 yards on the night, had a five- and three-yard run on first and second down, respectively, to bring up third-and-2 with 2:12 to play. That’s when Pickett rolled out and found Allen Robinson for a six-yard completion to all but seal the game.

“We fell short but we didn’t need to be in that position in the first place,” Crosby said.

Crosby meant that as a commentary on missed opportunities throughout the game and not a criticism of his coach, but it could just as easily be applied to the latter. The Raiders’ defense ideally should have been tasked with trying to at least guarantee overtime; not needing a stop just to give its offense the chance at a win.

But that’s not how McDaniels saw it. There was a lot of debate on who or what was to blame for the Raiders’ close-game failings a year ago.

Former quarterback Derek Carr took the fall, getting benched ironically after a loss to the Steelers and then unceremoniously released. But the latest defeat to the Steelers shows the problem may be far from fixed.

Las Vegas will continue to perform below expectation in close games if its coach continues to make costly choices at inopportune times.

“Obviously, it’s disappointing,” Crosby said of the loss. “Home opener, we could have played better, and that’s upsetting. But it’s the NFL. You’ve got to find ways to improve and that’s what I do every day and try to show my teammates. You’ve just got to keep going forward.”

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or