College football by the odds: Vegas preview and picks of every Week 13 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, Nov. 22, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Seven teams remain alive vying for four spots. That’s how the betting market views the College Football Playoff race anyway.

In line with conventional wisdom, the odds indicate the winner of the imminent SEC Championship Game between Georgia and LSU is in. Ditto for Saturday’s showdown between Ohio State and Michigan.

The Bulldogs and Buckeyes are favored to get in regardless of the result in those respective games with Caesars/William Hill listing the former at -10000 (i.e. risking $10,000 to win $100) to make the playoff and the latter at -800.

It’s possible for the Wolverines to get in with a loss too, but far from guaranteed based on the odds. Michigan is slightly favored to miss the playoff at -170 compared with a +140 (i.e. risking $100 to win $140) price to get in.

That’s because the Wolverines need one if not two of the other three contenders, all of which are competing for a conference championship, to fall off — TCU (-125 to reach the playoff), Clemson (+200) and USC (+200).

It might be best to bet these teams game-by-game at this point, but I’ve been throwing futures into the topper of this column all year so let’s go with two more on this playoff market to cap off the regular season.

TCU’s price is off. Moneylines would imply the Horned Frogs are unlikely to beat both Iowa State this week and then either Kansas State or Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game, so I’ll bet TCU not to make the playoff at -105.

On the flip side, Clemson is conservatively around 60% to beat both South Carolina this week and North Carolina next week in the ACC Championship Game. Maybe the Tigers still get left out for the Wolverines or another team, but that seems unlikely given how much the selection committee has valued conference championships in the past.

There’s more than enough value, therefore, to bet Clemson at +200 to reach the playoff. The postseason might be better off without the Tigers considering they’ve been underwhelming all year and probably aren’t one of the four best teams in the nation.

But this handicap has nothing to do with that; it’s all about trying to read how the committee will react to the likeliest outcome. Given their remaining path, Clemson looks like the third-likeliest playoff participant behind Georgia and Ohio State.

That’s two bets to start the week off with, but there’s a lot more to go with the final full slate of the season.

Read below for picks on every Week 13 game. Lines are the best available on the chosen side at publication time in Nevada. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories. The record on the year stands at 324-264-9 (55-71-1 on plays, 130-84-7 on leans and 139-109-1 on guesses).

Big Games

Tulane +2 at Cincinnati, over/under: 46.5. The winner advances directly into the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, which may feel a bit incomplete without a Tulane team that’s been the league’s best all year. But it’s hard to get around the fact that the line on this game was Cincinnati -27 a year ago — a show of how large of a talent discrepancy exists between these two programs. Guess: Cincinnati -2.

NC State +6 at North Carolina, over/under: 56. Forgive North Carolina’s 21-17 loss to Georgia Tech as 22-point favorites last week considering it came out flat after having already clinched the ACC Coastal division title. The Tar Heels won’t make the same mistake this week, not against an in-state rival that shouldn’t be able to keep pace offensively with 2023-2024 Heisman frontrunner Drake Maye. Play: North Carolina -6.

Michigan +7.5 at Ohio State, over/under: 56.5. Ohio State’s been somewhat underwhelming this season, and yet still leads the nation in expected points added per play and net yards per play. This number is fair based on what’s happened on the field this season, but the Buckeyes may still another gear to reach. Lean: Ohio State -7.5.

South Carolina +14.5 at Clemson, over/under: 49.5. This is a big number for an offense that’s struggled to produce for stretches of the season, but it’s hard to ignore the matchup edges in the Tigers’ favor. Their biggest strength rests in the trenches, which is right where South Carolina is most vulnerable.  Lean: Clemson -14.5.

Oregon -3.5 at Oregon State, over/under: 57. Not only are these rivals’ efficiency metrics quietly about even, but Oregon State is also the healthier team. The Ducks have a talent advantage but the Beavers are more experienced and hold no negligible homefield advantage at Reser Stadium. Play: Oregon State +3.5.

Iowa State +10.5 at TCU, over/under: 47.5. Iowa State might be 4-7 straight-up but its only lost one game by this many points all season. The Cyclones offer a tough matchup for the Horned Frogs as they’re going to slow down, muck up the game and refuse to let explosive plays beat them. Play: Iowa State +10.5.

Notre Dame +5.5 at USC, over/under: 62.5. This spread is just about right but it’s a great offense (USC’s led by new Heisman favorite Caleb Williams at quarterback for USC) against a great defense (Notre Dame’s stingy unit led by a bullying front). In such matchups, give me the great offense — especially at home. Guess: USC -5.5.

Kansas +12 at Kansas State, over/under: 62.5. The Jayhawks are more than a cute story as their underlying metrics (including a +1.66 net yards per play to rank 10^th in the nation) indicate they’ve actually underachieved with their 6-5 straight-up record. Kansas may not beat rival Kansas State, but it has a better chance to hang in the game than this line implies. Lean: Kansas +12.

Big Plays

Baylor +8.5 at Texas, over/under: 55.5. This game is notably scheduled for Friday meaning Texas is guaranteed to still be alive for the Big 12 Championship Game (it needs Kansas State to lose on Saturday). That means the Longhorns will bring their best effort, and their best effort should mean a double-digit win over a tough but outmatched Bears’ team. Play: Texas -8.5.

Nebraska +10.5 at Iowa, over/under: 37. Yes, Iowa struggles to score but it has everything to play for with a chance to reach the Big Ten Conference Championship Game for the second consecutive year. Nebraska has nothing to play for as the program heads into a transitional offseason. Play: Iowa -10.5.

West Virginia +9.5 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 66.5. Oklahoma State put everything into Bedlam last week with a few injured players including quarterback Spencer Sanders suiting up only to lose 28-13 as 7-point underdogs in a game that didn’t feel as close as the score indicated. The Cowboys are still too beaten up to be laying this many points to any halfway competent opponent. Play: West Virginia +9.5.

Louisville +3.5 at Kentucky, over/under: 43. This game means everything to a veteran Cardinals’ team after the Wildcats have embarrassed them the past two seasons. They’ve also got more than enough standout skill players to exact their revenge. Play: Louisville +3.5.

Auburn +21.5 at Alabama, over/under: 48.5. It’s been fun to watch interim coach Carnell “Cadillac” Williams revive Auburn with a 2-1 straight-up, 3-0 against the spread record since taking over, but this number was previously shaping up to be as much as 10 points higher. Don’t overpay for the Tigers against what remains a much more stacked Crimson Tide roster. Play: Alabama -21.5.

Other Games

Play: Stanford +6.5 vs. BYU

Lean: SMU -4 vs. Memphis

Lean: UAB -17.5 at Louisiana Tech

Lean: Virginia Tech -1.5 vs. Virginia

Lean: California +10.5 vs. UCLA

Lean: Michigan State +18.5 at Penn State

Lean: Minnesota +3.5 at Wisconsin

Lean: Boise State -15.5 vs. Utah State

Lean: Florida State -9 vs. Florida

Lean: Arkansas State +13.5 vs. Troy

Lean: James Madison -13.5 vs. Coastal Carolina

Lean: Buffalo -4 vs. Kent State

Lean: Miami (Ohio) -3 vs. Ball State

Lean: Mississippi State +2.5 at Ole Miss

Lean: Houston -12 vs. Tulsa

Lean: Arizona State +4 at Arizona

Lean: Southern Miss -3 at UL Monroe

Lean: Marshall -5.5 vs. Georgia State

Lean: Duke +3.5 vs. Wake Forest

Lean: South Alabama -15 vs. Old Dominion

Lean: Wyoming +15.5 at Fresno State

Lean: Arkansas -3 at Missouri

Lean: Northern Illinois -10 vs. Akron

Lean: Western Michigan +7.5 vs. Toledo

Lean: UTSA -18 vs. UTEP

Lean: Appalachian State -4 at Georgia Southern

Lean: Oklahoma -2 at Texas Tech

Guess: Georgia -35.5 vs. Georgia Tech

Guess: Rice +14 at North Texas

Guess: LSU -9.5 at Texas A&M

Guess: Air Force -1.5 at San Diego State

Guess: Indiana +10.5 vs. Purdue

Guess: Syracuse -10 at Boston College

Guess: Temple +13.5 vs. East Carolina

Guess: Massachusetts +20.5 vs. Army

Guess: Louisiana -5 at Texas State

Guess: Florida Atlantic +7 vs. Western Kentucky

Guess: UCF -19 at South Florida

Guess: Bowling Green +6.5 at Ohio

Guess: Tennessee -13.5 at Vanderbilt

Guess: Rutgers +14 at Maryland

Guess: New Mexico +7.5 at Colorado State

Guess: Liberty -23.5 vs. New Mexico State

Guess: Central Michigan -1.5 at Eastern Michigan

Guess: Florida International +20 vs. Middle Tennessee State

Guess: Colorado +30 vs. Utah

Guess: Illinois -13.5 at Northwestern

Guess: Washington -2 at Washington State

Guess: Pittsburgh -6.5 at Miami

Guess: UNR +12.5 at UNLV

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or