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September 17, 2014

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Vegas odds for the World Cup: Knockout stage betting preview and lines

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Rodrigo Abd / AP

Colombia soccer fans celebrate after their team scored against Uruguay as they watch the World Cup round of 16 match at the FIFA Fan Fest in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Saturday, June 28, 2014.

2014 World Cup Fans

Carmen Colosimo reacts while watching at the Hofbrauhaus as the United States takes on Germany in their Group G game at the World Cup in Brazil Thursday, June 26, 2014. Launch slideshow »

Odds to win 2014 World Cup

  • Brazil: 11-to-4
  • Germany: 7-to-2
  • Argentina: 4-to-1
  • Netherlands: 6-to-1
  • France: 8-to-1
  • Belgium: 20-to-1
  • Colombia: 20-to-1
  • Mexico: 25-to-1
  • Chile: 30-to-1
  • Uruguay: 40-to-1
  • Costa Rica: 40-to-1
  • U.S.: 50-to-1
  • Switzerland: 80-to-1
  • Greece: 80-to-1
  • Nigeria: 200-to-1
  • Algeria: 200-to-1
  • Numbers from LVH Superbook

The 2014 FIFA World Cup deserves all the praise it has received throughout the opening two-week group stage with one exception.

The tournament has proved as exciting, action-packed and offense-filled as soccer extremists have extolled. Just don’t call it unpredictable.

Much to the chagrin of sports books, the World Cup has more or less played out to form going into the knockout stage, which begins with the round of 16 on Saturday in Brazil. The Las Vegas odds forecast the tournament’s early returns to an uncanny degree.

Six of the eight group winners were posted as the favorite at the LVH Superbook before the World Cup began. Thirteen of the top 16 teams in the Superbook’s pre-tournament future odds are still kicking into the final two weeks.

Included in both of those groups are the three overall favorites — Brazil, Argentina and Germany — which stayed in their home at the top of betting boards, albeit with a minor remodel.

Amid the betting market’s continued indifference, and after an underwhelming Group A showing that included a referee-assisted win over Croatia and a draw against Mexico, the host country’s odds have heightened from plus-250 (risking $1 to win $2.50) to plus-275 to win the World Cup. Adjusting for the house’s hold, Brazil is now given just a 22 percent chance to sweep the necessary four games remaining.

Argentina’s 4-to-1 price hasn’t altered, but it is no longer seen as the second most-likely champion in Las Vegas. The Germans surpassed the Argentines, as their odds moved from 5-to-1 to 7-to-2.

Those numbers translate to Germany having an 18.3 percent chance to prevail, while Argentina is knocked back to 16.5 percent.

Part of the cause for Germany’s boost is the fourth- and fifth-favorites, Spain and Italy, flaming out early. Two other European squads intruded into the numerical territory previously occupied by Spain’s 13-to-2 and Italy’s 20-to-1.

Netherlands and France are now 6-to-1 and 8-to-1, respectively, after beginning the World Cup at 25-to-1 apiece. As teams with two of the three best goal differentials through the group stage — Netherlands finished plus-7 and France plus-6 — their downward modification is understandable.

The only contender that played as well as Netherlands was Colombia, which went from 30-to-1 to 20-to-1, which posted a plus-7 of its own.

At even, the United States had one of the four worst goal differentials of the advancing teams yet still dropped from 100- to 50-to-1. The movement is a result of gamblers loading up on the U.S. in the future market.

Oddsmakers won’t be joining in on the patriotic fervor this Fourth of July. Every game the U.S. wins eats another chunk out of casinos’ bottom line.

2014 World Cup: U.S. vs. Germany

US fans celebrate after their team advanced to the round of 16 despite losing 0-1 to Germany during the group G World Cup soccer match between the USA and Germany at the Arena Pernambuco in Recife, Brazil, Thursday, June 26, 2014. Launch slideshow »

An improbable World Cup victory would be as effacing to the profit column as awarding a lifetime of free buffets to a few hundred of the city’s most prolific diners.

The lone bettors feasting that heavily after the group stage are those who took Costa Rica, which similar to the U.S. went from 100- to 40-to-1, to win Group D. Defying odds of 25-to-1, the Central American country is the one mega-surprise of the World Cup so far.

Algeria was the lowest sports books’ power-rated team of the 32 to make the World Cup, so their inclusion in the knockout stage would also seem to fit the bill. But Group H was so frail that the North African nation’s survival isn’t stunning, as Algeria was a somewhat modest 4-to-1 to escape.

Unfortunately for Algeria, it would take a near-miracle to make it any further. Algeria is the longest shot to advance out of the round of 16 at plus-600 against Germany, which comes back at minus-900, in Monday’s match, denoting an 11 percent chance for Algeria.

Check out the LVH Superbook’s odds for the next eight World Cup games below and find updated future odds on the side of the page.

Saturday, June 28

Chile vs. Brazil, 9 a.m., Belo Horizonte

To Advance: Brazil minus-400, Chile plus-330

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Spread: Chile plus-1 vs. Brazil

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Result: Brazil minus-185, Draw plus-325, Chile plus-500

Uruguay vs. Colombia, 1 p.m., Rio de Janeiro

To Advance: Colombia minus-210, Uruguay plus-180

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Spread: Uruguay plus-0.5 vs. Colombia

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Result: Colombia minus-105, Draw plus-240, Uruguay plus-310

Sunday, June 29

Mexico vs. Netherlands, 9 a.m., Fortaleza

To Advance: Netherlands minus-190, Mexico plus-170

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Spread: Mexico plus-0.5 (minus-130) vs. Netherlands minus-0.5 (plus-110)

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Result: Netherlands plus-110, Draw plus-235, Mexico plus-260

Greece vs. Costa Rica, 1 p.m., Recife

To Advance: Costa Rica minus-135, Greece plus-115

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Spread: Greece pick ’em (plus-120) vs. Costa Rica (minus-140)

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Result: Costa Rica plus-145, Draw plus-200, Greece plus-220

Monday, June 30

Nigeria vs. France, 9 a.m., Brasilia

To Advance: France minus-420, Nigeria plus-350

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Spread: Nigeria plus-1 (even) vs. France minus-1 (minus-120)

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Result: France minus-210, Draw plus-320, Nigeria plus-625

Algeria vs. Germany, 1 p.m., Porto Alegre

To Advance: Germany minus-900, Algeria plus-600

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Spread: Algeria plus-1.5 vs. Germany

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Result: Germany minus-360, Draw plus-460, Algeria plus-1000

Tuesday, July 1

Switzerland vs. Argentina, 9 a.m., Sao Paulo

To Advance: Argentina minus-450, Switzerland plus-375

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Spread: Switzerland plus-1 (even) vs. Argentina minus-1 (minus-120)

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Result: Argentina minus-215, Draw plus-325, Switzerland plus-650

U.S. vs. Belgium, 1 p.m., Salvador

To Advance: Belgium minus-220, U.S. plus-190

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Spread: U.S. plus-0.5 (minus-105) vs. Belgium minus-0.5 (minus-115)

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Result: Belgium minus-115, Draw plus-240, U.S. plus-360

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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