Sports Wagering:

College football by the odds: Las Vegas picks and preview of Week 4

Danny Moloshok / AP

BYU linebacker Harvey Langi (21) dives to bring down UCLA running back Paul Perkins on a long gain during the first half of an NCAA football game Saturday, Sept. 19, 2015, in Pasadena, Calif.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Friday, Sept. 25, 2015 | 2:15 p.m.

Updated Saturday, Sept. 26, 2015 | 1:30 a.m.

Throw on a 2Pac record, sport a pair of board shorts and grab lunch at In-N-Out Burger to prepare for Saturday’s slate of college football.

It’s West Coast week on the gridiron. The Pac-12 absorbs the national spotlight in week 4 with its first full slate of conference games, including arguably the three most significant matchups of the weekend.

USC and Arizona State close out the schedule with Saturday’s latest kickoff where the Trojans lay six points on the road. A few hours before, conference-mates stage the only pair of games between ranked teams.

UCLA travels to Arizona as a 3-point favorite for a clash to determine the early front-runner in the Pac-12 South division. Utah needs to keep pace on its own by upsetting Oregon on the road as an 11.5-point underdog.

Out of five total Pac-12 games this weekend — Stanford beat Oregon State 42-24 late Friday after giving 15 points at Corvallis — four feature home underdogs. That wasn’t a profitable position in the Pac-12 last year, as teams taking points at home went 11-12-1 against the spread with only two outright upsets.

Sports books considered the Pac-12 the country’s most wide open conference in the preseason, and nothing has changed that position. It’s now just time to pare down the contenders, and get to the bottom of it.

Talking Points analyzes and picks four Pac-12 games this week as part of the college football by the odds series, which takes a weekly look at the 10 biggest games. The blog went 7-3 last week to bring the season total to 20-12 against the spread.

That’s far ahead of the goal of anything above 50 percent given the unprofitability of forcing a pick on and puts the pressure on keeping up for another week.

Check below for this week’s college football preview.

David A. Cleveland

BYU plus-7 at Michigan, over/under: 44.5; 9 a.m. on ABC

It’s only fitting that one of the biggest stories in college football this season goes to the sport’s biggest venue to square off against one of its biggest personalities.

BYU’s double-dose of Hail Mary victories in the first two weeks will go down as one of the 2015 season’s most memorable occurrences. The string almost extended another week.

BYU had the ball with a game winning drive opportunity at UCLA last week, but this time, freshman quarterback Tanner Mangum threw an interception instead of a completed end zone heave. The Cougars kept their point-spread consistency, covering by double digits in a third straight game by falling 24-23 to the Bruins as 16.5-point underdogs.

BYU ultimately faltered by giving up more than seven yards per rush, an issue that could spell trouble at Michigan Stadium. New coach Jim Harbaugh’s preferred power-run approach really started to pay off with the emergence of USC transfer Ty Isaac, who ran for 114 yards on eight carries in a 28-7 win over UNLV.

Isaac is now expected to split time with incumbent starter De’Veon Smith, who’s labored for 206 yards on 53 carries this season. Michigan stands at 1-2 against the spread after failing to beat minus-34 against UNLV, and all three of its games have gone under the total.

Pick: BYU plus-7 Not feeling great about this one, but oddsmakers have clearly undervalued the Cougars to this point so they’re the pick.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Georgia Tech minus-8 at Duke, over/under: 56; 9 a.m. on ESPN

Georgia Tech surrendered the nation’s longest covering streak last weekend without much of a fight.

The Yellow Jackets never as much as threatened the minus-2.5 point spread at Notre Dame in a 30-22 loss where they trailed 30-7 with a minute remaining. Georgia Tech, which had covered in nine straight dating back to last season, went from averaging more than 8 yards per carry in its first two games of the season to less than five against Notre Dame.

Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson wasn’t reserved in sharing his thoughts that quarterback Justin Thomas, who rushed for only 27 yards on 11 carries and threw for 109 yards on 8-for-24 passing, was flustered by a sturdy defense. Thomas must adjust quickly because Duke has similar defensive makeup.

The Blue Devils are one of 15 teams in the nation giving up less than 3 yards per carry. Hybrid rover DeVon Edwards and linebacker Dwayne Norman have keyed the success after helping snap a 10-game losing streak to Georgia Tech last year in a 31-25 victory when Duke was a 3.5-point underdog.

Duke’s problem may come with scoring. The Blue Devils only touchdown against their first real opponent, Northwestern last week, came when the defense snagged an interception just outside of the red zone.

Northwestern won the contest 19-10 as a 4-point underdog, terminating Duke’s own four-game covering streak.

Pick: Duke plus-8 How do the Blue Devils go from catching 3.5 points on the road in a win against Georgia Tech last year to nearly a touchdown more at home this year?
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Oklahoma State minus-3 at Texas, over/under: 61; 12:30 on ESPN

Both team’s capped uninspiring non-conference slates with reasons for optimism last week, managing their first covers of the year in high-flying affairs.

Kicker Nick Rose may have missed an extra point to send Texas into overtime with California, but freshman quarterback Jerrod Heard surpassed a school record held by Vince Young with 527 yards of offense. The Longhorns covered plus-6 behind 20 fourth-quarter points to lose 45-44.

Oklahoma State’s young quarterback, sophomore Mason Rudolph, torched UTSA for 280 yards and two touchdowns in a 69-14 victory as 26.5-point favorites. Rudolph pushed his way into the nation’s top six with 10.5 yards per passing attempt on the year.

The Cowboys and Longhorns were the Big 12’s two most underwhelming teams last season, both needing to pull upsets at the end of the year just to get to bowl eligibility. The high mark of Texas’ season, and perhaps Oklahoma State’s low point, came when it won in Stillwater, Okla., 28-7 as a 2-point underdog.

Oddly, the road team has dominated in this series with six straight victories and eight consecutive covers.

Pick: Oklahoma State minus-3 Everything is in place for a turnaround season at Oklahoma State, which is more than can be said for Texas considering its porous defense.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Tennessee minus-1.5 at Florida, over/under: 48; 12:30 on CBS

Tennessee is finding plenty of volunteers in Las Vegas.

Bettors remain ready and willing to put their money on coach Butch Jones’ team. After Tennessee was a popular wager in the preseason, their appeal has continued into this week.

Florida posted at minus-3 against Tennessee Sunday night in shops around town, but by Tuesday, the favorite had flipped. The Volunteers haven’t beaten the Gators in 10 years, going 3-6-1 against the spread through the span.

Jalen Hurd could emerge as the engine that powers them to a breakthrough as the sophomore running back has scored five touchdowns and ran for 300 yards so far this season. He’ll need some help on defense, where Tennessee has given up 5.2 yards per play this season.

Florida is the direct opposite. Despite facing two above-average offenses in East Carolina and Kentucky, Florida ranks in the top 10 nationally at holding opponents to 3.7 yards per play.

The Gators have perhaps the nation’s best cornerback in Vernon Hargreaves III to pair with one of the better linebackers in Antonio Morrison. There’s no talent of that caliber on the other side, where quarterback Will Grier has struggled to ignite an offense that’s also rushing for a middling 4.4 yards per carry given the weak competition it has faced.

Pick: Florida plus-1.5 The Gators’ defense is up to the task of stopping the Volunteers, while coach Jim McElwain should have some new wrinkles offensively.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

TCU minus-7 at Texas Tech, over/under: 80.5; 1:45 on Fox

Treyvone Boykin is the quarterback in this game who came into the season as the Heisman Trophy betting favorite. Patrick Mahomes, who wasn’t even listed at any offshore books where such Heisman wagers are permitted, is the quarterback in this game with arguably the better numbers this season.

Texas Tech’s sophomore signal caller has thrown for 1,029 yards while completing 66.4 percent of his passes. Mahomes has also run for 129 yards on 21 attempts.

Boykin has thrown for 985 yards while completing 65.7 percent of his passes. The star senior for TCU has 148 rushing yards on 32 carries.

Boykin has 10 touchdown passes to three interceptions while leading the Horned Frogs to a 1-2 against the spread start. Mahomes has nine touchdown passes to three interceptions while guiding the Red Raiders to a 2-0-1 against the spread record.

Boykin boosted his Heisman campaign in this matchup last year, throwing seven touchdown passes as TCU eclipsed the point total by itself in an 82-27 victory. But Texas Tech feels it’s on a revenge tour after knocking off Arkansas, another team that embarrassed the Red Raiders last year, 35-24 as 10-point underdogs at a neutral site last week.

Pick: Texas Tech plus-7 As a road favorite in the Big 12, TCU has gone 1-5 against the spread.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

California minus-3.5 at Washington, over/under: 60.5; 2:00 on Pac-12 Network

Preseason future odds implied in excess of a 90 percent probability that either Oregon or Stanford would win the Pac-12 North.

Those two programs have won the division every year since the Pac-12 implemented a championship game in 2011. If anyone can bust into the party this year, it’s going to be Washington or California.

The two reasonable darkhorses have started the season a combined 5-1 straight-up and against the spread. Chris Petersen struggled with a holdover talent-laden roster in his first season at Washington, but seems to click better with this year’s young core that contains many players he recruited.

The Huskies lost their opener 16-13 at Boise State but easily covered the 13-point spread. They’ve won their next two, and covered all three games by at least a touchdown behind a stingy defense led by cornerback Kevin King and linebacker Azeem Victor that’s allowing only 4.1 yards per play.

Washington will get a test from what’s likely the best team Air Raid disciple Sonny Dykes has ever coached. The Bears deserve the distinction for one reason — junior quarterback Jared Goff, who’s completed 73 percent of his passes for 898 yards and nine touchdowns to two interceptions.

Goff led Cal to easy covers over San Diego State and Grambling State before a suspect defense gave up three fourth-quarter touchdowns to Texas in a 45-44 win as 6.5-point favorites.

Pick: Washington plus-3.5 Going against Goff isn’t fun right now, but Washington is the better team from top to bottom.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Texas A&M minus-7.5 vs. Arkansas in Dallas, over/under: 59; 4:00 on ESPN

The betting market sides with Kliff Kingsbury.

The fiery Texas Tech coach capped off a rant against Arkansas counterpart Brett Bielema following an upset win last Saturday by declaring undefeated Texas A&M would probably kick the Razorbacks’ butt. The Aggies posted as a 4.5-point favorite the next day, and haven’t stopped rising.

It’s one of the most drastic line moves on the first four weeks of the season as Arkansas was initially a 6.5-point favorite in this neutral-site showdown when Golden Nugget opened its game of the year lines in June.

Texas A&M’s offense has been as electric as everyone expected with sophomore quarterback Kyle Allen and freshman receiver Christian Kirk, but it’s the defense that has the college football world excited. New defensive coordinator John Chavis has the Aggies’ much-maligned unit ranking in the top 20 at only giving up 4.3 yards per play.

One of the nation’s top edge rusher, sophomore Myles Garrett, has already recorded 5.5 sacks and five quarterback hits. Defense hasn’t gone as smoothly for the Razorbacks, which ranks 84th in the nation at surrendering 5.8 yards per play in a 1-2 straight-up and against the spread start to the year.

Arkansas’ offense has mostly lived up to its end of the bargain with quarterback Brandon Allen averaging nearly 10 yards per passing attempt and running back Alex Collins gaining six yards per carry.

Pick: Arkansas plus-7.5 The Razorbacks have the talent to turn their season around, and the Aggies have quickly become overvalued.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

UCLA minus-2.5 at Arizona, over/under: 66; 5:00 on ABC

No single defensive player in college football is significant enough to shift a point spread.

A set of them, however, can propel the betting market into action. That’s the case with UCLA as it opens the Pac-12 season with the most anticipated game of the week.

The Bruins announced future NFL first-round pick and star linebacker Myles Jack was out for the season with a knee injury shortly after he sealed a win over BYU last Saturday with an inception. Jack joins defensive tackle Eddie Vanderdoes and cornerback Fabian Moreau as All-American candidates that have been lost for the year over the last three weeks.

The betting line, which opened at UCLA minus-4.5, has crept into Arizona’s direction ever since the news. It was debatable if the Bruins deserved to lay points on the road in the first place after narrowly escaping BYU 24-23 as 16.5-point favorites.

UCLA’s only cover of the season came at UNLV, a 37-3 win as a 32-point favorite, in close fashion against a backup quarterback. Arizona has blown out overmatched Northern Arizona and UNR for covers over the last two weeks, but the reigning Pac-12 South champions are dealing with defensive uncertainty of their own.

Linebacker Scooby Wright, who scooped all of the major defensive player of the year awards last year, is questionable with a sprained knee.

pick: UCLA minus-2.5 Even with the injuries, the Bruins are the far better team and the line move makes them easier to get behind.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Utah plus-11.5 at Oregon, over/under: 64.5; 5:30 on Fox

Oregon’s run as the best bet in the country might be coming to an end.

No one has rewarded bettors over the last decade more than the Ducks, which in addition to being the most profitable team haven’t posted a losing record against the spread in 12 years. Judging by the first three weeks, bookmakers may have finally caught up.

Oregon never threatened to cover inflated point spreads against Eastern Washington and Georgia State, and its only cash of the year came in a backdoor variety at Michigan State.

Utah lost against the spread by a single point to Utah State, but has otherwise comfortably beaten the number against Fresno State and Michigan. The Utes posted their first winning record against the spread since joining the Pac-12 last year at 9-4 to tie the Ducks, which went 10-5, in conference probability.

The similarities between the two programs end there. The Ducks are going to look to spread out and speed up the game with quarterback Vernon Adams expected back from a finger injury and running back Royce Freeman picking up 7 yards per carry.

Utah wants to slow the game to a crawl behind power back Devontae Booker, one of four players in the country who already has more than 80 carries.

Pick: Oregon minus-11.5 Ducks seem to be forgotten, but this is a favorable spot to reassert their dominance.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

USC minus-6 at Arizona State, over/under: 62, 7:30 on ESPN

After USC fizzled to a 41-31 loss to Stanford last week, many nationally would label the Trojans as the Pac-12’s biggest disappointment.

In Las Vegas, that title belongs to the Sun Devils. Arizona State is the only winless team against the spread in the Pac-12 after it putted around with overmatched New Mexico and Cal Poly the last two weeks.

The Sun Devils also failed to impress in a week 1 showcase opportunity against Texas A&M, losing 38-17 as 3-point underdogs. Those sins seem greater than the Trojans’ fall from the top of the board in odds to win the Pac-12.

USC may have an iffy defense, but its offense should make up for it on most occasions. The Trojans are the most efficient offensive team in the country, according to Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings.

They boast balance other teams envy with quarterback Cody Kessler completing nearly 79 percent of his passes for 922 yards and 10 touchdowns to no interceptions this season. The running game has been just as effective with Tre Madden, Ronald Jones II and Justin Davis all averaging at least seven yards per carry.

Arizona State has beaten USC in each of the last two seasons with offensive outbursts, but it’s still to be determined if the Sun Devils are capable this year. They’re second-to-last in the Pac-12 with 4.9 yards per play as the offensive line has scuffled.

Pick: Arizona State plus-6 Like USC to win straight-up, but these are a few too many points.