College football by the odds: Las Vegas picks and preview of Week 3

Associated Press

Auburn defensive back Jonathan Jones (3) breaks up a pass intended for Jacksonville State wide receiver Ruben Gonzalez (15) during the second half of an NCAA football game Saturday, Sept. 12, 2015, in Auburn, Ala.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Sept. 18, 2015 | noon

Portland State fans can exhale.

The Vikings’ 24-17 victory over Washington State as a 31.5-point underdog stands as the biggest upset of the college football season, and likely one that will stay in everyone’s minds through the end of the year. The victory was almost completely washed away last Saturday when Auburn came dangerously close to outdoing Washington State in the category of inexcusable losses.

The Tigers came into a game with in-state Football Championship Subdivision opponent Jacksonville State as a 41-point favorite but trailed 20-13 in the final minutes. It took a combination of late fortunes for the Tigers, inexplicable conservatism from the Gamecocks and overtime to enable Auburn to prevail 27-20.

A Jacksonville State win would have gone down as the biggest upset in college football point-spread history. As it stands, the underdogs haven’t pulled off many coups through two weeks in college football.

Portland State is joined by only two other double-digit underdogs that won outright. Houston was able to down Louisville 34-31 on the road while taking 13.5 points on the betting line for the second-biggest upset. The third-biggest underdog to succeed was rather anonymous, as Florida International knocked off UCF 15-14 as an 11.5-point underdog on the opening Thursday night of the season.

Perhaps that can change in week 3, which provides easily college football’s most compelling slate of games so far this season. Talking Points is here to break them all down with picks. After going 5-5 last week, we’re 13-9 against the spread for the season.

The goal is anything above 50 percent, given the difficulty of forcing a pick on the 10 biggest games of the week.

Check below for this week’s edition of college football by the odds.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Auburn plus-7 at LSU, over/under: 48.5; 12:30 on CBS

The quantitative punishments for Auburn's escape against Jacksonville State are in, and they’re severe.

The Tigers from Alabama are now as high as 30-to-1 to win the national championship, despite plummeting to as low as 12-to-1 during the summer. They’re also perceived as far less likely to leave Death Valley with a victory, as they were only plus-2.5 in last week’s look-ahead line at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

The Tigers from Louisiana failed to cover themselves last week, only leaving Mississippi State with a 21-19 victory as 3.5-point favorites after the home team missed a field goal to end the game. This matchup was LSU’s low point last season, as Auburn stomped it 41-7 as 7-point favorites.

Then Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall ran for more than 100 yards, but coach Gus Malzahn has tried to de-emphasize the ground game with current starter Jeremy Johnson. It will be interesting to see if that changes because of Johnson’s struggles to throw the ball through two games that include five interceptions to two touchdowns.

LSU running back Leonard Fournette went for 159 yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries against Mississippi State, which could present a problem for an Auburn defense giving up five yards per carry.

Pick: Auburn plus-7 Still picking LSU straight-up, but it’s hard to imagine anything less than Auburn’s maximum effort after last week’s humbling.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Georgia Tech minus-2.5 at Notre Dame, over/under: 55; 12:30 on NBC

Not since before “Rudy,” which culminates in a Notre Dame victory over Georgia Tech, was released in 1993 have the Irish fought off the Yellow Jackets on the point spread.

Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly looked to correct the 0-for-4 run — 1-3 straight-up — over the last 18 years by drilling his experienced defense on the triple option from the start of practice this year. It’s a good thing the defense can maintain its planned game plan, because major changes are needed on offense after quarterback Malik Zaire went down for the year with a broken ankle.

The Irish lose Zaire’s rushing ability to a more traditional style from DeShone Kizer. Notre Dame came back to beat Virginia 34-27, though not cover the 12-point spread, last week behind Kizer, completing eight of 12 passes for 92 yards and two touchdowns.

Bettors prefer Zaire, as Notre Dame was a 9-point favorite in this game before the injury. Some of the movement comes from the success of Georgia Tech, which picked up where it left off last season by covering in two straight to improve to a 9-game covering streak.

The Yellow Jackets lead the nation in rushing, with freshman Marcus Marshall averaging 16 yards per carry.

Pick: Notre Dame plus-2.5 Georgia Tech blowing out Alcorn State and Tulane 134-16 means little.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Nebraska plus-3.5 at Miami, over/under: 58; 12:30 on ESPN2

The last time these teams met in South Florida, it was for the national championship in the 1995 Orange Bowl.

Neither the Cornhuskers, who won that meeting 20 years ago, nor the Hurricanes are in the conversation this year at odds of above 200-to-1. The programs have endured long-lasting falls.

Everyone witnessed Nebraska’s tumble this season in the Hail Mary loss to BYU two weeks ago, but Miami nearly dropped harder last Friday. The Hurricanes were deadlocked with Florida Atlantic at 20-20 in the third quarter before scoring 24 unanswered points to end the game and cover the 17-point spread.

Both teams need to address defensive issues. Nebraska is getting gashed through the air, giving up 7.6 yards per pass attempt.

Miami quarterback Brad Kaaya, who has 460 yards and no interceptions through two games, could exploit the shaky secondary. Nebraska running back Terrell Newby, who had 198 yards on 28 carries last week could similarly ding a Miami defensive front surrendering 6.8 yards per rush.

Pick: Nebraska plus-3.5 More trusting of Nebraska’s coaching staff to repair the early-season mistakes.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

South Carolina plus-16.5 at Georgia, over/under: 52.5; 3:00 on ESPN

If this is truly the final year of South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier’s career, then he could go out sticking it to hated rival Georgia like never before.

It’s only the second time this century that this matchup carries a point spread of more than two touchdowns. The first time came in Spurrier’s debut 2005 season, when South Carolina narrowly fell at Georgia 17-15 as 18.5-point underdogs.

Spurrier has done exceedingly well against Georgia at South Carolina, going 7-2-1 against the spread and 5-5 straight-up, despite being an underdog in seven of 10 meetings. This line may feel inflated due to South Carolina’s rough start to the season, which included a lucky win over North Carolina two weeks ago and a 26-22 loss to Kentucky as 7-point favorites last week.

But Georgia sat as a 14-point favorite over the summer, so an extra field goal seems reasonable with South Carolina losing quarterback Connor Mitch and having to turn to former walk-on Perry Orth.

The Gamecocks are also giving up 5.9 yards per rush attempt, which rates 107th in the nation. Georgia’s Nick Chubb is averaging 8.8 yards per carry, which is tied for the best in the country among backs with at least 30 attempts.

Pick: Georgia minus-16.5 These teams simply aren’t in the same class.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Florida minus-3 at Kentucky, over/under: 52.5; 4:30 on SEC Network

Florida’s lackluster 31-24 win over East Carolina, paired with Kentucky’s 26-22 triumph at South Carolina last week, has created buzz that the nation’s longest series winning streak could be numbered.

The Gators have beaten the Wildcats in 28 straight contests, which ascended to college football’s best after Temple upset Penn State in week 1. The point spread hasn’t been this low in 26 years for the matchup between the SEC East opponents.

And it may not have dipped to a field goal had these teams faced off in week 2 instead of week 3. The impressions were flipped to open the season.

Florida received praise for easily covering the 34-point spread in a 61-13 walloping of New Mexico State. Kentucky fooled around as a 17-point favorite with UL-Lafayette, a team notably worse than East Carolina, to barely win 40-33.

Florida’s defense has given up a whole two yards per play less than Kentucky’s, 3.9 to 5.9, and gets back likely first-round NFL Draft pick Vernon Hargreaves III at cornerback this week. The Gators’ offense has also rated out better, 6.9 yards per play to the Wildcats’ 6.6, with alternating quarterbacks Will Grier and Treon Harris being more efficient than counterpart Patrick Towles.

Pick: Florida minus-3 Let’s not go too crazy about the Wildcats winning their first SEC road game since 2009 last week, as they’re still 6-16-1 against the spread in conference over the last four years.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

California minus-7 at Texas, over/under: 57.5; 4:30 on Fox

The late-night bad beat stampede last Saturday trampled Longhorns’ bettors.

Stirred by the switch to quarterback Jerrod Heard, Texas bounced back from its season-opening 38-3 loss at Notre Dame with a scoring rally against Rice. The Longhorns were up 42-14 as 14.5-point favorites midway through the fourth quarter when they decided to call off the horses.

Rice found little resistance in scoring two unanswered touchdowns in the final seven minutes to beat the point spread.

California has left no hope for those who have bet against it in the first two weeks. The Golden Bears crippled San Diego State 35-7 as 12.5-point favorites last week after mauling Grambling 73-14 as 45-point favorites to open the year.

California quarterback Jared Goff ranks in the nation’s top 15 with 630 passing yards and is 14 away from setting the career school record. Texas’ secondary has struggled but was supposed to be a strength coming into the season.

California had one of the worst defenses in the nation last season but loaded up against poor opposition to post respectable showings in its first two games.

Pick: Texas plus-7 This line is absolutely ludicrous and ripe for the taking.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Pittsburgh plus-5.5 at Iowa, over/under: 47; 5:00 on Big Ten Network

Pittsburgh was a popular bet in the preseason with the return of its quarterback, leading rusher and leading receiver.

Everything has changed. Quarterback Chad Voytik was benched in a 24-7 win over Akron as 11.5-point favorites and likely lost his job to Tennessee transfer Nathan Peterman, though the Panthers aren’t announcing the starter ahead of the Iowa game. Running back James Conner had season-ending knee surgery, leaving lead-back duties to Qadree Ollison.

The freshman will get a stiff test in the Hawkeyes’ defense, which has given up less than three yards per rush behind an inexorable pair of defensive fronts that includes edge rusher Nate Meier. Iowa has started the year 2-0 both straight-up and against the spread.

Bettors have flipped to the other side with the previously overlooked Hawkeyes. Iowa opened as just a 3-point favorite in this game, but the number has flown to as high as 6 at offshore shops.

The one part of Pittsburgh’s summer optimism that remains unchanged is receiver Tyler Boyd, who caught 11 passes for 95 yards in his season debut. The Hawkeyes could have matchup problems with Boyd, who torched them for 153 yards in a 24-20 upset loss last season.

Pick: Pittsburgh plus-5.5 New Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi has a history of tormenting Iowa from his time as Michigan State’s defensive coordinator.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Stanford plus-10 at USC, over/under: 50.5; 5:00 on ABC

Jacksonville State’s upset would have unseated the 2007 game in this series, where Stanford defeated USC 24-23 as 39-point underdogs, for the biggest upset ever.

The following games have proven just as closely contested, with the average margin three points per game in Stanford’s favor over the last seven years. The teams have shown a surprising ability to adjust to each other’s contrasting styles of play depending on the year.

USC has won in the last two meetings where the final score fell under the total. Stanford, meanwhile, has prevailed in the last three matchups where the game went over.

It looks like another showdown between USC’s high-flying offense and Stanford’s obstinate defense in 2015. The Heisman candidacy of USC quarterback Cody Kessler has gotten off to a terrific start with boosts from a speedy set of skill players like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Ronald Jones II, Tre Madden and Justin Davis.

Kessler has seven touchdowns to no interceptions in leading the Trojans to a plus-99 point differential over Arkansas State and Idaho. Stanford is yielding only 3.5 yards per play, however, with a tougher-than-average slate through two weeks.

The Cardinal defeated UCF 31-7 as a 20-point favorite last week to recover from a 16-6 loss at Northwestern as a 10-point favorite.

Pick: Stanford plus-10 Give the Cardinal a mulligan for the Northwestern loss, which featured strangeness like a 9 a.m. kickoff for the west coast teams, and these teams look much more even.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Ole Miss plus-6.5 at Alabama, over/under: 53.5; 6:15 on ESPN

Not even USC can top Ole Miss’ scoring margin on the year, as the Rebels have pounded UT-Martin and Fresno State by a combined 125 points.

That’s the nation’s best point differential. Alabama is a different beast, albeit one that Ole Miss was able to conquer last season.

The Rebels knocked off the Crimson Tide 23-17 as 5.5-point underdogs in Oxford, Miss., and have also held their own in recent trips to Tuscaloosa, Ala.

Although Ole Miss only has a single road victory in the series, it has covered in four of five meetings at Bryant-Denny Stadium over the last decade. The Rebels’ defense was expected to be a strength with returners up front like brothers Robert and Denzel Nkemdiche to go with Tony Conner.

But it’s their offense that has caught fans off guard. Junior college transfer quarterback Chad Kelly has made the most of a receiving corps containing Laquon Treadwell, Quincy Adeboyejo and Cody Core in completing 72 percent of his passes for 557 yards.

The Rebels are the first team in SEC history to score more than 73 points in back-to-back weeks. Alabama has the best win of the two, however, in suffocating Wisconsin 35-17 as 12.5-point favorites in week 1.

Junior Heisman hopeful Derrick Henry has run for three touchdowns in both Alabama’s games but couldn’t help it to cover the 34.5-point spread in a 37-10 win over Middle Tennessee State.

Pick: Alabama minus-6.5 Call me easily seduced, but coach Nick Saban’s 9-1 straight-up and against-the-spread record in revenge games at Alabama is hard to shake.
Associated Press

BYU plus-16.5 at UCLA, over/under: 60; 7:30 on Fox Sports 1

Bookmakers’ preseason power rating of UCLA has proven close to perfect.

The Bruins pushed the opening and closing spread of their game against Virginia, winning 34-16 as 18-point favorites. They then kept their trip to UNLV interesting for bettors until the final minute, winning 37-3 as 32-point favorites.

BYU has deviated more from what its point spreads implied in a 2-0 straight-up and against-the-spread start. That’s the power of the Hail Mary.

A week after beating Nebraska at the last second, Tanner Mangum used a similar touchdown pass with 45 seconds left to put BYU up 28-24 as a 2.5-point home underdog against Boise State. Liberty High graduate Kai Nacua iced the victory with his third interception, which he returned 50 yards for a touchdown.

It’s going to take more than a late heave to beat UCLA, especially if BYU’s pass defense continues to give up 7.8 yards per attempt. That’s just short of the 7.5 yards per pass super freshman Josh Rosen has racked up for the Bruins.

Defense is where UCLA has really shined, however, with nine returning starters including Myles Jack and Fabian Moreau dismantling opponents.

Pick: UCLA minus-16.5 Yet another spread that looks dead-on, but slightly more comfortable laying the points with a team that’s only going to get better.