Bowl pick’em against the spread: Part 1

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Dec. 20, 2019 | 2 a.m.

College football teams sometimes rally around having extra time to prepare for bowl games and put on one of their best performances.

I'm hoping to emulate that strategy with my handicapping this year. There's no way around it: I'm in a slump going into college football's postseason.

It's been a great season picking every Football Bowl Subdivision game — the overall record stands at 394-319-18 — but the last three weeks haven't helped. Including conference championships and Army vs. Navy, I enter bowl season off three straight losing weeks.

Like a coach disappointed with his team's effort down the stretch, I'm hoping a slight breather to regroup can make the difference. I'll be picking every bowl game, spread out over approximately four columns.

Read below for the first week's worth of games. Picks are separated into three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen sides. Records for the year stand at 60-57-4 on plays, 109-62-2 on leans and 225-200-12 on guesses.

Bahamas Bowl at 11 a.m. Friday in Nassau, Bahamas: Buffalo minus-6.5 vs. Charlotte, over/under: 52.5. With 30 mph winds and rain in the forecast, the better defensive team should have an edge in this game. The Bulls are the far better defensive team, as the 49ers have reached their first bowl game in defiance of their defense, winning the types of shootouts unlikely to transpire in the elements. Lean: Buffalo minus-6.5.

Frisco Bowl at 4:30 p.m. Friday in Frisco, Texas: Utah State minus-6.5 vs. Kent State, over/under: 68. Maybe it's just horror at the thought of backing two MAC teams on the first day of bowl season, but I think this spread has trimmed too much from opening at minus-9.5. The Golden Flashes may have coaching and motivational edges, but there's a discrepancy in talent working in the Aggies' favor. Lean: Utah State minus-6.5.

New Mexico Bowl at 11 a.m. Saturday in Albuquerque, N.M.: Central Michigan plus-3.5 vs. San Diego State, over/under: 41. A spread that looks perfectly in the right place, let's resort to another fade of the MAC. Central Michigan wilted practically any time it played a decent opponent, building its resume instead against some of the worst teams in the nation. Guess: San Diego State minus-3.5.

Cure Bowl at 11:30 a.m. Saturday in Orlando, Fla.: Liberty plus-5 vs. Georgia Southern, over/under: 58.5. Under might be worth a look, as both defenses are bad but progressed as the season went on. Georgia Southern's triple option may also be slightly less lethal with Liberty having benefited from extra time to prepare. Guess: Liberty plus-5.

Boca Raton Bowl at 12:30 p.m. Saturday in Boca Raton, Fla.: SMU minus-3.5 vs. Florida Atlantic, over/under: 69.5. Most of the time it's all right to blindly assume an American Athletic Conference team will have a talent advantage over a Conference USA opponent. Not here. Lane Kiffin stocked the Owls' roster with high-level players, and even though he's departed for Ole Miss, a new coach is already in place with Willie Taggart, who's expected to retain interim bowl coach Glenn Spencer. Play: Florida Atlantic plus-3.5.

Camellia Bowl at 2:30 p.m. Saturday in Montgomery, Ala.: Florida International plus-2.5 vs. Arkansas State, over/under: 62. Arkansas State senior Omar Bayless is one of the best receivers playing in the early slate of bowl games and should give Florida International severe matchup problems. At this side of 3 on the spread, the value is on the favorite. Lean: Arkansas State minus-2.5.

Las Vegas Bowl at 4:30 p.m. Saturday at Sam Boyd Stadium: Boise State plus-3.5 vs. Washington, over/under: 49.5. I'm gutted to have missed out on the 3, and holding out hope that it reappears before kickoff, but Washington still looks the right side. There's been a lot of overreaction to the Huskies' 7-5 straight-up record, which is deceiving considering they went 0-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Their roster is a lot stronger than Boise State's as the Broncos took advantage of a relative down year in the Mountain West to emerge as conference champions. Play: Washington minus-3.5.

New Orleans Bowl at 6 p.m. Saturday in New Orleans: Appalachian State minus-17 vs. UAB, over/under: 47.5. Yes, UAB is among the worst teams to make a bowl game. No, I'm not interested in laying a big number with a coach in his first career game at the controls. Shawn Clark may end up doing well at Appalachian State, but this is a mismatch in his debut against Bill Clark — no relation — who's one of the most underrated coaches in the country. Play: UAB plus-17.

Gasparilla Bowl at 11:30 a.m. Monday in Tampa: UCF minus-17 vs. Marshall, over/under: 61.5. UCF's point differential last season: plus-267. UCF's point differential this season: plus-242. The Knights' dropoff isn't as steep as some believe as their three losses came by a total of 7 points. They should clobber Marshall, even though there's some concern about backdoor-covering possibilities. Guess: UCF minus-17.

Hawaii Bowl at 5 p.m. Tuesday in Honolulu, Hawaii: BYU minus-2 vs. Hawaii, over/under: 64. Number looks right but Hawaii has a big offensive advantage, and BYU has a big defensive advantage. I always prefer to skew toward offense. Guess: Hawaii plus-2.

Independence Bowl at 1 p.m. Thursday in Shreveport, La.: Louisiana Tech plus-6.5 vs. Miami, over/under: 50. Everything about this game screams to stay away. From an analytical standpoint, Miami is far superior and should cruise to an easy win over Louisiana Tech. But the Hurricanes are also a mess with reports of players being nonplussed with this game after a rough two-game losing streak to the end the season. The Hurricanes may even play Tate Martell at quarterback despite the Bishop Gorman graduate having been on a leave from the team last month. Guess: Louisiana Tech plus-6.5.

Quick Lane Bowl at 5 p.m. in Detroit: Pittsburgh minus-10.5 vs. Eastern Michigan, over/under: 49. Pittsburgh had a better net yard per play, .5 to Eastern Michigan's .1, despite facing a significantly tougher schedule. The Eagles do have coaching and locational advantages — this game is about 30 minutes from their campus — but that doesn't merit this large of an adjustment to a spread that should be around two touchdowns. Lean: Pittsburgh minus-10.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.