College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of championship weekend

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Dec. 6, 2019 | 2 a.m.

Only in sports betting can the Group of Five conference championship games wind up more important than the Power Five conference championship games after a full regular season of college football.

That's the situation I find myself in entering the first postseason edition of college football by the odds, which will continue to handicap every Football Bowl Subdivision game through bowl season. I have four live future bets on teams to win their conference championships that will be decided on Saturday but none of them involve the major conferences. I've got Memphis to win the American Athletic Conference at 7-to-1 and plus-325 (risking $1 to win $3.25), Florida Atlantic to win the Conference USA at 7-to-1, Hawaii to win the Mountain West Conference at 10-to-1 and Appalachian State to win the Sun Belt at plus-140.

It would be disingenuous to pretend those bets aren't holding a large influence on how I approach betting this weekend. Finding the way to manage them properly therefore is a big part of this week's column.

That's not at the detriment of the bigger games, as I've got three plays in the Power Five as well.

Read below to find picks on every game, labeled in three separate confidence categories. The record for the year stands at 391-311-18 — 60-52-4 on plays, 108-61-2 on leans and 233-198-12 on guesses. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas.

American Athletic Championship Game: Cincinnati plus-9.5 at Memphis, over/under: 57.5. This is my biggest position and also the one causing me the most distress trying to figure out how to handle. The reason why should be no surprise to anyone who's read the column all year: If betting on it practically every week hasn't given it away, I think Memphis is terrific. A lot better than Cincinnati. So much better that this line looks way too short. Cincinnati clearly tried in last week's game against Memphis — despite already clinching its division, it appeared to want home-field advantage here — and still needed good fortune to only lose 34-24 as 13.5-point underdogs. The Tigers were up 17-3 in the first quarter before committing some uncharacteristic mistakes and getting caught off guard by Bearcats freshman quarterback Ben Bryant. Normal starter Desmond Ridder is back in for this game, even though he's been laboring through a shoulder injury. Look for Cincinnati to go back to heavily relying on its run game, which isn't an advantageous strategy especially against Memphis' offensive explosiveness. So far, I haven't been able to talk myself into taking a bad number on Cincinnati just to lock in a profit with my Memphis futures. I don't think I'll bet Memphis either given my exposure, but at less than double digits, the Tigers hold value. Guess: Memphis minus-9.5.

ACC Championship Game: Virginia plus-29 vs. Clemson at Bank Of America Stadium in Charlotte, over/under: 56.5. Clemson coach Dabo Swinney is angry so he's going to run up the score against another opponent to drive home his point about the Tigers being disrespected. That's the narrative. If only it were that easy. If only Swinney was going to have the opportunity. In fairness, he might but there's reason to believe the Cavaliers may be able to play a bit of keep-away and limit possessions. Bronco Mendenhall is one of the most underrated coaches in the nation. It stands to reason he'll have a scheme to increase variance with the lesser team; it's been the basis of his success for most of his career. Virginia isn't as talent deficient as most think either. Senior quarterback Bryce Perkins has been spectacular both on the ground and through the air. Virginia is almost certainly the best team Clemson has seen since a Week 2 win over Texas A&M. This is too many points and safe to take as long as it stays over four touchdowns. Play: Virginia plus-29.

Big Ten Championship Game: Wisconsin plus-17 at Ohio State at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, over/under: 56.5. Wisconsin played Ohio State really well earlier this season — for a half. The Badgers eventually lost 38-7 as 14.5-point road underdogs but they were more of a nuisance for the Buckeyes than any other team this season. Ohio State should have arguably been downgraded since then, if only because of injuries. It's pretty beaten-up on defense and even quarterback Justin Fields may not be 100 percent after taking a big hit he returned from last week against Michigan. It's been masochistic to bet against Ohio State this season, but adjust from the road to a neutral site, and this is about a 6-point shift from the teams' first game. That's drastic. Guess: Wisconsin plus-17.

Big 12 Championship Game: Baylor plus-8.5 vs. Oklahoma at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, over/under: 64. "Even after they lost to Kansas State, Oklahoma barely beat TCU and Iowa State!" Everyone is trying to poke holes in the Sooners' resume even though there aren't many. The disconnect might be coming from the Big 12 being a highly underrated conference this year. It was comfortably the third best league in the land by the SP+ ratings with the gap between it and the SEC and Big Ten not as large as perceived. And Oklahoma performed a lot better than Baylor against conference opponents. They had a similar scoring margin —Oklahoma was plus-128 to Baylor's plus-117 — but the Sooners outgained conference opponents by nearly 3 yards per play to the Bears' 1.7 yard per play. Play: Oklahoma minus-8.5.

Conference USA Championship Game: UAB plus-7.5 at Florida Atlantic, over/under: 49. I'm so disappointed in J'Mar Smith, Adrian Hardy and James Jackson. If Louisiana Tech's trio of stars wouldn't have gotten suspended for two games, this championship game would have been a matchup between the two teams I held future tickets on. Instead, I have to sweat UAB, which has been the most overachieving team in the nation ever since its program was revived three years ago. The only solace comes in knowing the Blazers are going to have to overachieve again to beat the Owls. Florida Atlantic has the edge in every area except maybe coaching, where Lane Kiffin might be distracted with suitors lining up. The number looks right, however, and this is my smallest position so I'm going to let my future on Florida Atlantic ride. Guess: Florida Atlantic minus-7.5.

MAC Championship Game: Miami (Ohio) plus-7 vs. Central Michigan at Ford Field in Detroit, over/under: 54. Central Michigan came into the season as an 80-to-1 shot to win the MAC; Miami (Ohio) was 16-to-1. Yes, that still matters to an extent. Priors should still be factored in to power ratings, even if only slightly, and everything pointed towards the RedHawks having a far better roster a few months ago. Central Michigan has outperformed Miami (Ohio), especially on offense, but there's also a defensive mismatch. Miami (Ohio) is a lot better on that side of the ball and should provide more resistance than Central Michigan has seen in recent weeks. Lean: Miami (Ohio) plus-7.

Mountain West Championship Game: Hawaii plus-14 at Boise State, over/under: 64.5. I ruled out trying to hedge this one early on. With Boise State around minus-550 on the money line and my initial bet not being very large, there's just not a lot of room to maneuver. I'm left hoping the second-biggest underdog of the weekend can come through. Luckily, I think they have a decent chance — at least a better chance than the market seems to believe. This is not a vintage Boise State team. The Broncos are young and inconsistent. They're lucky to be sitting at 11-1 straight-up by virtue of going 4-1 in games decided by less than a touchdown. Hawaii has the more explosive offense, though it didn't translate to much in a 59-37 loss at Boise State as 12.5-point underdogs earlier this year. Hawaii has played better since then, however, and Boise State has dealt with more injuries — including to quarterback Hank Bachmeier — so this line shouldn't be higher than the first meeting. Lean: Hawaii plus-14.

Pac-12 Championship Game: Oregon plus-6.5 vs. Utah, over/under: 46. Utah has reached the Pac-12 Championship Game by obliterating everything in its path, beating conference opponents by an average of 28 points per game. Oregon has reached the Pac-12 Championship Game by playing strong defense and pulling out enough relatively close games, including a pair of wins it was arguably fortunate to obtain against Washington and Washington State. It's just too bad the Ducks couldn't eke out one more. If they had beaten Arizona State instead of losing 31-28 as a 13-point favorite two weeks ago, this line would be a field goal shorter and an easy play on Utah. Instead, the line is right in the range where it belongs. Guess: Utah minus-6.5.

SEC Championship Game: Georgia plus-7 vs. LSU at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, over/under: 54.5. Oddsmakers have struggled to price LSU properly for most of the season and that's no surprise because the Tigers have played so well that they're a true outlier. But so is Georgia, albeit in a different way. The Bulldogs are every bit as special on defense as the Tigers are on offense. Georgia is third in the nation in giving up only 4 yards per play — and it's played a much tougher schedule than the two teams in front of it, Ohio State and Clemson. LSU is tied for second in the nation in gaining 7.6 yards per play. A great offense is more valuable than a great defense, but this much more valuable? LSU's offense hasn't seen a defense as strong as Georgia's all season, let alone one that matches up so well. Georgia has a strong and deep secondary to throw at LSU's incredible receiving corps. Yes, Georgia is down its top two receivers and that deserves some adjustment. But not this big. Not when this is closer to a semi-home game than a true neutral-site contest for the Bulldogs in Atlanta. Georgia shouldn't be more than a 3.5-point underdog. Play: Georgia plus-7.

Sun Belt Championship Game: Louisiana-Lafayette plus-6.5 at Appalachian State, over/under: 56. This one sets up extremely well with my Appalachian State position. Appalachian State is the better team, but just slightly. The Mountaineers have a 1.4 net yard per play to the Ragin Cajuns' 1.3 net yard per play. They won 17-7 at Louisiana-Lafayette as 2.5-point underdogs earlier in the season in a game tighter than the final score indicates. This line has swung way too much in their direction since then. Appalachian State should be more like a 3-point favorite. I'm taking the points and shooting for the middle with a short Mountaineers win here. Play: Louisiana-Lafayette plus-6.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.