Weekend wagers: Seven bets to make including on Pennzoil 400

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, March 2, 2024 | 2 a.m.

NASCAR speeds into the center of Las Vegas sports books this weekend.

The Pennzoil 400 isn’t one of the auto racing organization’s biggest events of the year from a prestige standpoint, but it stands alone in the No. 1 spot from a betting perspective. It’s now been that way for more than two decades, ever since Las Vegas Motor Speedway first brought a Cup race to town in 1998.

The thousands of tourists that flock into town force bookmakers to beef up betting boards. Las Vegas now has a pair of race weekends annually, but the first one is always bigger than the second betting-wise, largely because the latter falls in the middle of football season.

College basketball takes over virtually every corner of sports books next week with the start of conference tournaments, but for one small stretch, the betting windows are NASCAR territory first and foremost. This column surely doesn’t mind, as NASCAR was our most fruitful sport a year ago.

I cleared more than $8,000 in profit in the weekend betting column on NASCAR in 2023. Let’s celebrate this big weekend with a few NASCAR plays — both a matchup and a couple outrights — to cap this week’s column.

Read on for seven bets in six sports this weekend. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Each sport has its own record with year-to-date performance tracked. Plays outside the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.

Golf (1-0, $200): Rory McIlroy -168 vs. Shane Lowry head-to-head in third round of Cognizant Classic (Circa Sports)

$252 to win $150

Through 36 holes, the event formerly, and more famously, known as Honda Classic looks like it belongs to McIlroy this year. He’s far and away the best player in the field, on good form and only three strokes back of leader Bud Cauley heading into Saturday’s all-important round. He might be worth an outright bet at an adjusted price of +450, but I’ll play it a little safer and just target him in a matchup here. Lowry has the same 8-under par score, but he’s  not on the same tier as McIlroy. There might be only a few players in the field that McIlroy shouldn’t be at least -200 against in a head-to-head matchup, and Lowry is not one of them.

NBA (0-0, $0): Denver Nuggets +1.5 at Los Angeles Lakers (Boyd Sports)

$330 to win $300

I’d grade this line as slightly off and wager on Denver even if these two teams were meeting under normal circumstances. These are not normal circumstances. The Lakers should be downgraded because of their situation. Not only has their depth taken a hit because of injury but they’re coming off a pair of draining comeback wins over the last two days. LeBron James and Anthony Davis both had to play high minutes to enable a record fourth-quarter comeback over the Clippers and then an overtime escape against the Wizards. The Nuggets are also playing a third game in four days, but they’re younger and better-equipped to handle the turnaround. Denver has beaten Los Angeles in seven consecutive tries and laid three points ahead of a 114-106 win at Crypto.com Arena earlier in the season. That -3 price would be a better line than the current +1.5.

NHL (1-0, $200): Chicago Blackhawks +113 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$200 to win $226

This should be a real crowd pleaser as a showdown between two of the three worst teams in the NHL by the standings. Columbus may have 13 more points than Chicago, but it’s not that much better. The two teams are closer to equally terrible, especially with Chicago’s injury report slightly cleaning up while Columbus' has gotten worse. Most notably, rookie phenom Connor Bedard is back for the Blackhawks while the Blue Jackets’ own first-year prospect — Adam Fantilli — is out along with veteran Patrik Laine. The Blue Jackets are also in a negative rest spot with their third game in four days and seventh in the last 12. The Blackhawks, meanwhile, are on extra rest with only their fifth game in 12 days. They shouldn’t be the home underdog, at least not this large of one.

College Basketball (1-0, $200): Gonzaga +2.5 at St. Mary’s (Boyd Sports)

$220 to win $200

Every remaining game is life or death for the bubble-riding Zags the rest of the way. The stakes are much more diminished for the Gaels, which have already locked up the West Coast Conference title. Surely, St. Mary’s is motivated to finish the regular season undefeated in the league, but it won’t be all that easy, not with their injury situation. Already down starter Joshua Jefferson — a local Liberty High product — they’re also now without depth big man Harry Wessels. Gonzaga has underachieved this season — including a 64-62 loss at home to St. Mary’s a month ago — but remains highly-talented. Chances are, Gonzaga sneaks into the NCAA Tournament. And the climb to certainty starts here.

UFC (0-1, -$200): Muhammad Mokaev vs. Alex Perez under 2.5 rounds at -110 (South Point)

$220 to win $200

Something is off with the undefeated British flyweight a near -400 favorite to win but the over/under only at a pick’em. If Mokaev deserves to be this large of a favorite, then a finish should be the most likely result. Perez has gotten submitted in two straight matches and could be at risk of tapping out again versus Mokaev. The Mexican veteran isn’t totally overmatched though. He’s a skilled striker and could catch Mokaev, who’s shown some vulnerability with his chin. There’s not a high finishing rate in the 125-pound division, but this is a matchup that could result in one. I’d juice the under at around -130, meaning there’s plenty of room for a bet.  

NASCAR (0-1, -$210): Erik Jones +110 head-to-head vs. Daniel Suarez in Pennzoil 400 (Caesars/William Hill)

$220 to win $200

Suarez had one of the most exciting wins of the last several years in last week’s race at Atlanta where he edged Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch by fragments of a second at the finish line. And it means absolutely nothing this week in Las Vegas. This track is entirely different, so there’s no reason he should be juiced as a big favorite in head-to-head matchups like this one. Jones has a longer track record of success at intermediate tracks like Las Vegas Motor Speedway and finds himself in improved equipment this year with his Legacy Motor Club team moving to Toyota. This should be a pick’em matchup, and getting plus-money on a highly-competent driver is a bargain.  

NASCAR (0-1, -$200): Joey Logano to win Pennzoil 400 at 18-to-1 (South Point) and Bubba Wallace to win Pennzoil 400 at 26-to-1 (Circa Sports)

$100 to win $1,800 on Logano and $70 to win $1,820 on Wallace

These are the two drivers we ultimately landed on in this week’s Sin City Beat television show, so why not back them up with bets? Logano didn’t run great in a pair of Las Vegas races last year, but historically, he’s been one of the most successful drivers on this track. Toyota meanwhile might have the fastest cars this weekend and while there’s plenty of more decorated drivers in that equipment ahead of him — like Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex — they are available at more reasonable odds. This is way too high of a price on a driver like Wallace who’s consistently improved and shown speed at tracks like Las Vegas. I hit a bunch of NASCAR outrights in Weekend Wagers last year. Let’s do it again this season.    

2024 Weekend betting column year to date: 17-13, $1,330.87

Weekend betting column all-time: 675-720-11, $32,611.87 

Previous pending wagers: Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Cleveland Cavaliers to win Central division at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); Victor Wembanyama to win NBA Rookie of the Year at +125 ($400 to win $500); Rudy Gobert to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year at 5-to-1 ($300 to win $1,500); South Carolina women's basketball to win NCAA Tournament at +450 ($400 to win $1,800); Oregon -1.5 -102 vs. Ohio State in Week 7 ($306 to win $300); Arizona to win NCAA Tournament at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Xander Schauffele to win the Masters ($100 to win $2,800); Los Angeles Clippers to finish with Western Conference No. 1 seed ($200 to win $520); Florida Panthers to win Stanley Cup at 10-to-1 ($250 to win $2,500); New York Yankees to win World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Christopher Bell to win NASCAR Cup championship at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); New York Liberty to win WNBA Championship at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or