The race for Las Vegas mayor is over — or is it?

By Jon Ralston

Friday, Feb. 4, 2011 | 2:01 a.m.

Carolyn Goodman will be the next mayor of Las Vegas. She has her husband’s name, a reservoir of community goodwill and the mental toughness for a campaign. She cannot lose to one of Oscar’s dwarves and two members of a widely reviled government board.

Game on? No, game over.

But just for the sake of argument — and because my editor won’t accept a two-paragraph column — let’s consider the possibility, however remote, that Mayor Oscar Goodman’s wife might not win.

This counterintuitive thought relies on a certain suspension of disbelief, one that asks you to believe that the most popular politician in the history of the universe cannot simply transfer his magic to his better half and that voters might actually want an election and not a coronation. It also asks you to wonder if you really believe the Goodmans awoke Wednesday to a new day, and Carolyn, as she said Thursday evening on “Face to Face,” had an epiphany that she should run even though her biggest fan, Oscar, told her not to — leaving her putative “friends” Councilman Steve Ross, Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani and, most of all, Commissioner Larry Brown stunned and/or devastated.

Mrs. Goodman expressed shock that people might not believe that story, insisting on the program (with hand held high) she does not lie, and that some remain convinced this is a long, premeditated act by a man and a woman who will not so gently give up their hegemony over Las Vegas. After her appearance on “Face to Face,” I am more convinced than ever that Carolyn Goodman is the tougher and smarter of the two, more serious of purpose, more intensely focused. Anyone who can talk about how much she loves Giunchigliani — news flash: friends don’t run against friends — even though her husband told Ross that she was running to block the commissioner from the mayoralty is good. Very good.

She seemed almost offended that I would even suggest that she didn’t like Giunchigliani and shocked that Ross would be telling people such a thing — even though the councilman contemporaneously informed people of what the mayor told him. It happened — so either Carolyn Goodman doesn’t know what Oscar Goodman was saying or she is Hepburn to his Tracy.

Not surprisingly, she could not name one difference with her husband. But she was expert at deflecting and parrying, while trying not to seem condescending and dismissive. How well did she carry it off? Time will tell.

The founder of the Meadows School matter-of-factly declared the public education system here a failure, which surely will infuriate and motivate public education teacher Giunchigliani. I wonder if she loves Carolyn as much as Carolyn loves her?

The fact is that many superficial watchers of politics already believe the race is over. But no one sophisticated in the world of politics believes it is that simple, and some don’t believe the first lady of Las Vegas is the favorite.

Oscar Goodman, when he first ran in 1999, was one of the most natural campaigners I have seen. He performed for the masses as he had for juries, convincing them black was white and up was down, all with a jocularity and charisma you don’t often see. Is Carolyn Goodman that talented?

She is a first-time candidate, with a lot of friends in the elite community, who will have to appeal to a universe of about 50,000 voters in April against a field of seasoned candidates. Giunchigliani is as tireless a campaigner as exists in this state and has been through a few wars — and having a consultant/husband who doesn’t play patty cake will help.

Brown has a solid base of support in the northwest — hello, Sun City — and is well-liked by a lot of people, although he hasn’t had a tough race in more than a decade. And Ross survived one of the nastiest, ugliest council races to win his seat the first time, has an LDS base and union friends.

It will not be easy for any of the candidates, including Carolyn Goodman, to count to the 15,000 votes that probably guarantees a seat in the runoff in June. Even Victor Chaltiel, a wealthy businessman who plans to file today, may have the bonne chance to be a factor if the Frenchman writes a big check.

I don’t think there is any such phenomenon as Oscar fatigue, nor do I think most people will buy the notion this is simply a way for His Honor to evade term limits (Does Ross Goodman or Eric Goodman run after Carolyn is done?).

Yes, this race is over. Break out the Bombay Sapphire. Raise your glasses to the next mayor, same as the old mayor.

All hail Carolyn.