Avello’s Oscar odds: Look out for ‘The Social Network,’ Firth and Portman

By John Katsilometes

Tuesday, Jan. 25, 2011 | 3:02 p.m.

Johnny Avello, the Wynn and Encore's sports book operations director, is a master oddsmaker, the kind of guy who can set an educated betting line on a couple of cockroaches racing across the kitchen floor.

But enough about my old apartment …

Avello, whom I ran into just this morning at KVVU Fox 5 during that station’s “More” show (link to his appearance here), has released his annual Academy Awards nomination odds list. Avello is a film buff who has been compiling and posting these odds for 16 years, making him the Academy Awards odds-making authority.

As always, the numbers posted are for entertainment purposes only. However, the latest numbers at Wynn and Encore for the Super Bowl -- Packers -2.5, total 44.5 -- you can jump all over those.

As for the Academy Awards nominations (a list he released preliminarily back in December), Avello likes “The Social Network” (2-to-3) to win for Best Picture. Other favorites: Colin Firth (1-to-5) in “The King’s Speech” for Best Actor, Natalie Portman (2-to-5) in “Black Swan” for Best Actress, Christian Bale (1-to-3) in “The Fighter” for Best Supporting Actor, Melissa Leo (even) in “The Fighter” for Best Supporting Actress, and David Fincher from “The Social Network” for Best Director.

Firth is the biggest favorite on the board. John Hawkes of “Winter's Bone,” at 50-to-1, is the longest shot on the list among the actor nominees. The heaviest underdog of all is "Winter's Bone" in the Best Picture field, at 125-to-1.

Avello’s full list of Oscar odds are as follows:

Best Picture: "The Social Network," 2-to-3; "The King's Speech," 5-to-2; "The Fighter," 15-to-1; "Black Swan," 20-to-1; "The Kids Are Alright," 40-to-1; "Toy Story 3," 50-to-1; "Inception," 60-to-1; "127 Hours," 75-to-1; "True Grit," 100-to-1; "Winter's Bone," 125-1.

Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech,” 1-to-5; James Franco, “127 Hours," 12-to-1; Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network,” 15-to-1; Jeff Bridges, “True Grit,” 20-to-1; Javier Bardem, “Biutiful,” 25-to-1.

Best Actress: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan,” 2-to-5; Annette Bening, “The Kids Are Alright,” 3-to-1; Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole,” 20-to-1; Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone,” 25-to-1; Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine,” 60-to-1.

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter,” 1-to-3; Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech,” 7-to-2; Jeremy Renner, “The Town,” 20-to-1; Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are Alright,” 40-to-1; John Hawkes, “Winter’s Bone,” 50-to-1.

Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, “The Fighter,” even; Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech,” 3-to-1; Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit,” 4-to-1; Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom,” 12-to-1; Amy Adams, “The Fighter,” 15-to-1.

Best Director: David Fincher, “The Social Network,” 1-to-4; Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech,” 6-to-1; Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan,” 20-to-1; Joel and Ethan Cohen, “True Grit,” 30-to-1; David O. Russell, “The Fighter,” 35-to-1.

Follow John Katsilometes on Twitter at twitter.com/JohnnyKats.