Las Vegas Sun

June 16, 2024

Campaign memo: Nevada is next state to show GOP stripes, Lowden “uniquely qualified” among primary challengers to beat Reid

A memo prepared for the Sue Lowden for U.S. Senate campaign by Robert Uithoven, who is managing the race, declares that the Tuesday elections bode well for her candidacy. I am not sure I agree with some of the conclusions -- including the apples to oranges comparison with Barack Obama's margins of victory and Tuesday night's -- but the memo shows how energized the GOP folks are and how they hope to energize the base in an anti-Reid jihad.

Here's part of the memo:

NEVADA IS NEXT

In just one year, New Jersey went from a 15-point Obama state ... to a 4-point Republican state --- a 19-point shift.

In just one year, Virginia went from a 6-point Obama state ... to a 17-point Republican state --- an astonishing 23-point shift.

And, just one year ago, Nevada was a 12-point Obama state. Now, according to the most recent, statewide poll, Sue Lowden leads Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid by 10 points --- a 22-point shift.

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RELEVANCE TO NEVADA

Some will dismiss last night's election results as inconsequential to Nevada. You can't ... unless you believe Harry Reid would have liked being on the ballot last night, himself. Not a chance.

Virginia comparisons are noteworthy because it was a red state that went blue in 08. They, like Nevada, have reliably Democratic urban centers - with reliable, rural Republican regions.

With New Jersey, all the talk was about the huge voter registration advantage for Democrats (significantly higher than Nevada's) ... as well as the political power of organized labor backing Corzine. Harry Reid's political survival in Nevada relies heavily on the Democratic registration advantage AND organized labor. He needs enthusiastic support from both, or he loses.

New Jersey has nearly 20 percent union membership amongst their workforce. Nevada is near 15 percent. At a time Reid needs labor more than ever, their numbers are less here than in NJ, and they - along with non-union workers - are facing high unemployment. It will be very difficult for union members to blame Sue Lowden for the current state of the economy. If the economy still matters most a year from now - and you can make a good argument that it will in Nevada - how will rational, independent-minded voters blame Sue Lowden? I'm certainly not suggesting she will win over the union base, but if their union dues and Harry Reid couldn't save their jobs, will they be motivated to reward him with another 6 years?

A final note ... we need to communicate the fact that under Harry Reid's watch, Nevada went from about 4.5 unemployment the last time he was on the ballot (2004) ... to nearly 14 percent and rising this time around. A near 300 percent increase.

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VOTER INTENSITY

It has been widely reported that voter intensity was high leading up to last night's elections. That's consistent with the high intensity numbers we've seen in our internal polling against Harry Reid. But, beginning today, those intensity levels will increase further as Reid becomes the national GOP's primary focus. After all, Jon Corzine and Creigh Deeds don't exactly motivate the national base the way the Senate Majority does. Last night's victories in New Jersey and Virginia will provide the RNC with an energized base and motivated donors. That's a great way to kick off the 2010 cycle.

Therefore, we must strike while the iron is hot. As Nevadans turn on Washington and Harry Reid, who will they turn to?

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PRIMARY DIFFERENCES

We must identify our base coalitions, solidify them - and introduce ourselves, and our ability to provide solutions to real problems. Independents left the GOP in droves to go to Obama - and last night, they left Obama (at least, the policies he, Reid and Pelosi are pushing in Washington). The base showed up in VA and NJ, but both elections were carried heavily by Independent voters. These folks are rejecting big bail-outs, big-spending, big deficits and big-government .... and they know the source of it is in Washington.

Harry Reid is Washington. He reminds us of that everyday.

In every instance, we must point to Sue's background, and how her experiences position her to make sound judgments on job creation. Sue Lowden is different from all other announced candidates in the Republican Primary. How? She's been effective.

Sue Lowden is not just a conservative, she understands the political process and has proven to be an effective conservative leader. She has been effective in creating thousands of private sector jobs, in meeting a payroll and in providing employee benefits. She has decades of experience in philanthropic efforts in Nevada and across America. She has the proven strength, toughness and determination to not only take on entrenched, out-of-touch politicians ..... but she has won. Sue Lowden has been consistent and effective in speaking out against tax hikes - but just as importantly, she has the experience of fighting and stopping them dead in their tracks in the legislature. As a conservative leader in our state legislature, Sue Lowden was effective in leading the effort to create Nevada's charter school program and she was the deciding vote to maintain Nevada's right-to-work status. Sue is a leader who never has been, and never will be, a back-bencher.

This cannot be said about anyone else in the Republican Primary. Sue is uniquely qualified in this field of primary challengers - because she, above any other, has been effective on the issues that will define our primary.

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SEIZE THE MOMENT

So, the speculation on polls is over. There is conclusive evidence based on last night that the mood of the nation has soured on Democrats and their inability to solve problems. Nancy Pelosi today said she was "happy with last night's results." These people cannot be more out of touch, and the voters see it. This applies to Nevada.

True, we are a year out. Perhaps Harry Reid gains popularity in the months ahead dealing with Afghanistan, pushing cap and trade, card check, and other divisive issues in Congress that expand government and its price tag (keep in mind, he's not done fighting for government-run health care). Harry Reid CANNOT win this election on issues. The harsh rebuke came last night.

Seize the moment.

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