New poll shows Berkley ahead with race tightening

Two GOP hopefuls, former District Judge Don Chairez and cable television executive Esther Quisenberry, have gained ground on Berkley since mid-June, according to a survey.

Berkley would still defeat both, but Chairez has pulled to within 6 percentage points and Quisenberry has picked up 15 points since the last poll. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

"You're looking at a close race here," said Del Ali, senior vice president of Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, the Maryland firm that conducted the poll. "Voters still haven't made up their minds."

In the latest survey of 378 district voters, Berkley is the choice of 39 percent while Chairez draws 33 percent. Twenty-eight percent remain undecided.

Quisenberry, who trailed Berkley by 39 percentage points in June, posted her gains mostly at Berkley's expense. Berkley would draw 40 percent of the vote, according to the latest poll, with Quisenberry winning 29 percent. Berkley led 53-14 in June. Thirty-one percent remain undecided, nearly the same as before.

The poll was conducted for the Las Vegas Review-Journal and KTNV-TV Channel 13.

"The polls are going to fluctuate," Berkley said Friday. "This is very early. I never believed this would be an easy race, but I've always felt the voters would support me because of my stance on the issues."

Ali said the higher profile of the GOP hopefuls contributed in part to the change in Berkley's numbers, but he speculated recent ethical questions probably hurt her more.

"The fact that unknown candidates who don't have her name recognition are doing better means that even though voters don't know the Republicans, some of them would still rather vote for one," Ali said.

Two other Republicans, Nancy Price and Robert Tauber, drew 25 percent and 21 percent, respectively, against Berkley, even though both were recognized by fewer than one-third of the poll sample.

Berkley drew negative publicity in June after a tape-recorded telephone conversation revealed she had advised her former boss, Las Vegas Sands Inc. Chairman Sheldon Adelson, to use his power and money to curry favor with politicians and judges.

Berkley's unfavorable ratings have risen slightly since June, from 13 percent to 18 percent, but her favorable rating also climbed, from 29 percent to 32 percent.

"I think the favorables remain solid," Berkley said. "I've worked very hard over the last few months to become knowledgeable about the issues. The voters don't see the hard work behind the scenes, but ultimately, that's what's going to pay off."

All candidates face primary challenges Sept. 1. Berkley must defeat Clay Baty on the Democratic side, while nine Republicans are vying for their party's nomination to replace Rep. John Ensign, the Republican who left the seat to challenge U.S. Sen. Harry Reid.

Democrats hold a registration edge in the district, which includes urban Las Vegas and Henderson, but the Republicans have held the seat for four years. National GOP officials consider the race critical to keeping a majority in the House of Representatives.

At this point, Ali said, name recognition could turn out to be more important than issues in the crowded GOP primary: "I think at this point, with the primary less than a month away, the candidate with the most money will probably win," he said.

Chairez and Quisenberry lead the fund-raising ranks and have made the biggest gains in name recognition - nearly three-quarters of those surveyed in June had never heard of Quisenberry, compared with 54 percent in the latest survey.

On the other hand, math teacher Jim Blockey, who has amassed significantly more money than many of the GOP hopefuls, remains unknown to 69 percent of those surveyed.

Chairez has attempted to capitalize on Berkley's troubles by using as his campaign slogan, "Fairness, not favors," and he said Friday he believes his message is getting through to voters.

"The thing I need to do now is distinguish myself from the other Republicans," he said. "I'm the only person with a proven record, based on my decisions as a judge. I have the courage and character to stand up and fight."

Quisenberry said she was encouraged by her higher numbers and said she expects to do even better as she steps up her campaign.

"We're walking the neighborhoods, putting up our signs and we'll go on TV in the last couple of weeks. It's interesting to see the other candidates have been picking up on the issues I've spoken about. Our work is paying off."

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