Where I Stand -- Tom Kaplan: Las Vegas quickly becoming mecca for restaurants

AT THE BEGINNING of this decade the mere notion that Las Vegas might become one of the leading restaurant cities in the United States by the millennium would have been considered preposterous.

But the list of soon-to-open megarestaurants joining the existing fine dining establishments would suggest that it is within the realm of possibility.

Exploding onto the culinary landscape will be will be Postrio, Le Cirque, Osteria del Circo, Jean Georges, new Wolfgang Puck and Emeril Lagasse restaurants, Olives Aqua, l'Aureole, China Grill, Valentino, Patina, Star Canyon and Nobu.

The pioneering success of Wolfgang Puck's Spago in 1992 sent a clear message to industry peers that Las Vegas was not a city of buffets but a sophisticated market drawing every type of customer. It was a market that was both untapped and desirous of contemporary fine dining experiences.

Within a year, Emeril's and Coyote Cafe opened, and within the last year Chinois, Napa and Drai's had arrived. Interestingly enough, however, that was all; six restaurants in six years. That number will quadruple alone in the next year. But why was there such initial slow growth despite the overwhelming success of the forerunners?

Those that caused this delay are now those that are responsible for the explosion in growth: the hotels. Interest by celebrity chefs to come to Las Vegas had become enormous. But the best and really only viable locations were and continue to be in the hotels.

With the exception of a few avant-garde properties that allowed independent operators inside, most hotels wanted to maintain control of their own restaurants for two reasons. The first was to protect their gaming customers. If there was a problem at a privately operated restaurant, a guest might blame the hotel and gamble somewhere else. Second, the hotels believed they were just as good and more profitable doing it themselves.

What most have now learned is that this is not necessarily true, and consequently they have opened up their properties to the culinary powerhouses with enticing business deals. And the competition is fierce. Rumors abound as to what restaurant is going into which hotel and at what cost.

Suddenly hotels are using these nationally famous institutions as major marketing tools to draw guests. And why not? They are equally significant to -- if not more significant than -- who is performing in the permanent theater or in the showroom. The restaurant is entertainment.

So who benefits from all this growth? The answer is everyone: the hotel, the restaurateur and, most importantly, the customer. Soon there will be a broad range of intricately designed restaurants from which to choose. Each will offer unique, high-quality cuisine with outstanding service and premium wine programs.

In particular, Las Vegans, who are always treated very specially at local restaurants such as Spago and Chinois, should receive the same attention at these new establishments. Similarly, some of the hotels such as Mandalay Bay and the Venetian are recognizing locals by creating special entrances and local-only valet service similar to that of the Forum Shops at Caesars.

The question must be asked: Beyond this tidal wave of openings, at what point does the market become saturated with too many restaurants as it may with hotel rooms and airport gates?

I am very bullish on the short term. Las Vegas can easily support more restaurants today. Customer demand is very high and during busy convention weeks, holidays and other special weekends reservations may be harder to obtain than tickets to Siegfried and Roy.

I believe most hotels will eventually engage outside restaurateurs to run or replace their fine dining rooms. And in the next few years these operators or others will open satellite restaurants in the expanding neighborhoods that are still relatively devoid of fine dining but are developing a demand.

But there are limits to any growth cycles, and restaurants will be no exception. In the long term, perhaps three to five years from now, I predict that there will be a serious shakeout as growth reaches a peak.

Restaurateurs who are consistent with food and service, who take excellent care of all their customers -- locals, tourists and conventioneers -- and who remain innovative will survive. Those who see Las Vegas as a quick place to make a buck, who do not invest in top management and culinary talent and who do not understand the unique business cycles will fail. Las Vegans and most visitors are becoming more discriminating. Their expectations will increase as more restaurants emerge.

Will food critics in the year 2000 list Las Vegas with New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Chicago as one of the country's finest food centers? Probably not. But they will acknowledge that in a short 10 years the city established itself as a major contender. And in no other city in the country will you find almost every master chef represented with an outpost of their famous establishments.

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