Thursday, Jan. 8, 1998 | 11:46 a.m.
BEFORE THE 1997-98 basketball season tipped off in November, the talk was about the Western Athletic Conference having a breakthrough year and getting expanded multiple bids to the NCAA Tournament come March.
The WAC, which has never received more than three bids to the Big Dance, was talking four minimum, maybe five, and possibly even six. But with Selection Sunday two months away, those early prognostications may have to be tempered somewhat.
If the field were selected today, it's likely only three teams -- Utah, New Mexico and Hawaii -- would get in. Colorado State would be on the bubble as would Texas Christian. UNLV, having played the first half of the season with missing components, would probably not get in. Ditto for Fresno State, which had an early-season collapse.
Fortunately, the entire conference season remains to be played along with the WAC tournament March 3-7 at the Thomas & Mack Center. A lot can change over the next eight weeks. And for those projected bubble teams, it better.
Let's start with the supposed "in" teams. Utah may be ranked No. 3 in the polls, but the Utes' Ratings Percentage Index (a crucial tournament criteria) is 57. It's as big a disparity as those who follow the game can remember.
Utah has beaten up on a lot of weak sisters with its lone quality win coming at Wake Forest, which is a mere shell of its former self with Tim Duncan gone.
Perhaps we'll know how legit Rick Majerus' team is in two weeks when it comes to the Mack to play UNLV, which will have Kevin Simmons in its lineup and will field a complete roster.
Still, despite its RPI, it's hard to imagine Utah not getting in.
New Mexico exposed TCU Monday for what it is, a bunch of ratballers who can't cope against a disciplined team which beat the Horned Frogs at their own game. The Lobos are for real and Clayton Shields may be the second-best player the country has never heard of.
The first, of course, is Hawaii's A.C. Carter, the outstanding point guard who has the Rainbows standing tall at 11-1 and in the polls for the first time since 1974.
If you think just because Hawaii has done all this playing at home and the Rainbows will wilt once they come over to the mainland, you're sadly mistaken. Hawaii proved last year it can win in the lower 48 and this year's team is better. Barring a major injury to Carter or Alika Smith, both of whom have been playing hurt most of the year anyway, Riley Wallace's squad will get one of the 64 bids.
So that leaves the rest of the WAC. TCU will need to beat a New Mexico or someone of that caliber down the line to impress the committee. Same for Colorado State, which hasn't beaten anyone of note in compiling a gaudy 11-1 start.
What about UNLV, you ask?
A strong run through the WAC will offset the lack of a quality win in November and December. Had the Rebels beaten Michigan, Syracuse, Rhode Island or UCLA, they would have some margin for error. But it'll probably take a 12-2 WAC record and an appearance in the WAC tourney championship game to impress the committee enough to let Bill Bayno's team in.
Not that it can't be done. With Keon Clark back, anything is possible. He's that good. But that's like preaching to the choir. Everyone knows he's a special player. And if the Rebels can get to the WAC title game with 20 or more wins, they'd probably make the field of 64, regardless of how they fared in the championship tilt.
The enigma team, of course, is Fresno State. The Bulldogs can prove they're not bogus by beating TCU tonight in Fort Worth. That would be a good start for Jerry Tarkanian. But it's looking more and more like Tark will have to run the table at the Thomas & Mack come March for the Bulldogs to get in. The 6-6 start killed them.
Two teams to keep an eye on are Wyoming and Southern Methodist. Both have started fast and if they weather the WAC schedule, they might sneak in.
But that's the acid test -- how will SMU and Wyoming fare in the WAC?
So if you're WAC commissioner Karl Benson, be glad Selection Sunday isn't this weekend.
In the meantime, the WAC has a lot of work to do if it plans on meeting its preseason agenda. It's time to roll up the sleeves and get busy.
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