Expert agrees LV will cool after 1999

Growth expert Richard Lee of First American Title Co. says the swell of mega-resort construction on the Strip will fuel a continuing hot economy through 1999 -- followed by slower growth.

"We're going to open those hotel rooms, I think 1999 will be incredible," Lee said Thursday.

He said the openings of the resorts will unleash a cycle that has generally repeated itself since 1989. Resorts open, bringing jobs, which translates into housing sales. Lee expects about three relatively lean years after 1999, followed by an economic rebound.

An estimated 18,000 hotel rooms will be added in Las Vegas through 1999, driven mostly by prominent Strip projects like Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, Paris and the Venetian. Those rooms will be supplemented by expansions at established hotel-casinos.

For every room, 2.5 jobs are created, Lee said. Those people will seek housing, which means real estate agents should prepare to accommodate them.

An improved housing market in Las Vegas is no small feat given the boom of recent years. New housing sales have hovered in the 20,000 range each of the past two years, and more than 10,000 new homes were built through June of this year.

Lee predicts a lull after 1999, followed by a strengthened economy.

Whether Las Vegas will build one too many hotel rooms is debatable, though.

Lee said two factors could aid in keeping tourism and the Las Vegas economy healthy. First, Japan's now-struggling economy should rebound within five to seven years, bringing more tourism dollars to Las Vegas with it.

"Japan will come back stronger than it's ever been," Lee said. "They like Vegas. They like to gamble."

Coupled with that will be the aging Baby Boomer generation in the United States. The roughly 70 million Boomers will be in their prime income years or entering retirement and have leisure dollars to spend in Las Vegas.

"They're not interested in leaving anything more than a mortgage to their children," Lee said.

As for future growth spots in the Valley, Lee said development will likely head southward along the Interstate 15 corridor. Development has generally filled the Valley in other directions.

That leaves the interstate corridor as the next logical development trend because of its accessibility and its proximity to California.

"That's really the only direction to go -- South," Lee said.

Lee spoke Thursday to more than 200 real estate professionals gathered for a seminar in Green Valley hosted by American Nevada Corp., one of the largest commercial and residential developers in the Las Vegas area. American Nevada is controlled by the Greenspun family, owner of the Las Vegas Sun.

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