Mixed reviews on future of city's economic boom

The question is drawing a mixed response from real estate executives and two area economists.

James Stuart, managing director of Colliers International commerical real estate company, said the city's economic future hinges on the success or failure of several major megaresorts now under construction.

"By the end of 1998, you will be able to point to a market that is declining," Stuart said. "If Bellagio doesn't make it, we have a big problem."

The $1.8 billion Bellagio hotel-casino is scheduled to open Oct. 15, the first of five new megaresorts opening in Las Vegas over the next two years.

Stuart was one of four panelists who discussed Southern Nevada economic conditions during a commercial development update sponsored by the Southern Nevada chapter of the National Association of Industrial and Office Properties.

But two economists who monitor Southern Nevada conditions said slower growth rates the past year will not lead to an economic downturn.

"I think what you've got going there is some nail biting, and that's to be expected for a while until these major (resort) projects open," said John Mitchell, senior vice president and chief economist for Portland, Ore.-based U.S. Bancorp.

UNLV economist Keith Schwer said he doesn't see a decline in Las Vegas' short-term future.

The Las Vegas economy will actually get a boost through 1999 because of the new resorts, which include The Venetian, Paris and Mandalay Bay, said Schwer, director of UNLV's Center for Business and Economic Research. The Aladdin is scheduled to open a new hotel-casino in 2000. The new properties will add 20,000 rooms to the current inventory of 106,000 rooms.

Tourism volume is down 2.7 percent through April and convention attendance declined 9.3 percent because several large conventions from 1997 did not return in 1998, the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority reported.

The number of passengers traveling through McCarran International Airport declined 1.9 percent for the year through May compared with the same period in 1997, according to the Clark County Aviation Department.

"I see some of the reasons for their concern," Schwer said of the real estate panelists. "It may take some time to fill the rooms coming on line. Gaming revenues may not reach projections until a later date in time, but we've had a solid economy for the last 13 to 14 years and we're seeing some flattening (of the growth)," he said.

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