Wednesday, Oct. 21, 1998 | 11:14 a.m.
RENO -- Despite an uncertain national economy and the threat of Indian gambling in California, the number of jobs in Nevada should increase by a strong 6.4 percent next year, employment experts predict.
The growth will be fueled by the opening of a handful of new hotel-casinos on the Strip in Las Vegas, where employment is expected to jump 8.4 percent. That compares to a 5 percent growth rate in Las Vegas this year.
Relying on these bullish reports, the state Employment Security Advisory Council Tuesday recommended the same low 1.4 percent average unemployment tax rate for business in 1999 as this year.
Despite the unanimous vote, some council members had doubts.
"The economy is so shaky, it's scary," said Walt Henderson of Reno. "Things could go to hell in a hand basket real quick."
Henderson worried whether the 1.4 percent tax rate would raise enough money to pay weekly unemployment benefits if there's a downturn in the economy.
Council Chairman Paul Havas of Reno said there were "a lot of ifs" in the national economy. And he was worried about California approving an initiative to open wider the gambling on Indian reservations.
Robert Murdock, chief of the Bureau of Research and Analysis and Gary Lungstrum, a supervising economist in the Employment Security Division, both said the questions about Indian casinos and the national economy have been taken into account in making the forecasts.
Murdock said if California voters approve the Indian casinos, "It will take some time for them to gear up. The impact should not be significant next year."
But he added he doesn't "have a feel" for any long term consequences to Nevada's gambling industry.
Lungstrum said 60,000 new jobs are expected to be created in Nevada this year for a 4.5 percent statewide growth rate.
There are more than 800,000 people employed now in Nevada
While Las Vegas will produce 8.4 percent more jobs, Murdock says the growth in the Reno area will be 3.5 percent in 1999.
"Seven out of ten jobs are in Las Vegas," Murdock said.
While there will be an increase in the number of jobs, the unemployment rate is expected only to inch up from its present 4.5 percent a few tenths of a percent.
In a "heated" jobs economy, Murdock said many people change jobs and many come from other states to take advantage of the employment opportunities. That will account for the slight rise in unemployment.
Nevada's more than 44,000 employers pay into a trust fund used to finance unemployment benefits for those out of work. The tax rate ranges from .25 percent for those companies with low employee turnover to 5.4 percent for those with high turnover. The tax in 1999 will be paid on the first $18,600 of wages for a worker.
More than 60 percent of the businesses are taxed at less than 1 percent. Only 3.3 percent or 716 employers pay the maximum 5.4 percent. All new employers, with less than three years' experience, pay 2.95 percent.
There will be $414.6 million in the trust fund at the end of this year. Maintaining a 1.4 percent tax rate will yield slightly more than is expected to be paid out next year. At the end of 1999, $457.2 million is expected in the fund. The average weekly unemployment check will be $216 next year.
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