GOP, Democratic candidates split over effect of Clinton backlash

But Democratic candidates disagree, saying they think voters are more concerned about issues and won't hold them responsible for Clinton's personal conduct in his affair with Monica Lewinsky.

Rep. John Ensign, R-Nev., said he thinks the issue will help him in his race against Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev.

"It could have a dramatic effect on Democrats like (President Nixon's resignation after the Watergate scandal) had on Republicans in 1974," Ensign said, adding it could keep many Democratic voters away from the polls.

In the wake of the Watergate scandal, Democrats picked up four seats in the Senate and 49 seats in the House, including that of Rep. David Towell, R-Nev.

In the state Legislature, Republicans lost three Senate and six Assembly seats.

But Reid said Ensign would fail if he tries to link him with Clinton's troubles.

"This election is about Harry Reid and what I have done," he said. "I am not running with President Clinton. People in Nevada know about my personal life. This is a Nevada race."

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jan Jones agreed, saying she does not think the scandal will have any influence on her race.

"I don't think it plays in Nevada," said the Las Vegas mayor. "The president's personal problems don't impact health care or education in Nevada. We face some huge issues ... Those issues will bring voters to the polls."

But Republican gubernatorial candidate Kenny Guinn said he thinks Clinton's problems will help GOP candidates.

"If what we are hearing in the news is true, it will cause great disillusionment to those who have supported Bill Clinton in the past," Guinn said.

Ensign said he expects Clinton's troubles to lead to about a 7 percent drop in voter turnout, the same decline that occurred after the Watergate scandal.

But Eric Herzik, political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno, predicted only a marginal drop in turnout. He still considers Reid the favorite.

"In a close race, a marginal effect may make a difference," said Herzik, a Republican. "Now it looks like a dagger is pointed in the heart of anyone who supported Clinton. By the election, the Democrats could rally."

While Republicans smell a kill in November, UNR professor Jerome Edwards predicts a backlash against independent counsel Kenneth Starr. He said Democrats might even see some gains.

"Adultery isn't a crime," Edwards said. "It is not an impeachable offense ... I'm not saying adultery is good, but it strikes me that the whole thing was done for political purposes."

But Steve Parker, a University of Nevada, Las Vegas political science professor, predicted key Democrats would be tarnished by the revelations in the Starr report.

"I would be very worried if I was Shelley Berkley or Harry Reid," he said. "Reid had some strong ties to Clinton. He is going to distance himself from the president as much as possible."

Berkley, a Democrat, is vying for the House seat now held by Ensign.

archive