Computer 'nerds' crunch numbers, rake in Super Bowl cash

This is what happens when self-described "nerds" bet on the Super Bowl.

They set up laptop computers in their hotel room to crunch numbers from the NFL regular season and playoffs. They argue about statistical anomalies, bimodal gambling patterns and other migraine-inducing topics only Rain Man could understand. They wear clothes that suggest they not only discuss bimodal gambling patterns, but actually like it.

They win some serious cash.

"We're not here to gamble," Barry Landew said, a smile spreading below his standard nerd-issued glasses. "We're here to make money."

Landew and six of his pals did plenty of that Sunday as the Denver Broncos cruised to a 34-19 win over the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl XXXIII. Rooting less for either team than for the right number of field goals, punts and interceptions, the friends swapped high-fives as the game's final gun sounded, the results marking the 14th time in the last 15 years their "investments" paid off.

When people talk of gambling as an investment, it usually means one of two things: they're casual bettors who think that laying money on a game where grown men wear helmets and face paint is a cute little diversion; or they ought to use their last 35 cents to call Gamblers Anonymous.

But Landew and his chums are, well, statistical anomalies. Unlike the thousands of suckers who kick-start Las Vegas' economy each January, these guys almost always get a sizable return on their investment. And as they took in the big game at Caesars Palace, it was easy to see why: Their approach to gambling is akin to what would happen if Mensa held a meeting in a sports book.

Start with their collective brain wattage. Among the group's members -- or "investors," as they refer to themselves -- are two senior vice presidents for a Virginia technology firm, a computer programmer, a software engineer, a lawyer, a physician and an accountant. Their ranks include three former high school valedictorians, one MIT grad and, in general, more IQ than the entire state of Arkansas.

Next, there's the absurd attention to detail. Back in Fairfax, Va., Landew will spend 40 to 50 hours each January combing through every last NFL statistic he can find before the group makes its annual Super Bowl pilgrimmage to Las Vegas. The 40-year-old senior VP at SRA International then compares notes with a childhood buddy, Stuart Maron, a New Jersey attorney who shares his affection for numbers, sports and betting.

In turn, they hand over their "data," in the group's vernacular, to Jeff Rydant, the MIT grad and SRA International's chief information officer. He puts his big brain and his home computer to the task, cranking out percentages on the statistical probability of various bets.

Then it's off to Vegas, with Landew, Maron and Rydant joined by the other four investors -- Brian Cross, Jeff Sullivan, Maron's brother Scott and another man who asked not to be identified. Once their plane kisses the runway they fan out, canvassing casinos for bets to exploit. They look for the slightest edge, such as two casinos offering different totals on the game's over/under, gauge it against their research and make bets accordingly.

Sound nerdy? Sullivan offers no argument.

"This is the kind of thing nerds are going to come up with," the 37-year-old computer programmer said. "Nerds are analytical. They're people who are interested in looking at a lot of data and finding things that aren't going to jump out to the casual observer."

One example: Casinos were offering bets on whether the combined points scored by Denver and Atlanta would be an odd or even number. Landew's research showed that the total score of most of the two teams' games this season, as well as the 32 previous Super Bowl contests, was an odd number. The teams combined for 53 points, bringing the group a tidy little sum -- and all on a statistical sampling pool that Rydant called "pretty small by our standards."

The group's somewhat dispassionate reaction to the game stood in marked contrast to the pockets of fans at Caesars yelling for the Broncos or Falcons. The loudest cheers from Landew and crew came when Jason Elam hit a fourth-quarter field goal, but not because the kick helped seal the game for the Broncos. Rather, the over/under on total field goals was 3.5. Elam's was the fourth of the game, and his hitting it ensured the group of another winning year.

"It's free money," Landew said, smacking Sullivan a high-five. "They just give it away."

After the game, Landew tabulated the group's earnings off a pair of score sheets he had drawn up. Sixty percent of its picks were winners, bringing in a four-figure dollar amount that will more than pay for the investors' trip.

And the Super Bowl is only small potatoes. The group places season-long wagers on the NFL, the NBA and other sports that net them so much money Landew and Rydant have considered moving to Las Vegas to make sports betting their career.

The two men declined to give out their big-money secret on the record, but suffice to say it's embarrassingly simple. That is, if you have seven guys with large craniums who are absolutely obsessed with statistics, beating the odds and having a whole lot of fun.

"We're not psychopathic gamblers. We don't need the action.

"But," Landew said, his smile growing wider, "we like making money."

How very bimodal.

archive