Mounting retirements plague hopes of Democrats

WASHINGTON -- Three "N's" -- Nevada, New York and New Jersey -- could spell doom for Democrats' hopes to regain control of the Senate in 2000.

Sen. Richard Bryan, D-Nev., stunned his colleagues and political pundits Thursday by announcing plans to retire in 2000.

His decision follows the announced retirements of veteran Democrats from New York and New Jersey, making it even more important for Democrats to recruit top-tier candidates in 2000.

Sen. Frank Lautenberg, D-N.J., decided Wednesday to forgo a campaign for a fourth term, and Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, D-N.Y., announced in November his plans to retire in 2000.

Bryan's and Lautenberg's decisions to vacate their seats this week is a "one-two punch" that could hurt Senate Democratic chances in 2000, said Stuart Rothenberg, a Washington-based campaign analyst.

Republicans currently enjoy a 55-45 advantage over Democrats in the Senate. But Democrats had felt momentum was in their favor as polls continue to show public dissatisfaction with the Republican handling of impeachment. In addition, 19 Republican seats are up for grabs in 2000, compared to just 14 Democratic seats.

Rothenberg said the three Democratic retirements might hurt recruitment, morale and possibly open the door for more Senate Democrats to retire.

"It fundamentally changes the dynamics in 2000," Rothenberg said. "This makes an already difficult task close to insurmountable."

"This creates a huge problem for the Democratic Party," Jennifer Duffy, a political analyst with the Cook Political Report, said. "This gives them one more seat where they are exposed."

Stuart Roy, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said, "Democrats are having to defend seats that are open that they otherwise might not have focused on."

Michael Tucker, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, scoffed at the idea that Democrats will be hurt by the recent retirements. He said there are a number of qualified candidates to fill the vacancies.

"The Republicans might have a slight grin on their face today, but they might wake up in the morning as if they have eaten a pickle," he said. "Our Democratic benches are so strong in these open seats."

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