Nevada's economy to remain solid in 1999

Although the number of new homes to be built in Nevada will decrease, most other economic categories will be favorable in 1999, First Security Bank's chief economist says.

Kelly Matthews, chief economist for the Salt Lake City-based bank, gave a presentation at the bank's "Outlook '99" economic preview Friday.

"The overall 1999 Nevada economic outlook remains solid," Matthews said in his report. "Growth rates in personal income and employment may slip below 1998, but will continue to be among the highest in the nation."

Matthews forecasts gaming revenues to climb to $8.4 billion, a 4.3 percent increase over the projected $8 billion anticipated for 1998. Taxable sales would be up 5.1 percent to $27.4 billion from the projected $26 billion of 1998, he said.

The main reason for the expected increase is the opening of new resorts on the Las Vegas Strip and in the Las Vegas master planned community of Summerlin.

He said single-family building permits in 1999 are expected to decrease by 5 percent -- about 1,200 fewer homes from the 24,050 in 1998. Total construction employment in 1999 is forecast to be 7 percent higher while statewide construction taxable sales should be up by 2.9 percent, he said.

Matthews said while mortgage rates in 1999 are expected to remain at current levels, migration into the state should slow, which is why he forecasts the decrease.

He said Las Vegas-area new single-family housing permits in 1998 were on track to hit the 20,000 level for the fifth straight year.

Matthews projects the 1999 unemployment rate to average 4.5 percent, slightly above the 4.3 percent projection for 1998. Employment growth of 4.2 percent should result in 39,000 new jobs in the state. That forecast growth is slightly below the 1998 projection of 4.5 percent, which puts Nevada first or second in the nation in that category, with Arizona running at close to the same rate.

The projected growth in jobs in Las Vegas (31,800 jobs, a 5 percent increase) represents about 79 percent of the entire state total.

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