Columnist Dean Juipe: Few excuses if baseball bettors lose

Dean Juipe's column appears Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. His boxing notebook appears Thursday. Reach him at [email protected] or 259-4084.

A recent story lamented the problems baseball bettors in Las Vegas were having picking winners this season. Assuming the facts are as stated, it seems a little hard to believe.

Baseball is more predictable than ever.

And if a bettor did nothing more than play the favorites every day, he would come out at least slightly ahead for the simple reason only three of the 30 teams in the major leagues are having what might be termed surprising seasons.

Two of those three -- Baltimore and Los Angeles -- are big-budget teams that got off to poor starts and have stayed at the bottom of their respective divisions. They may have cost bettors a few dollars, at least until it became apparent neither one had the clubhouse chemistry it takes to win in spite of payrolls in the $80 million range.

They haven't produced in spite of predictions they would, and bettors lost accordingly.

The rest of baseball is going true to form with only very minor exceptions of little consequence, aside from perhaps the Cincinnati Reds. But there's a team that has started turning some heads.

A few more turned Monday when the Reds defeated their NL Central nemesis, Houston, by a 5-2 score that enabled them to take a one-game lead in the division standings. The victory also gave the Reds a split in a four-game series that both teams saw as critical in terms of self-esteem.

The Astros, after being swept in four games the previous week by the Reds, were looking to reclaim their position atop the division and dispel any notion that they are susceptible to a team like Cincinnati. Yet they failed in that mission and left town after the game knowing they have a fight on their hands.

If the Reds stay hot -- and they've won nine of their last 11 to vault past the Astros -- it will be good for baseball's overall appearance. It will show a team doesn't have to be wealthy to be competitive.

Expecting to finish third in the division this season, the Reds' front office thought in terms of moderate success at an affordable fare. With a new stadium due to open in 2003, the idea was to develop players at the major-league level a bit prematurely and let them evolve with an eye on contending when the new park opens.

There was also a thought that the team's highest paid players, outfielder Greg Vaughn and pitcher Denny Neagle, could be sold at some point in an effort to cut costs if the team was out of the pennant race.

But suddenly the future is now, although you still have to be skeptical about a team with a losing record at home (20-23) and one that is relying so heavily on a relatively untested bullpen. Cincinnati starters are averaging only 5.1 innings -- although ex-Las Vegas Star Ron Villone went seven Monday -- and that lack of production has thrust the relievers into more prominent roles than expected.

So far, this group of unknowns -- test yourself on the credentials of Scott Sullivan, Danny Graves, Scott Williamson, Gabe White and Dennys Reyes -- has produced and the Reds have become a national story, fitting the stereotype of flattered darlings.

They're youthful and cuddly, a team with some spunk in the midst of a season largely devoid of surprise in spite of what a few short-pocketed bettors may tell you.

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