'Derby II' expected to be a fight to the finish

If you settle in to watch the 124th running of the Preakness Stakes tomorrow and you think you've seen it before -- you might be a racing fan.

If you've discovered that trainer Bob Baffert cross-entered Excellent Meeting in today's big filly race only to run her against the boys on Saturday -- you might be a racing fan.

If you think the post parade looks strikingly like the one you saw at Churchill Downs for the Derby -- you might be a racing fan.

If you think you've seen trainer D. Wayne Lukas come to the middle jewel of the Triple Crown with a Derby winner before -- you might be a racing fan.

And if you think that the Preakness winner will be a Kentucky Derby participant -- you might be a racing fan.

But if you think the Preakness Stakes will be won by the impressive Derby runner-up -- then you might be an overly optimistic racing fan.

Saturday's Preakness Stakes has all the ingredients of a Kentucky Derby II -- the Baltimore version.

Fourteen horses were entered for thoroughbred racing's middle jewel of the Triple Crown, but 12 are expected to enter the starting gate at Pimlico Race Course at 2:37 p.m. Two of the main contenders for the centerpiece at Old Hilltop were eliminated by the luck of the draw on Wednesday.

Bad post positions for Vicar (18th from post 17 in the Kentucky Derby) and Kentucky Oaks winner Silverbulletday precluded their Preakness participation. Trainer Bob Baffert had wanted to run his ace filly -- who drew post 14 -- against the boys but has instead used his cross-enter option for today's Black Eyed Susan, a race Silverbulletday should be an overwhelming favorite to win. Carl Nafzger said his Vicar would not go if he drew another outside post, so he also declined.

This year's sophomore class has been so wide open that Kentucky Derby winner Charismatic hasn't scared away the competition; in fact, he hasn't even scared away the horses he beat in Louisville. Eight Derby runners come back in the Preakness for another shot at Charismatic, tying the record of Derby participants set in 1928.

Charismatic's trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, has been down this road before. The conditioner who holds a record 11 Triple Crown victories has yet to take the Preakness with a Derby winner. Unsuccessful in 1988 with Winning Colors and in 1995 with Thunder Gulch, Lukas hopes the third time is the charm with Charismatic. The recently elected Hall of Fame trainer believes the Preakness Stakes is the hardest of the Triple Crown events to win.

The Kentucky Derby is definitely the place to seek a Preakness Stakes winner. Derby participants have taken the 1 3/16th-mile race the last 15 years and with nine Derby-raced runners in this year's edition it is a good bet that trend will continue.

A popular theory for a Preakness pick has always been the just-miss Derby finisher. Fast-closing Menifee fits that bill this year with his close second after traffic trouble in the Derby.

But Menifee's trainer Elliot Walden will tell you that a big runner-up effort at Churchill does not translate into a Woodlawn Trophy victory. Walden conditioned last year's Derby runner-up Victory Gallop only to watch that one finish second again in the Preakness. Statistics reveal that since 1961 only two Derby runners-up came back to win the Preakness. Prairie Bayou was the most recent in 1993, following Summer Squall who turned the tables on Derby winner Unbridled in 1990.

Of the new shooters, Patience Game seems to possess the most potential. He won the Derby Trial a week before the Kentucky Derby, but his connections decided the lightly raced runner wasn't ready for the rodeo conditions that prevailed in the Run for the Roses. Badge will take his victory at Aqueduct's Gotham Stakes to the Preakness, while Torrid Sand comes by way of a third-place Arkansas Derby finish.

In addition to the disbelief surrounding Charismatic's Derby win, many Derby participants are trying the Preakness because their connections contend they have excuses for their Derby efforts. Five of the nine returnees have trouble lines in their Derby past performances.

The Derby provided such eventful trips that ABC Sports, which will televise Saturday's 90-minute show, is packaging a lengthy analysis of the Derby run. Additional Derby footage with different camera angles and participant interviews will be a featured video highlight before the running of the Preakness Stakes.

Of the "troubled-trippers," Excellent Meeting, Adonis and Kimberlite Pipe all had enough road blocks in the Derby to give serious Preakness consideration. Trainer Nick Zito believes that Stephen Got Even's Derby run (14th) should be a throw-out and that he may duplicate the performance of another Zito-trained Preakness winner, Louis Quatorze, who turned around a 16th-placed Derby finish with a 1996 victory.

And then there's Worldly Manner, who may be the first horse in history to use the Derby as a prep for the Preakness. Although not by design, the Godolphin Racing Stable's runner was considerably "short" in the Derby and could be ready to fire at Pimlico.

Lukas also has the consistent and durable Cat Thief as the dependable Avis horse. His Derby third was the fifth time in as many starts this year that the Storm Cat offspring has finished in the money in graded races.

Of course, there is Derby winner Charismatic. Whether popular or not, he is the only horse on earth that has a chance at a $5 million bonus from Visa if he becomes the sport's 12th Triple Crown champion. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is quick to point out that Charismatic should not be judged by his participation in a pair of claiming races. The trainer admits the son of Summer Squall fooled him and that he is getting stronger and tougher as the Triple Crown trail moves on. Remember, he won from post 16 in the Derby and was wide throughout.

* My picks: Excellent Meeting-Charismatic

Value Play: Kimberlite Pipe

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