Columnist Jeff German: Casinos girding for worst

THE CASINO industry is bracing for the worst as the National Gambling Impact Study Commission conducts its final meeting in San Francisco this week.

Still on the table is a proposal to recommend banning the industry from contributing to state and local political campaigns similar to what is done in New Jersey.

Such a recommendation, if ever actually put in force, could have a stunning impact on Nevada politics, where gaming is considered the most active political player.

What is giving industry leaders cause for concern is that one of the pro-gaming members of the federal commission, MGM Grand Inc. Chairman Terry Lanni, has said he might be willing to vote for the ban.

But that's just one of several recommendations that have caught the industry by surprise in the hectic last weeks of the federal commission's two-year existence, as the anti-gaming members have tended to dominate the agenda.

Last month the nine-member panel voted to recommend a nationwide moratorium on gambling expansion, and earlier this month, it approved a resolution calling for a betting ban on college athletics, one of the mainstays of Nevada's lucrative sports wagering industry.

This week in San Francisco the commission will discuss the final version of its report before presenting it to Congress and the president on June 18. Industry leaders are hoping the final draft portrays gaming in a better light than earlier drafts that omitted evidence about the economic benefits gaming brings to a community.

With this as a backdrop, it comes as no surprise that the American Gaming Association, the industry's chief lobby in Washington, already is putting out its own spin on the two-year study.

The AGA last week released a 97-page report of its interpretation of the evidence before the federal panel. The report minimized the extent of pathological gambling in America, where the industry is most vulnerable, while touting gaming's economic and social benefits.

At the same time, Republicans and Democrats within Nevada's congressional delegation have begun to blame each other's party for the way the commission has soured on the industry.

The delegation members know this is just the beginning of the industry's troubles on Capitol Hill. Gaming's chief critic in Washington, Rep. Frank Wolf, R-Va., is itching to parlay the most negative aspects of the commission's report into anti-gaming legislation.

The Democrats in the delegation -- Sens. Harry Reid and Richard Bryan and Rep. Shelley Berkley -- insist that the Republicans who control Congress, which created the commission, are the bad guys.

And there may be merit to that argument. It's the reason, for example, why Mirage Resorts Chairman Steve Wynn has decided to help the Democrats regain control of the House in 2000.

But last week Rep. Jim Gibbons, R-Nev., and his top aides started suggesting privately that key commission members appointed by the Democrats -- Leo McCarthy of California and Richard Leone of New Jersey -- are the ones who have turned the industry around in recent weeks.

Democrats in the delegation scoff at that assertion. They say it's obvious the commission has been guided all along by Chairwoman Kay James of Virginia and Commissioner James Dobson of Colorado, the perceived anti-gaming members appointed by the Republicans.

Some, meanwhile, say it's not wise for the delegation to be bickering right now.

"This is not the time to be pointing fingers at anybody," says Wayne Mehl, the Washington lobbyist for the Nevada Resort Association. "We've got to work with all nine commissioners to do the best job we can for the industry."

But even Mehl's organization, the local political arm of the casino industry, has had to deal with dissension within its own ranks. There has been talk that a less-than-stellar legislative session for the industry in Carson City may lead to a leadership shakeup, or worse, a breakup of the NRA entirely.

That would be devastating to the industry when it comes time to handle fallout from the Impact Study Commission's report in Washington.

It's another reason why the industry is bracing for the worst this week in San Francisco.

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