Columnist Sal DeFilippo: NFL coaches often lack 'sound strategy'

Sal DeFilippo's pro football picks column appears Friday. Reach him at [email protected] or 259-4076.

Each week provides its share of strange ongoings in the NFL and last week was no exception.

Pittsburgh, which earlier beat Cleveland 43-0 in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the score would indicate, lost at home to the same Browns team, 16-15.

Minnesota's Gary Anderson, who made all of his 35 field goal tries a season ago, missed a 20-yard chip shot on the final play of regulation against the Bears, who returned the favor when Chris Boniol missed a 41-yard attempt in overtime.

Anderson later made a 38-yarder to win the wild game at Soldier Field.

The previously 7-1 Dolphins were spanked by Buffalo; the previously nonexistent Philadelphia Eagles offense posted 35 points in a win over Washington; the Saints won for the first time since the opening weekend.

The unexpected becomes the norm within every seven-day cycle, which is part of what makes the NFL great. That's fine. I can accept that. I can even pretend to understand it.

But some weeks, things happen that simply need explaining. Such was the case in Arizona last week, where the Detroit Lions, who had risen to the top of the NFC with a 6-2 mark, were playing the Arizona Cardinals, losers of three straight.

The Cardinals had somehow jumped to a 23-7 third-quarter lead before Detroit began pecking away. A third-quarter touchdown pass brought the Lions within 10, and gave Detroit's Bobby Ross a pretty tough decision -- go for a two-point conversion and try to get within eight points, where a subsequent touchdown and two-pointer would tie the game; or kick the extra point to get within nine points, leaving the Lions a touchdown, extra point and field goal from victory.

Time wasn't really a factor, but Ross opted for the two-point try, hoping to get in a position to later tie the game with one score. After all, playing for a tie is certainly a sound strategy.

The Lions missed the two-pointer, however, leaving them 10 points behind at 23-13. No problem, though, because a touchdown and a field goal still would tie the game, and there was plenty of time left.

After all, playing for a tie is certainly a sound strategy.

With 5:26 left in the game, the Lions scored the touchdown they needed to climb within 23-19. But here's where the inexplicable occurred: Rather than the obvious coaching decision to kick the extra point to pull within three points, Ross called for a two-point attempt. Essentially, he got greedy -- by making the two-pointer, the Lions could win the game with a late field goal.

The football gods don't reward greedy (exception: Jerry Jones), so Detroit missed the two-pointer, leaving them four points behind. Naturally, the Lions got the ball back and drove to the Arizona 10-yard line in the final minute before facing a fourth-down-and-2 play.

Had they kicked the extra point on their previous score, Ross' Lions could have attempted a short field goal to tie the game. After all, playing for a tie is certainly a sound strategy.

But forced to go for a touchdown, Detroit quarterback Gus Frerotte threw an incomplete pass and the Cardinals won the game. All that was left was Ross' attempted postgame explanation, which calls for further analysis.

"A lot of people will say we're back to being like we used to be, but we're not," Ross told reporters.

He was right about this one. The Lions used to be 6-2.

"I decided to go for two points because I felt we were going to play it to win it. I thought it through. It wasn't a spontaneous decision," Ross added.

I'm sure Detroit fans take solace in knowing he wouldn't do anything that ridiculous on the spur of the moment. Nope, he wasn't caught up in the emotion of the team's rally from a 16-point deficit. This was a calculated effort to increase the team's chances not to win.

But my favorite Ross quote came just before he stormed off in anger, presumably at his ability to answer only one question at a time, considering he'd spent all day going for two.

"I could probably look back on it and kick myself in the teeth."

Sure. Now he thinks of kicking. My guess is there are many others in the Motor City who would gladly do the honor.

For the record

Last week was one of the strangest I can remember.

My favorite play, Indianapolis, covered the number.

For the first time in five years, I correctly predicted the exact score of a game, calling the Rams' 35-10 win over Carolina. But the remainder of the week was abysmal, ending with a 3-11-1 mark that, well, makes it easy for me to remember why I maintain a more reliable source of income.

Top of the line: 3-6-1.

Against the spread: 62-75-5.

Over/unders: 77-61-3.

Straight-up: 79-63.

Top of the line

ST. LOUIS -7 at San Francisco, over 48 -- The struggling 49ers are trying to find ways to cut corners, literally. On Sunday they will start their fifth different set of cornerbacks in six weeks. The Rams' receiving corps will likely just take this news -- and a few passes -- in stride. St. Louis 37, San Francisco 14.

Other games

NEW YORK JETS +2 1/2 at Buffalo, under 36 -- Ray Lucas' play Monday for the Jets should keep Rick Mirer safely on the bench for a while. And Jets admirers like subtracting Mirers whenever possible. Too bad their division is so tough. A late field goal by Buffalo sums up the New York season, totally. Buffalo 17, New York Jets 16.

GREEN BAY -4 1/2 over Detroit, over 39 -- Detroit soundly beat Green Bay earlier this year, the Packers are two games behind in the standings and have lost three straight. But at 4-5, the Packers need some home cooking this weekend, or else they will have a long road ahead of them. Green Bay 30, Detroit 23.

NEW ENGLAND +3 1/2 at Miami, over 37 -- The Patriots' Terry Glenn, who ranks second in the AFC with 837 receiving yards, was blanked in Miami's come-from-behind win at New England last month. Expect Glenn to catch a few Patriot missiles from Drew Bledsoe -- and then watch Jimmy Johnson explode. New England 28, Miami 24.

ATLANTA +7 at Tampa Bay, under 34 -- The last time the Buccaneers tried to lay seven points or more in a game, they only scored six. The offense has been better of late, but a touchdown is tough to pass up. Tampa Bay 10, Atlanta 7.

KANSAS CITY -3 vs. Seattle, under 37 1/2 -- In the 1990s, the Chiefs are 32-8 at home against divisional rivals, and haven't lost to the Seahawks at Arrowhead Stadium since 1990. Even en route to a Super Bowl win three years ago while coaching Green Bay, Mike Holmgren took one on the chin at K.C. Here's another knockout. Kansas City 27, Seattle 10.

PITTSBURGH +5 1/2 at Tennessee, under 37 -- The home-weary Steelers are finally back on the road, where they are 4-1 this season. Tennessee waltzed by Cincinnati to move to 7-2, but the Steelers provide a much tougher dance. Pittsburgh 19, Tennessee 14.

CAROLINA -5 1/2 at Cleveland, over 35 -- Ex-49ers coach George Seifert faces ex-49ers front-office guru Carmen Policy. I'll bet if you'd have told these two guys that at mid-season, each team would be within a game of the 49ers, they'd have taken the news happily. The up-and-down Panthers have an up week. Carolina 28, Cleveland 17.

INDIANAPOLIS -7 at Philadelphia, under 41 -- Donovan McNabb's first start resulted in an 8-for-21, 60-yard performance, but the team did score 35 points. Given that almost fills the Eagles' offensive allotment for November, the Colts have the advantage. Indianapolis 28, Philadelphia 6.

BALTIMORE -5 1/2 at Cincinnati, under 34 1/2 -- Don't expect a slugfest between these teams -- each has reached the 20-point plateau only twice this season. They're a combined 1-15 against teams other than Cleveland. There could be more punts than points. Baltimore 9, Cincinnati 3.

DALLAS pick at Arizona, under 35 1/2 -- Emmitt Smith plans to play this weekend in considerable pain, something the fans in Arizona are used to going through themselves. Sunday is no different. Dallas 17, Arizona 3.

NEW YORK GIANTS +5 1/2 at Washington, under 44 -- The Giants have too much pride to forget that 50-spot the Redskins laid on them in their stadium earlier this year. The Redskins' rally to stop the bleeding, but don't cover. Washington 19, New York Giants 16.

CHICAGO pick at San Diego, under 35 1/2 -- San Diego's four-game losing streak has come by a combined score of 126-29. Their roster is filled with ex-Bears -- Jim Harbaugh, Erik Kramer, Jeff Graham, Chris Penn and Al Fontenot among them. But the only San Diego player that Chicago might be interested in these days is John Carney, the Chargers' reliable kicker. Despite the kicking woes, the Bears will come to play today, winning by a couple of touchdowns, to boot. Chicago 21, San Diego 7.

JACKSONVILLE -12 1/2 vs. New Orleans, over 35 -- The Jaguars will need to get off to a good start to cover a number this large -- fortunately, they usually do, outscoring opponents 40-3 in the first quarter of games this season. Ricky Williams has a tough task, facing the only NFL team not to allow a rushing touchdown this season.

The Jaguars open it up under the lights. Jacksonville 37, New Orleans 16.

DENVER -2 vs. Oakland, over 37 -- The Broncos have won eight of their last nine meetings with the Raiders, including a shutout on Monday night. A high note in a low season for the defending champs. Denver 24, Oakland 20.

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