Columnist Sal DeFilippo: Titans, Buccaneers look like the best of a bad lot

Sal DeFilippo's pro football picks column appears Friday. Reach him at 259-4076 or [email protected]

"Just lose one for the Gipper."

That has been the rally cry for many NFL playoff teams in recent weeks.

"It's not whether you win or lose, it's whether everyone else loses and you still get in the playoffs."

Four teams backed into the postseason in frightening fashion by playing their worst football of the season at crunch time. Just how bad are some of the teams competing in this weekend's wild-card games? Here's a quick review of their collective collapses.

* The Dallas Cowboys: As mediocre as the Cowboys are, their play in the last month is far and away the least offensive of any of the teams I'll be mentioning here. Dallas "earned" its postseason berth by losing just three of its final five games, including a 7-point embarrassment at the hands of the 3-13 New Orleans Saints. Other seasonal highlights include losses to Philadelphia and Arizona and a Monday night loss at Minnesota in which the Cowboys bungled a 17-point lead. Reminder: Dallas plays at Minnesota on Sunday.

* The Detroit Lions: After eight weeks this season, the Lions were the top team in the NFC by virtue of their 6-2 mark and their win over the Rams. After reaching an 8-4 mark, Detroit closed with four straight losses, joining the Cowboys as the first 8-8 teams to reach the postseason since 1991. The Lions find themselves in a playoff position consistent with their recent play -- on Saturday, Detroit plays at Washington, a team it has beaten exactly once in 35 years, and is 0-19 in its history on Washington turf. That one win against the Redskins came this season. It was the Lions' last victory.

* The Seattle Seahawks: Once upon a time, Seattle was 8-2 and coasting to the AFC West crown. Then came five losses in six games, and a gift-wrapped entry into the playoffs courtesy of a missed Pete Stoyanovich field goal in Kansas City, the only team Seattle logged a win against post-Thanksgiving. The Seahawks' opponent on Sunday is the Miami Dolphins, who they didn't play this season. The last postseason meeting between the clubs came in 1984, when a young gunslinger named Dan Marino led the Fish to a 31-10 win en route to a Super Bowl berth. Seattle's biggest advantage is that even they aren't playing worse than Miami right now.

* The Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins were on top of the world at 7-1 and talking about winning the Super Bowl to send Dan Marino out in John Elway-like fashion. Now they're talking about just sending Dan Marino out, period, and with good reason -- although he did throw 19 passes for touchdowns this season, only 12 of them were to guys in Miami uniforms. The Dolphins finished with only two wins in their final eight games, and in one of those wins, they didn't even score a touchdown. Other season highlights: a shutout loss at Dallas, a 23-3 whipping at Buffalo, and a 21-10 loss to Washington to close the regular season that, if nothing else, further clouded the quarterback situation. Another stat that doesn't offer much hope: Miami hasn't won a road playoff game since 1974.

These four teams may be heading into the playoffs on a low note, but statistics will help us eliminate many teams well before the first kickoff. Those with no chance to win it all, and why:

* St. Louis, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Detroit, Seattle. Look this one up if you don't believe me: No team that plays its home games in a domed stadium has ever won a Super Bowl.

* Miami, Buffalo, Dallas, Seattle (again). Another great statistic: No team that has ever lost to the New York Jets has won the Super Bowl in the same season.

* Washington. The Redskins have reached the playoffs 13 times -- but this marks the first time Washington has ever reached the postseason while a Democrat held the presidency. Too much to overcome.

* Jacksonville. No team has ever won a Super Bowl without beating at least one team with a winning record. At this point, Jacksonville cannot make that claim.

That means, by process of elimination, that the Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will meet in Super Bowl. That actually does makes sense, especially when you consider Tennessee's four-game winning streak is the best of any team entering the playoffs, and Tampa Bay has won eight of its last nine. The Titans have beaten St. Louis and Indianapolis. The Bucs allowed more than 21 points only twice all year. It could happen.

When you look at how some of these teams reached the postseason, you realize that anything is possible.

Cokin is No. 1

Congratulations to Dave Cokin for winning the What's Their Line picks contest that accompanies this column during the regular season.

The sports handicapper, who also is a co-host on "The Clubhouse" from noon to 2 p.m. daily on KENO 1460-AM, started with a fake bankroll of $20,000 and parlayed it into $46,000 by going 26-16-1 against the spread.

Cokin, who also appears on "ProLine" on the USA Network, Cox cable channel 34, on Saturday mornings, edged out fellow sports handicapper Mike Lee, who turned his $20,000 into $43,700 by posting a 26-12 mark against the points.

Both had outstanding seasons, although they probably could have made nearly as much by just picking the opposite of what I did. Nonetheless, more than doubling your bankroll is an impressive feat.

My thanks to all seven participants: Cokin, Lee, oddsmaker Jackie Dell, Las Vegas Hilton sports book manager Chuck Esposito, Imperial Palace sports book director Jay Kornegay, KSHP 1400-AM "SportsLine" host Alex Shelton and Palace Station sports book director Rob Terry.

For the record

Best bet Kansas City lost to the Raiders, capping another lousy week of picks, which for me is a redundant phrase. With a 5-9-1 mark against the number and a 4-11 tally against totals in the league's final week, let's begin to look forward to next season.

Top of the line: 7-9-1.

Against the spread: 104-130-9.

Over/unders: 117-123-3.

Straight-up: 139-104.

Saturday's games

BUFFALO +5 at Tennessee, under 38 1/2 -- Most NFL aficionados were floored by Wade Phillips' move to anoint Rob Johnson as the starting quarterback after Doug Flutie held the reins for all but the final regular-season game. But remember the last time these teams met in the playoffs? The then-Oilers had a 35-3 lead in the third quarter when Buffalo's backup quarterback, Frank Reich, led the Bills to a miraculous 41-38 victory. Phillips is just trying to get a head start. This time, his father's old squad gets the last laugh, however. Tennessee 20, Buffalo 17.

WASHINGTON -6 vs. Detroit, over 46 -- The Redskins can't stop the run, but that's not Detroit's strong suit, anyway. Gus Frerotte may be banging his head into the wall near the sideline again, but not in celebration. Washington 31, Detroit 21.

Sunday's games

DALLAS +7 at Minnesota, over 46 1/2 -- The Vikings' offense can certainly put a scare into anyone, but so can their defense. The Cowboys proved in their prior meeting that they can run against the Vikings with a healthy Emmitt Smith. The key will be whether Robert Smith can do the same for the Vikings. Minnesota 31, Dallas 27.

SEATTLE -3 1/2 vs. Miami, over 39 -- Rather than confuse his players with foreign talk about actually winning, Seattle coach Mike Holmgren explains the importance of this game to his squad in terms they can understand: The Seahawks can clinch a berth the divisional playoffs with either a win or a Miami loss. Meanwhile, Jimmy Johnson finds his quarterback, about two interceptions too late. Seattle 24, Miami 17.

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