Tuesday, April 30, 2002 | 10:58 a.m.
With 600 firefighters working to contain a 2,590-acre blaze 35 miles southwest of Denver, fire season already is off to an early start and experts fear the worst for the West.
Warm temperatures, dry fuels and drought conditions in western states could result in a fire season that rivals 2000, fire officials said, noting the worst wildland fire season in a half century. More than 8.4 million acres nationwide burned in 2000.
"Predicting fires is like a spin on the roulette wheel, but all the factors are there for a big season," said Dave Winne, crew boss of the National Park Service's "Vegas 777" handcrew based at Lake Mead. "I don't think it will be very long until we're out at a fire. It doesn't look like we'll have many days off."
Southern Nevada, Utah, and Arizona have reached a critical danger level for wildfires, said Janelle Smith, a Bureau of Land Management spokeswoman with the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho.
"We're seeing fire activity in the Great Basin area a little earlier than normal, and we are concerned with fires bleeding from the Southwest into Southern Nevada and Utah," Smith said. "There aren't any big storm systems headed for Southern Nevada or Utah. We just don't see any relief."
Southern Nevada has been especially dry, among the driest stretches on record in 107 years, said Kelly Redmond, regional climatologist at the Western Regional Climate Center in Reno.
Temperatures in Las Vegas have been about seven degrees above average in April, Redmond said.
Drought conditions have led to a covering of dry fuels that have carried over from last year, when Southern Nevada experienced a mild fire season, said Sandy Gregory, a fuel specialist with the Nevada BLM.
"We did some prescribed burns in Kyle Canyon earlier this year, and even though there was snow on the ground the fuels burned very well," Gregory said. "I don't think it will be as severe as 1999, but fire activity is hard to predict."
About 1.6 million acres burned in Nevada in 1999, including the the Blue Garden fire that charred more than 10,000 acres 85 miles northeast of Las Vegas, and the Rainbow Ranch fire about a mile southwest of Elgin.
This year, firefighters have already battled a brush fire that burned 300 acres in the Las Vegas Wash at the end of March.
Bob Trodahl, fire manager for Lake Mead National Recreation Area, said that a lack of moisture and precipitation presents a dangerous target for dry lightning storms.
"We've got a lot of dead fuels from last year," Trodahl said. "In places like Boulder City and Overton the fuels are bumping right up to town.
"Then you start moving up to 4,000 and even 7,000 feet and it's awfully dry up there, so we're expecting a pretty good season."
Along with careless smoking and campfires, dry lightning storms are the biggest factor in triggering wildfires. Dry lightning could be a good bet to strike in the Great Basin with the way weather systems are aligning, Gregory said.
"We have an El Nino system coming into effect, and that could push the monsoons to the east," Gregory said. "Southern Nevada could be on the edge of the storms and only get the lightning and not the rain."
The Las Vegas Valley is also below average in rainfall, with only 1.68 inches falling this year. Normally more than two inches has fallen by April, with the valley averaging a total of 3.25 inches a year.
A dry winter has increased the possibility of widespread, long-lasting drought in 11 western states, Redmond said.
Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt signed an executive order this month declaring a state of emergency from a four-year drought there.
Death Valley in California has had less than a half-inch of rain since July 1, 2001.
"That's even low for Death Valley, the driest place in the country," Redmond said. "The prospects all point to getting worse."
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