Thursday, June 27, 2002 | 11:02 a.m.
WASHINGTON -- As many as 1,228 people in Chicago could die of cancer within one year of a nuclear waste shipment accident, according to a new report that analyzed an accident scenario in 20 cities.
The study, which used the same accident scenario model for each city, ranked the cities in order of where an accident could cause the most harm. Chicago ranked first, followed by Washington, D.C., and Los Angeles. The report did not apply an accident scenario to Las Vegas.
The report was compiled using Energy Department models and released today by the Environmental Working Group, the Washington-based research organization that launched a nuclear waste shipment website -- www.mapscience.org -- earlier this month.
"This is what the (Energy Department) should be talking about -- we shouldn't have to be providing people with this information," Environmental Working Group vice president Richard Wiles said. "We apply these accident models to each city. The DOE doesn't do that. Before we can commit to Yucca, we have to talk about these things."
The group's efforts are aimed at raising public awareness about the federal plan to ship the nation's most radioactive nuclear waste to Nevada's Yucca Mountain for permanent burial. The Senate is likely to vote on the plan early next month, which would mark the project's final congressional approval.
The new report, "What if ... Nuclear Waste Accident Scenarios in the United States," is available at: www.mapscience.org/plumes.
Energy Department officials have long said that high-level nuclear waste has been shipped for years, with only minor accidents, none of which resulted in radiation releases.
DOE officials, along with nuclear industry and Nuclear Regulatory Commission officials, say the robust, lead-lined steel containers used to ship waste do not crack, even when dropped or burned.
"We can ship waste safely and securely," Energy Department spokesman Joe Davis said. "Anyone who suggests otherwise is just trying to scare people."
Energy Department and industry officials have said Nevada officials and environmentalists are using scare tactics as part of their broader goal to drum up opposition to the Yucca project. A waste shipping accident is extremely unlikely, said Mitch Singer, spokesman for the Nuclear Energy Institute.
"Even if there is an accident these casks are well-protected and it would not result in a release of radiation," Singer said.
One radiation expert said the Environmental Working Group's fatality figures were probably not accurate predictions.
"If you use your imagination and don't rely on accurate probability factors, I guess you could come up with some of those numbers," said Bernard Cohen, physics professor at the University of Pittsburgh. "But these casks are tested and designed to be extremely durable."
Davis stressed that waste shipping information and accident scenarios are outlined in the DOE's environmental impact statement for Yucca Mountain.
But Environmental Working Group officials have said the DOE buried data in the massive Yucca impact statement. They say their website allows users to get a clear picture about where waste will be shipped and how an accident could affect their city.
"We see a pattern here with the DOE, we think, deliberately underplaying information," Environmental Working Group president Ken Cook said.
Their report used an accident scenario model developed by Energy Department scientists at the nation's national laboratories. A train shipment accident was used for 14 cities; a truck shipment for six cities.
In each of the accidents, the truck or train strikes a heavy object at a speed between 30 and 60 miles per hour, under average weather conditions on a clear day. Weather patterns, including wind speeds, were factored for each city. The accident is considered one of "moderate severity," not a worst case scenario, according to the report.
In each of the accidents, the body of the cask is not punctured. But cesium escapes from a crack in a broken seal, accompanied by a modest fire that burns for a few hours. Radioactive cesium particulates are released, which ultimately gives people cancer, according to the report.
The report compiles statistics for latent cancers and population exposed.
Cities with the most severe results: Chicago (349,352 people exposed to cesium, 1,228 latent cancer fatalities); Washington, D.C. (314,250 exposed, 1,080 fatalities); Los Angeles (223,942 exposed, 896 fatalities); Minneapolis (175,884 exposed, 669 fatalities); Atlanta (207,240 exposed, 659 fatalities).
Environmental Working Group officials chose a spot at random within the cities to apply the accident model, in most cases avoiding the most populated city centers.
They stressed that the report is merely a snapshot of a possible accident. A real accident could be more severe, or less severe, than what is contained in the report, based on where the accident occurs, its severity, time of day, and weather patterns.
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