Friday, May 2, 2003 | 10:16 a.m.
AT A GLANCE
What: Kentucky Derby
When: Saturday, 3:04 p.m.
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky.
TV: NBC, Ch. 3
Field: 16 3-year-olds
Distance: 1 1/4 miles
Favorite: Empire Maker, 6-5
Total purse: $1,115,200
Winner's share: $815,200
Weather forecast: Partly cloudy, a high of 70 degrees.
Finally. The 129th Kentucky Derby is upon us. All the hype. All the prep races. All the defections. All the analysis. Hey, it's the Derby.
It will all come together -- the good, the bad and the ugly -- at 3:04 p.m. Saturday, when the horses for this year's "Run For The Roses" answer the post, set to leave the starting gate at capacity Churchill Downs and thunder past the historic twin spires on their 1 1/4-mile journey for racing immortality.
Still in question, however, is whether overwhelming Derby favorite Empire Maker will be making the sojourn.
As of this morning, the Bobby Frankel trainee was still smarting from a small but significant bruise to his right front hoof that has been magnified beyond reality in the final days leading the his appointed assignment as the "horse to beat" for this Kentucky Derby.
Installed as the 6-5 morning line favorite by Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia, Empire Maker is expected to be an odds-on choice by post time to beat a field of 15 challengers in America's most famous horse race.
Frankel, who has won the Eclipse Award the past three years, has a solid Avis call in Peace Rules to complement a two-barreled attack on the only big race that has not fallen to him in his Hall Of Fame career. Frankel has tried the Derby with four previous runners, having his most successful finish with Aptitude as runner-up in the 2000 Derby to Fusaichi Pegasus.
Although Peace Rules is considered by experts to have a Derby distance limitation through pedigree, Empire Maker is by 1990 Kentucky Derby and Horse of the Year Unbridled. The jinx Empire Maker must overcome is that of Derby favorite. Since Spectacular Bid won the Derby as the favorite in 1979, only one horse, Fusaichi Pegasus, has won the first jewel of the Triple Crown as the betting choice.
And, this year's Kentucky Derby is full of those who would like to continue that trend.
Here is the field for the Grade I Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky., with a total purse value of $1,115,200, of which the winner will receive $815,200. In post position order, with jockey/trainer and starting odds:
1) SUPAH BLITZ -- Rosemary Homeister Jr., Manny Totora, 50-1 -- A two-time winner, this son of Mecke has best shot employing a come-from-behind tactic from the rail post. The jockey will become the fifth female to ride in the Derby. Runner has registered two consecutive bullet works since arriving at Churchill Downs.
2) BRANCUSI -- Tony Farina, Patick Biancone, 30-1 -- Won first career race just 11 weeks before the Derby. A San Felipe Stakes third and Blue Grass Stakes runner-up since, this son of Deputy Commander has been improving with racing. More improvement needed to grab roses here. Ships in from Keeneland today. Derby will be first for both rider and trainer.
3) ATSWHATIMTALKNBOUT -- David Flores, Ron Ellis, 12-1 -- Promising son of 1992 Horse of the Year A.P. Indy was a disappointing fourth as the Santa Anita Derby favorite. Won half of four previous lifetime starts. Adds blinkers for Derby trip and has been training forwardly at Churchill Downs since his arrival. Jockey's best Derby finish in five previous starts was a third on Free House in 1997. Trainer's first starter. Owned by Public Storage's D. Wayne Hughes and movie mogul group headed by Steven Spielberg.
4) PEACE RULES -- Edgar Prado, Bobby Frankel, 8-1 -- Sitting on a four-race win streak. Victory in November in Generous Stakes on Hollywood Park lawn was followed by victories in Hill Rise Stakes, Louisiana Derby and recent Blue Grass Stakes. Son of Jules has already outraced his breeding and should attend pace scenario. Fourth Derby start for jockey, who finished seventh on favorite Harlan's Holiday last year.
5) FUNNY CIDE -- Jose Santos, Barclay Tagg, 15-1 -- New York-bred has been in the quinella 5-of-6 lifetime starts with three wins. Son of Distorted Humor ran Derby favorite Empire Maker to a half-length Wood Memorial win while runner-up in last start. Bullet Belmont work sends this guy to Kentucky ready for best. Jockey's seventh Derby mount and first Derby starter for trainer. Has versatile style.
6) OFFLEE WILD -- Robby Albarado, T.V. Smith, 30-1 -- Won Holy Bull Stakes by a head at 27-1 odds. Bounced back with distant third in Blue Grass Stakes. Solid bullet drill recently at Churchill Downs for son of first Breeders' Cup Classic winner Wild Again. Sixth Derby attempt for rider, trainer's first. Dangerous long shot.
7) BUDDY GIL -- Gary Stevens, Jeff Mullins, 8-1 -- The Rodney Dangerfield of Derby. Sitting on three-race win streak. Won Baldwin Stakes down the hill at Santa Anita late February, followed by victories in San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby. Son of Eastern Echo has been sensational in morning workouts at Churchill since arrival. Hot new Southern California-based conditioner returns for second Derby start while jockey makes 17th ride with three Derby trophies already in tow. Santa Anita Derby has been the most productive West Coast Kentucky Derby prep and this guy gets R-E-S-P-E-C-T here.
8) INDIAN EXPRESS -- Tyler Baze, Bob Baffert, 12-1 -- Trainer has taken big Derby hits this year. Big guns Vindication and recent defection Kafwain has three-time Derby winning trainer down to Utah-bred who comes to Louisville via Panama. Beaten a head in Santa Anita Derby in last, this guy was recommended for purchase by Southern California neighbor jockey Laffit Pincay Jr. Baffert promised the ride to the world's winningest rider before a nasty untimely spill force Pincay to retire. Son of previous Baffert Derby runner Indian Charlie may have fate on his side. First ride for youngest jockey in field buoyed by Baffert's Derby successes. Trainer won last year with War Emblem.
9) LONE STAR SKY -- Shane Sellers, Tom Amoss, 50-1 -- Son of Conquistador Cielo was promising prospect at 2. Won Bashford Manner Stakes over the track as a juvenile, but, has yet to win in four starts as a sophomore. Jockey Sellers, who makes 12th Derby start here, is one of two jockey comeback stories of the year (Pat Valenzuela, the other). Trainer Amoss' first Derby runner would surprise.
10) DOMESTIC DISPUTE -- Alex Solis, Patrick Gallagher, 30-1 -- Recently purchased by owners Bienstock and Winner, this previous Baffert trainee has a sophomore victory in the Santa Catalina Stakes. Son of Unbridled's Song will try to avenge sire's fifth-place finish as the favorite in 1996. Jockey finished runner-up in three of his dozen previous Derby outings. Trainer's first Derby starter. Decent exotics a possibility.
11) EMPIRE MAKER -- Jerry Bailey, Bobby Frankel, 6-5 -- Son of Unbridled, winner of three of five lifetime starts. Runaway victory in Florida Derby followed by recent measured win in Wood Memorial Stakes. Jockey-trainer combo best in land and outside of bruised hoof problem and Derby favorite jinx factor is the "real deal." Bullet drill over the track keeps him sharp. Bailey tries for third win on 16th Derby mount, while fate seems to be the only element left in happy Derby ending.
12) EYE OF THE TIGER -- Eibar Coa, Jerry Hollendorfer, 50-1 -- Two-time career winner worked way into Derby field with encouraging runner-up effort in recent Lexington Stakes. Northern California's perennial top trainer makes first start with son of American Chance in a race that has brought trainer's recent aspirants bad luck leading to Derby berths. Up-and-coming rider makes Derby debut. Will need Eye Of The Tiger and balance of fate to win.
13) TEN CENTS A SHINE -- Calvin Borel, D. Wayne Lukas, 50-1 -- Showed much promise early in career with two early victories. Said to be a "head case," but many railbirds believe Hall Of Fame trainer has figured this guy out. Two bullet moves over the track for son of Devil His Due bolsters railbirds' confidence. Jockey's fourth Derby mount is trainer's 40th Derby starter. Beware of big bucks Shine-r.
14) OUTTA HERE -- Kent Desormeaux, William Currin, 50-1 -- Comes here via Santa Anita maiden win, Delta Downs stakes victory and fourth in UAE Derby, as the only Derby starter to have run this distance, in Dubai. Son of Dehere is trainer's first Derby runner while jockey looks for third trophy from 10th Derby appearance.
15) TEN MOST WANTED -- Pat Day, Wallace Dollace, 6-1 -- Every year there is a Derby "wise guy" horse. This year the other son of Deputy Commander is it. Lacked room and still won the Illinois Derby in his last start. He will try to duplicate War Emblem's Illinois Derby-Kentucky Derby victory double. Trainer starts in third Derby while jockey Day, with 21st Derby ride and one victory, is the winningest rider in Churchill Downs history. Most Wanted here is a decent price.
16) SCRIMSHAW -- Cornellio Velasquez, D. Wayne Lukas, 15-1 -- Late entry via victory in Lexington Stakes. Promising son of Gulch has deja vu aspect. Owners Bob & Beverly Lewis and trainer D. Wayne Lukas combined to win 1999 Lexington on the way to Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes victories by Charismatic. Lukas' record 41st Derby entrant and jockey's first ride. Since 1900, no horse has won the Derby from post 17.
Now it's time.
As a public handicapper my selections should be objective and based on merit and solid handicapping principals. Well, be forewarned, this year I'm picking from the heart and pocket.
Not long ago I ventured a future book flyer wager on Brancusi at 175-1 odds. So I will root for Brancusi to make my day. I do believe the best of this group is Empire Maker, but great runners like Point Given (2001) and Holy Bull (1994) came with their worst performances on Derby Day. And you don't need me to give you 6-5.
However, this Kentucky Derby does posses a great betting proposition if you can be creative. Exotics wagering has yielded payoffs by the thousands in recent Derbies. Buddy Gil, Ten Cents A Shine, Offlee Wild and possibly Supah Blitz could produce an explosive payoff even with an Empire Maker in the mix.
Have fun and a great Kentucky Derby day. This is the one race on the one day when everybody becomes a racing fan. Enjoy.
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