Wednesday, Sept. 8, 2004 | 8:55 a.m.
Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or [email protected].
In a game hyped as a matchup of standout quarterbacks Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots host the Indianapolis Colts in the National Football League's season opener Thursday (6 p.m., ABC, Cox Cable channel 13).
One school of thought says to bet against the Super Bowl winner in the early weeks of the following season.
The reasoning has two components:
So far, though, much of the money passing through the betting windows has been backing the Patriots.
New England opened a solid 3-point favorite on the early Las Vegas line in June. Since then, the Pats have been bet up to either 3 1/2 points or 3, minus 120 -- meaning bettors have to lay $1.20, rather than $1.10, for each $1 they're trying to win.
Las Vegas sports handicapper Patrick Bartucci said he agrees with the way the line is moving. He recommends a play on the Patriots as one of his top selections of the week.
"I'm not doing it just because it's Thursday night and a big national TV game," said Bartucci, who is online at patricksfreepress.com. "I'd be endorsing this play even if it was just another game on the Sunday schedule."
Bartucci uses a style of handicapping that primarily emphasizes head-to-head, on-the-field matchups rather than past trends, patterns or situations -- such as the Super Bowl angle mentioned earlier.
He favors New England's Bill Belichick in Thursday's coaching matchup, and likes Brady & Co. against the Indianapolis defense.
"I expect Indianapolis to regress this year," after going 12-4 straight-up last season, Bartucci said. "They could be like the Eagles in some ways -- they'll score a lot of points and they'll be fun to watch, but their secondary is in a shambles.
"I really like Belichick at home in prime time. ... I think the Patriots could win by 10 points or more."
On Sunday, Bartucci likes the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a small underdog against the Washington Redskins.
The Bucs, adjusting to the loss of veterans Warren Sapp and John Lynch on defense, are getting 2 1/2 points. They opened as a 1-point dog in June.
"Although they've had some pretty deep attrition, Tampa Bay is still a very well-coached team," Bartucci said, noting head coach Jon Gruden and defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin. "You know this team is not going to get blown out.
"The Redskins seem like a trendy pick to have a good year ... but their offensive line is shoddy and their defense is also very suspect."
In a third game, Bartucci is backing the Seattle Seahawks as a short road favorite against the New Orleans Saints. The Seahawks, perhaps the most fashionable of picks to make a strong showing in the National Football Conference this year, opened as a 1-point underdog on the early line but have been bet up to a 2-point favorite.
"Aaron Brooks (the Saints quarterback) can throw the ball long, but as the manager of a team and as a leader, he doesn't impress me," Bartucci said. "And the Saints' defense is a sieve. Seattle should run all over them."
Lots of lines
Stretching the concept of "games of the year" to its logical extreme, the Plaza and the Las Vegas Club this week posted betting lines for every game on this year's NFL schedule.
That's a point spread for each of 256 regular-season games on the board at the downtown casinos, which were purchased by Barrick Gaming Corp. in March.
Odds are "locked in" at the time of the wager and stay in effect regardless of subsequent line moves, just as in traditional betting. This gives gamblers the option of betting multiple times on the same game to take advantage of favorable moves, said sports book director Lou D'Amico.
D'Amico, who referred to the venture as "stepping into uncharted territory," said he has confidence in his numbers and, barring wild cards such as injuries and weather, doesn't expect a whole lot of movement in the lines.
Stardust tournament
The 2004 Stardust Invitational football handicapping tournament begins at 9 p.m. Friday with David Stratton, last year's champion, facing Fezzik, last year's runner-up, at the Stardust race and sports book.
The single-elimination tournament, which carries a $10,000 prize, continues each week through the football season. Each man makes seven selections against the point spread.
This year's field of 16 includes Stratton and Fezzik as well as pro handicappers Ted Sevransky, Al McMordie, Trace Fields, Mark Franco, Dave Malinsky, Kevin O'Neill and Rob Veno; oddsmakers Vinnie Magliulo, Jimmy Vaccaro and Cesar Robaina; poker ace Brent Carter; radio personality Papa Joe Chevalier; statistics professor Mike Orkin; and longtime pro bettor Pete White (father of Las Vegas Sports Consultants CEO Kenny White).
Although there is no betting on the outcome of the tournament in Nevada, a major offshore sports book has made Fezzik a minus 122 favorite to defeat Stratton, and approximately an 8-1 favorite to win the event.
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