Wednesday, Jan. 5, 2005 | 9:35 a.m.
Political watchers and consultants say the race for Janet Moncrief's seat on the Las Vegas City Council is still too close to call, but some said Moncrief's battle against recall is helped by the addition of a second challenger because opponents may end up splitting the votes of those opposed to keeping Moncrief in office.
Former Clark County School Board member Lois Tarkanian was apparently successful in her effort to join Vicki Quinn Moncrief as candidates in the Jan. 25 recall election, the city clerk said Tuesday.
Tarkanian's candidate nominating petition was expected to be formally approved today, City Clerk Roni Romenus said. After a check by the Clark County Election Department on Tuesday of a random sample of 500 signatures from Tarkanian's candidate nominating petition, Ronemus said the department determined Tarkanian's petition had at least 2,869 signatures from registered voters in the city's Ward 1. Only 2,106 were needed to make Tarkanian eligible for the ballot.
Tarkanian and Quinn, an activist for the disabled, are expected to formally accept their places on the recall ballot today. Early voting for the Jan. 25 election is scheduled for Jan. 21 and 22.
Steve Forsythe, a Republican campaign consultant who ran Tarkanian's school board campaigns, said having two challengers helps the embattled incumbent because they will have to share the unhappy voters.
"If there's two options to vote for against Moncrief, that split may be how she can salvage it," Forsythe said about the election.
David Damore, an assistant political science professor at UNLV, agreed, and added that Moncrief may also be helped by some voter opposition to forcing an elected official from office before their term expires.
"The bigger the field the better for Moncrief," Damore said. "There's probably a fair amount of voters who say I'm not going to vote against this person ... and I think there's some segment of the population that is philosophically against a recall."
Forsythe, who said he has given Tarkanian some advice recently but is not otherwise involved in this campaign, said his former client has a "huge name identification advantage" because much of Ward 1 was also part of the school board district she represented from 1989 to 2000, and the County Commission district she ran for unsuccessfully in 2000.
"The likelihood that people in that core voted for Lois at least once is pretty good," Forsythe said.
Forsythe said the keys to this election for Moncrief and Tarkanian will be to get their supporters to knock on doors and speak with voters, while he said Quinn probably needs to spend some money on sending mail pieces to voters so they become more familiar with her.
But the biggest impact on the race could come from developments in the issues Moncrief's opponents cite as reasons they want her out of office, they said.
Her opponents have said Moncrief is unable to block unwanted development from their neighborhoods. They point specifically to a controversial Social Security building that was approved by a split council in December 2003, but has since been ensnared in a legal battle brought by residents.
If somehow that decision is reversed, either by the council now or the courts, Moncrief would receive a big boost, Forsythe said.
Moncrief's critics have also pointed to the looming charges of filing false campaign finance reports against the councilwoman.
Moncrief has said she did all she could to block the Social Security building, and is innocent of the criminal charges against her.
"Ultimately the indictment is the wildcard," Damore said.
Gary Gray, a political consultant who ran Councilman Steve Wolfson's successful campaign, said the indictment will obviously work against Moncrief, adding that she also must address the perception that she doesn't work well with her fellow council members.
But Gray said even if Moncrief beats the charges, there will still be the lingering effects of voters reading and hearing about the indictment during the proceeding months.
Gray also said he believes the name recognition of the candidates, and having several candidates in the field are both over-emphasized factors.
Gray said the election will come down to whoever can best get their message to the voters, "and who has enough money to get their message out."
He estimated the candidates will need at least $150,000 each for the short campaign.
Quinn said Tuesday that she has already received more than $100,000.
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