Wednesday, June 8, 2005 | 9:13 a.m.
Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or [email protected].
MARTINGALE: A betting system in which a gambler doubles his bet after each loss hoping to get even. While it may or may not have success in the short run, the martingale, like all so-called betting systems, is a long-term loser. Most systems are variations of the martingale or the anti-martingale.
In his fine text first published last year, "Betting Baseball: A New Approach," handicapper Michael Murray tells bettors to tread carefully around starting pitchers who throw an inordinately high number of pitches in a particular game.
Young pitchers should be watched especially carefully, Murray says.
He sets pitch-count guidelines bettors should be aware of, based on a starter's age: Major league pitchers under 20 years old should never throw more than 100 pitches in a game, Murray says, pitchers 20-22 should not exceed 115 pitches, and pitchers 23-24 should not exceed 125 pitches.
He also mentions several "old-school" managers likely to push pitchers harder than usual, including Jack McKeon, Dusty Baker, Felipe Alou, Bob Melvin and Tony LaRussa.
This is a solid approach to one of baseball's "hidden" statistics that can lead to skewed betting lines in subsequent games involving those pitchers.
In fact, bettors should keep an eye even on older pitchers who record higher-than-average pitch counts in a particular game. As Murray points out, this can lead to reduced effectiveness or injury, and it might not always be accounted for in the betting line.
Here's a sampling of some recent egregious offenders in this category who perhaps should be watched closely in the coming days by baseball gamblers:
On the air
To paraphrase the old Roger Waters album, there could be some "radio chaos" in Las Vegas this week.
Professional sports bettor Fezzik, seasonal host of the popular gambling program "You Can Bet On It," said he will debate controversial video poker author Rob Singer on Friday's edition of the show (KENO 1460-AM, 2-3 p.m.).
Fezzik (one name only, please) has been critical of Singer's unorthodox methods, referring to the self-styled video poker guru as a "quack."
Singer (online at vptruth.com) gets his chance to fire back Friday.
Our take: It seems to us that much of Singer's strategy can be boiled down to the adage "Quit while you're ahead." This is actually pretty good advice for the average -- that is, clueless -- Las Vegas tourist, though it won't get the money in the long run.
Other aspects of Singer's methods, however, veer dangerously close to the land of the martingale -- a system that can be devastating to a gambler's bankroll.
Regardless, we plan to tune in to what promises to be an entertaining show.
The program is archived online at cardplayer.com.
New hire
Highly respected oddsmaker Rich Baccellieri has joined the Palms as that property's sports book manager.
Baccellieri has previously held similar positions in the sports books at Caesars Palace and the MGM Grand.
Baccellieri said his first several days in the book have been particularly busy due to overflow crowds from the Palms No-Limit Hold 'em Summer Series, a big poker tournament at the Flamingo Road resort that runs through July 10.
Olympics prop
Monday's report from the International Olympic Committee on the site of the 2012 Olympic Games helped make Paris an overwhelming favorite to win the July 6 vote to host the games of the XXX Olympiad, according to odds at offshore sports book Pinnacle.
Pinnacle, which had been taking bets on which city would host the 2012 games since January, made Paris a 1-4 favorite after Monday's report, extremely favorable toward Paris, was issued.
Others in the running are London (odds of 9-2), Madrid (20-1), New York (25-1) and Moscow (50-1).
Wagering of this sort is not permitted in Nevada because it is not on the outcome of a sporting event.
archive
