Tuesday, Oct. 11, 2005 | 8:59 a.m.
Metropolitan areas with the highest and lowest percentage of college graduates among citizens 25 years and older:
Highest
Seattle -- 51 percent
San Francisco -- 51
Raleigh, N.C. -- 50
Washington, D.C. -- 48
Austin -- 45
Atlanta -- 43
Minneapolis -- 41
Boston -- 41
Lexington, Ky. -- 39
San Diego -- 39
Lowest
Santa Ana, Calif. -- 8
Newark -- 10
Detroit -- 11
Cleveland -- 14
Bakersfield, Calif. -- 16
Stockton, Calif. -- 16
Toledo -- 18
Las Vegas -- 18
Buffalo -- 18
Milwaukee -- 20
Source: Census Bureau, 2004 American Community Survey
WASHINGTON -- It appears Las Vegas is the exception to yet another rule: Cities with high percentages of college graduates have a higher rate of job growth.
It's a solid theory. In a 36-page study full of mathematical formulas, University of Chicago economist Jesse Shapiro attached concrete numbers to the premise. He said that a 10 percent increase in the number of college graduates in a city translates to nearly 1 percent growth in the workforce.
The study is backed by previous research that suggests that a better-educated labor force works smarter and is more productive, which drives new job growth.
Shapiro also concludes that workers with more education tend to want more "amenities" -- fancy shops and upscale eateries, hip nightclubs, museums, parks -- which further drive job growth.
There's no doubt Las Vegas ranks among the cities with the lowest percentage of college graduates (just 18 percent), putting it in the company of Newark, Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo and Milwaukee. Those cities follow the rule -- they also post dismal job growth.
But Las Vegas doesn't. Quite the contrary. In recent years it has ranked among the top cities in the nation for job growth.
What gives?
Part of the reason could be simple growth, especially in housing, Shapiro said in an interview. Las Vegas doesn't have the same housing supply restrictions as some of the other cities on the list, he said.
"To have more jobs you need to have more people," Shapiro said. "You can keep building out into the desert whereas some of these older cities have more restrictions."
Las Vegas also shows that cities don't have to have a highly educated population to grow, said researcher Albert Saiz, assistant professor of real estate at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania.
Saiz said there are four main propellants of growth -- education, amenities, geography and immigrants.
"Las Vegas is not acknowledged as a place where there are a lot of high-level, elite colleges and universities," Saiz said.
But Las Vegas has the other drivers, he said. The city has been at the forefront of a national geographic shift in population away from the northeast and Midwest to the South and West, he said. Las Vegas also has some amenities that attract people of all kinds, including sunny weather, manageable commutes, pleasant environment and relatively low pollution.
Increasingly, the city is likely to attract more and more immigrants, he said.
"The question that cities have to ask is: Do you really need that (highly educated) type of growth?" Saiz said. "It's very much a policy question, and requires a fair amount of soul-searching. There are a lot of other ways that a city can be attractive to people."
Benjamin Grove is the Sun's Washington bureau chief. He can be reached at (202) 662-7436 or by e-mail at [email protected].
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