Friday, Dec. 29, 2006 | 7:24 a.m.
Las Vegas handicapper Steve Cofield tends to back the underdog when analyzing a sports betting proposition.
For Saturday night's big Ultimate Fighting Championship showdown between Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz, Cofield is making an exception to his rule.
Cofield recommends a wager on Liddell, one of the most fearsome strikers in mixed martial arts, as a betting favorite of a little more than 2-1 in local sports books against Ortiz, a flamboyant fan favorite.
Liddell has a decided edge fundamentally and stylistically in the UFC light heavyweight (205-pound) championship fight at the MGM Grand, Cofield said.
"I'm not usually a proponent of laying such a big price, but at anywhere up to minus-270 (risk $2.70 to win $1), I would still back Liddell," said Cofield, a UFC expert and host of the daily "Wise Guys" radio show on Fox Sports (KENO 1460-AM, noon to 2 p.m.).
Liddell scored a second-round technical knockout against Ortiz in their first meeting in 2004, and Cofield thinks that outcome was inevitable despite Ortiz's claims that the momentum of the fight turned when he caught a thumb in the eye in the first round.
"He can talk all he wants about getting poked in the eye, but there was no way he was beating Chuck that night," Cofield said.
By all accounts, Ortiz has evolved as a fighter since the first bout against Liddell, but Cofield projects that the "Huntington Beach Bad Boy" will again have trouble contending with Liddell's vaunted takedown defense.
Ortiz, who boasts a solid wrestling background, figures to try to bring Liddell to the floor of the octagon - and keep him there - in which case it could become anybody's fight.
It's highly unlikely Liddell will allow that to happen, according to Cofield.
"Liddell has perfected his takedown defense, and he comes on with such great force," Cofield said. "It's a nontraditional style in many ways, but it works. Tito's only other chance is to catch (Liddell) on his feet, but I don't know that Tito is willing to stand in front of him and go blow-for-blow."
Liddell and Ortiz have each won five consecutive fights since their first meeting, but Liddell's wins have come against superior competition, according to Cofield, including mixed martial arts greats Randy Couture (knocked out by Liddell twice, in 2005 and 2006) and Renato "Babalu" Sobral (stopped by Liddell in his most recent fight in August).
Two of Ortiz's victories, meanwhile, came against Ken Shamrock, a UFC Hall of Famer who was past his prime and overmatched against Ortiz.
"Tito is a good wrestler, and he can be overpowering on the ground," Cofield said. "But if Randy Couture couldn't figure out a way to take down Liddell, I don't see how Tito is going to do it."
After opening as about a 2-1 favorite, Liddell had been bet up as high as minus-245 at the Palms by midweek, according to Palms sports book Director Rich Baccellieri.
"We're seeing very good two-way action with slightly more money coming in on Liddell," Baccellieri said. "There's obviously a lot of excitement surrounding this event, and it's reflected at the betting windows. That makes it the kind of fight that we like to book."
Mixed martial arts' spectacular surge in popularity - particularly in comparison to that other hand-to-hand combat sport, boxing - is also becoming evident at the betting windows. Baccellieri said he expects the Liddell-Ortiz fight to generate more betting action than "99 percent of the boxing matches out there."
For his part, Ortiz hopes to reward UFC bettors willing to take a chance on the underdog.
"You know, ever since I've been in college wrestling (Golden West JC, Cal State Bakersfield) I've never worried about rankings or underdogs or anything like that, because upsets always happen," Ortiz said. "And in this sport, upsets happen more than ever. It's just one of those things; I don't really look at the underdog deal. I guess that's for the bettors. Hopefully they make a lot of money off me."
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