Saturday, May 6, 2006 | 7:45 a.m.
When the starting gates for the Kentucky Derby open Saturday, I'll be cheering wildly for one of the most hopeless horses on the track: Flashy Bull, a 50-1 long shot who drew the worst post position in the field - the 20th spot on the far outside.
Not because I believe he has a realistic chance of winning.
Rather, because I evidently did feel that way in early February - and I backed up my ill-advised opinion at the betting windows in Las Vegas.
Future-book betting allows gamblers to put money on the outcome of a race or game that won't take place for months, or sometimes even a year. It often takes place on marquee events such as the Super Bowl, the World Series or the Triple Crown races.
It also lends itself to great gambling stories - such as how you spotted an unknown 2-year-old and got him at 100-1 in December only to see him go off as the Derby favorite.
Less frequently you hear about futures tickets that go down in flames. While my Flashy Bull bet hasn't reached that status yet, it was not a wager that will find a place in gambling lore.
It didn't seem that way, though, when placed bets on him at 75-1 on Feb. 2 and 3, on the eve of a Derby prep race in Florida - the Holy Bull Stakes.
Monitoring Derby future books around town, I noticed the odds on Flashy Bull dropping to 40-1, even 35-1, at a couple of properties. I figured a victory in the Holy Bull could make Flashy Bull the favorite in the Derby, and opted to hammer that 75-1 before it disappeared.
Flashy Bull finished fourth in the Holy Bull, and his stock rose more a month later when he placed second in the Fountain of Youth, another prep race.
His futures odds dropped to as low as 25-1 in Las Vegas. I was becoming a big Flashy Bull fan as he approached his final prep race, the Florida Derby.
Unfortunately for me, Flashy Bull finished a disappointing seventh at Gulfstream, and his odds shot back up to as high as 100-1 in Las Vegas.
I had already gorged myself on Flashy Bull futures and couldn't stomach any more, so I resigned myself to the fact I had made a mediocre-at-best bet.
In fact, it wasn't until Monday, after 3-year-old With a City died from an undetermined illness, that Flashy Bull's owners got the call that they were headed to Louisville.
I asked thoroughbred expert Dave Tuley, the Las Vegas correspondent for the Daily Racing Form, if Flashy Bull has any prayer of winning the run for the roses.
"If he sprouts wings," Tuley said. "I wouldn't say he has no chance, because that's the surest way to put him in the winner's circle - and I'm not willing to make myself look bad just so you can win your future bet."
Although he's not among Tuley's top four picks - Bob and John, Brother Derek, Sinister Minister and A.P. Warrior - Flashy Bull is not a completely hopeless case, Tuley said.
"As for the positive things, he's the son of 1994 Horse of the Year Holy Bull and a brother to Giacomo, last year's 50-1 upset winner of the Derby," Tuley said. "Mike Smith was the jockey for both of those and picks up the mount on Flashy Bull (for the Derby)."
Flashy Bull even had an excuse for his Florida Derby performance, Tuley pointed out - an electrolyte imbalance that could be fixed by a "horse-sized dose of Pedialyte."
And if he goes off at less than about 70-1, I might have a tiny overlay on Flashy Bull after all.
"If he's at 50-1 or higher I'll be sure to have a saver win bet on him myself," Tuley said, "in case he's this year's Giacomo."
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