Major role for Nevada in November

By Jon Ralston

Friday, April 4, 2008 | 2:01 a.m.

Psst, Nevada Democrats: He used a blue marker on Nevada.

On Thursday NBC political guru Tim Russert, appearing on “Today,” dabbed Nevada with his blue marker to show a potential Democratic nominee’s path to the White House. And in so doing, Russert made public what national Democratic strategists have been saying privately for some time: Nevada will be one of a handful of states that could determine the presidential race’s outcome.

And after two consecutive cycles of Nevada’s going Republican and every one since 1964 except when the GOP hemorrhaged here in 1992 and 1996 because of the Perot factor Russert indicated he believes Nevada could go Democratic this year.

Even if it does not and I’d still bet against a Democratic nominee’s winning the state Russert’s point that Nevada is a player is truer now than it was in 2000, when the president brought his “sound science” tour here and treated us the way Harry Hill bamboozled the Gary, Ind., yokels, or 2004, when Nevadans proved that fool me twice is shame on us.

This is not just the hometown pundit being a homer. Or hoping that caucusmania carries over into the general election. It’s all about the math.

Russert, who made the same points on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Thursday, said the outlook for the general is that the Republicans are virtually assured of 194 votes and the Democrats of 193. So how do they count to 270?

Both nominees, considering how close the national polls are, may well need Nevada in cobbling together an amalgam of states to get over the top. They certainly will not take a chance of ignoring the possibilities in a state that, as Russert noted, has changing demographics (the Democrats now have a 40,000-voter lead statewide) and a burgeoning Hispanic population.

Chuck Todd, NBC’s political director, amplified later Thursday on the Russert math:

“Check out how Obama can win without BOTH Ohio and Florida, as long as he wins Kerry’s states plus Colorado and Virginia. Or toss in New Mexico, Iowa and Nevada and he can lose Michigan, too. Clinton’s path looks more traditional as long as she doesn’t lose Oregon or Wisconsin. If she adds Ohio or Florida and loses Oregon, she can get it back by adding Arkansas. If she carries Oregon but loses Wisconsin, she’ll need Florida and Arkansas; Ohio and Arkansas won’t do it.”

The electoral map hasn’t had this many permutations in some time. And it’s interesting how it is different for each potential Democratic nominee. If Clinton is the Democrats’ choice, Todd lists Nevada as leaning to John McCain; if Obama gets the nod, Todd says, it is a toss-up.

I think it’s a lean GOP either way, but that’s because I see how large a lead a Democratic contender has to have in Clark County to offset the huge wins McCain likely will have in rural and, probably, northern Nevada. It’s the Reno/Sparks area that could well determine the contest if the Democrats here ever figure out a way to run an urban strategy that pays only lip service to the rurals but concentrates on pulling liberal and moderate Republicans in Reno to their candidate.

Sen. Harry Reid, the man who managed to do that in all of his races, is responsible for getting Nevada thrown into the early mix of important states. And now that Nevada is on the radar after the Jan. 19 caucus, both parties are likely to keep it in the primary and general mix. The Republican National Committee did so this week with preliminary ratification of Nevada’s early status, which, ironically, wouldn’t have happened if Reid hadn’t lobbied the Democrats to get Nevada onto the January calendar. No matter what happens in the Democratic race, Howard Dean & Co. probably will follow suit.

Nevada’s importance also is signaled by Thursday’s discussion of a potential vice presidential choice for McCain. Russert mentioned that if Nevada is in play, naming Mitt Romney to the ticket makes sense because the LDS former Massachusetts governor ran so well in a state where Mormon voters are a factor.

One other scenario in which Nevada could play a role is a not-so-impossible outcome Russert outlined whereby the final tally is 269-269, which sends the election to the Democratically controlled House.

“In that scenario, by the way, each delegation gets one vote, so the formula is not cut and dried,” Todd wrote. “And there would be pressure on some lawmakers to vote their state instead of their party.”

Now how does the Nevada delegation break down ...