Hopkins an underdog in this fight

By Jeff Haney

Friday, April 18, 2008 | 2 a.m.

Bernard Hopkins never misses an opportunity to tout himself as the ultimate underdog, and he means it in both a literal and more poetic sense.

He speaks of overcoming a difficult past, growing up on hard Philadelphia streets and spending five years in prison before beginning his professional boxing career in 1988.

He also often mentions the betting odds he overcame in fights such as his 12th-round technical knockout of Felix Trinidad in a 2001 world middleweight title fight. Although Hopkins exaggerates his underdog status in the fight by citing a 5-1 betting line when it was actually closer to 5-2, his point is well taken.

“Almost nobody gave me a chance,” Hopkins said. “Trinidad was undefeated going into the fight. He was supposed to have the most dangerous left hook in the sport. Almost everybody in the media had me losing, and I rose up and got it done.

“I’ve been an underdog my whole life. I love being the underdog.”

Although he has been a solid favorite in several of his major fights, Hopkins will enter the ring as an underdog for the fourth consecutive time Saturday night against Joe Calzaghe.

Calzaghe, the undefeated Welshman fighting in the United States for the first time, is a minus-270 (risk $2.70 to win $1) favorite in the light heavyweight title fight at the Thomas & Mack Center.

Hopkins is listed at plus-230 (risk $1 to net $2.30) in Las Vegas sports books.

Hopkins won his two most recent fights, beating Winky Wright as a plus-125 underdog last year and beating Antonio Tarver as a plus-235 ’dog in 2006. He lost twice to Jermain Taylor in 2005, as a minus-170 favorite in the first bout and as a plus-110 underdog in the rematch.

Calzaghe is coming off a victory against Mikkel Kessler as a minus-180 favorite. Before that fight, Calzaghe knocked out Peter Manfredo Jr. in a mismatch in which British bet shops had Calzaghe as a favorite of at least 15-1.

Calzaghe was a plus-120 underdog in his lopsided unanimous-decision victory against Jeff Lacy in 2006.

Saturday night’s fight is expected to go the 12-round distance, according to oddsmakers. The round proposition is listed at over/under 11 1/2, with a price of minus-340 (risk $3.40 to win $1) on the over, or “will go.”

A master tactician in the ring, Hopkins has gone the distance in seven of his eight most recent fights. The exception came in 2004 when he knocked out Oscar De La Hoya with a body shot in the ninth round. The round proposition on that bout was “will go” 12 full rounds, minus-160.

The Manfredo fight was the only bout in Calzaghe’s most recent five outings that did not go the distance.

The most likely outcome of Saturday night’s showdown, according to oddsmakers, is a 12-round decision for Calzaghe, a minus-130 choice in Las Vegas sports books.

In other propositions, it’s plus-425 Calzaghe will win by knockout (which includes TKO or disqualification, for betting purposes); plus-900 Hopkins will win by knockout; and plus-350 Hopkins will win by decision.

It’s 15-1 the fight will end in a draw. Gamblers who think Hopkins has better than a 30 percent chance of winning Saturday night — the equivalent of a plus-230 money line — will want to shop around to get the most bang for their buck.

Some fight bettors swear by a strategy that entails monitoring the sports book at properties serving as a base for out-of-town boxing fans in Las Vegas to support their hero. Their bets, the theory goes, can knock the betting line out of whack and create a more attractive price for bettors playing against the more popular, or “public,” fighter.

This week, Hopkins bettors should check out the sports book at Planet Hollywood, temporary home of legions of Calzaghe supporters from the United Kingdom.